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Breakout Session # 3 Sharon Martin (DCMA IAC) Dr. A. G. “Sandy” Amacher (SuprTEK) Claude Speed (SuprTEK) Date: July 28,

Predictive Analysis and Early Risk Identification in Strategic Sourcing Decisions. Breakout Session # 3 Sharon Martin (DCMA IAC) Dr. A. G. “Sandy” Amacher (SuprTEK) Claude Speed (SuprTEK) Date: July 28, 2006 Time: 11:00. Agenda.

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Breakout Session # 3 Sharon Martin (DCMA IAC) Dr. A. G. “Sandy” Amacher (SuprTEK) Claude Speed (SuprTEK) Date: July 28,

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  1. Predictive Analysis and Early Risk Identification in Strategic Sourcing Decisions Breakout Session # 3 Sharon Martin (DCMA IAC) Dr. A. G. “Sandy” Amacher (SuprTEK) Claude Speed (SuprTEK) Date: July 28, 2006 Time: 11:00

  2. Agenda • Introduction to DCMA and the Industrial Analysis Center • Defense Industrial Base Predictive Analysis System • Mission Assurance Model Overview • Overview of Technology Industrial Base Analysis, Surge Analysis and Industrial Capability Analysis Models • Conclusion

  3. An independent Combat Support Agency within the Department of Defense (DoD). We are the Department's Contract Manager, responsible for ensuring Federal acquisition programs (systems, supplies, and services) are delivered on time, within projected cost or price, and meet performance requirements. • Span of Control • 10,454 civilian professionals • - ACOs, PI, QA, Engr, IS, Prop • 900+ locations • 50 major field Commands • Standard Procurement System • Combat Support Agency • Scope of Work • $1.98T Face Value of Contracts • 16,381Contractors • 290,962 Contracts Agency data as of 01/10/06

  4. DCMA HQ DCMA Support Centers DCMA Operational Centers DCMA Aeronautical Systems Division DCMA Naval Sea Systems Division DCMA Ground Systems & Munitions Division DCMA Space & Missiles Systems Division DCMA International Division DCMA Special Projects Division DCMA - A Product Aligned Agency

  5. Industrial Analysis Center Customer-centered organization located in Philadelphia, PA Provides mission critical information and analyses to senior decision makers in OSD, Joint Staff, Combatant Commands, military services, defense agencies and other government organizations. Employs Industry Analysts, Engineers, Financial Analysts, Economists and Information Technology Specialists

  6. Organization

  7. Lead Defense Department Industrial Capability/Surge Analyses for Major Weapon Systems Acquisition, Technology, Readiness and Homeland Defense Programs Directly Supports DoD Initiatives and DCMA’s Acquisition and Combat Support Missions Industrial Analysis Mission Strengthen the Industrial Base

  8. Applications • Planning for and Maintaining Military Readiness • Preservation of Essential/Unique Industrial Capabilities • Defense Critical Infrastructure Program • Informed Defense Industrial Base Investment Decisions • Weapon System Economic/Cost Considerations • Acquisition Strategies • Supplier Reliability and DMSMS issues • Maintaining Future Competition

  9. Customers Combat Support Acquisition

  10. Defense Industrial Base Challenges • Companies impact DOD’s ability to support warfighters by not delivering goods and services as promised • DOD usually discovers the situations after the fact • Result is an inability to meet mission requirements - reduced support to warfighters • Many strategies to mitigate risk – but, to be effective, all require an early warning Challenge - Identify risks early to enable proactive risk management

  11. Customers Management Control Critical Infrastructure Program USD AT&L ASD HD Joint Staff Combatant Commands Military Services Coast Guard Defense Agencies ASD HA Models Data Processing Analysis Center Information Data Bases Inputs Outputs Risk Assessments/ Management Reports Industrial Assessment USD AT&L Missile Defense Agency ASA ALT ASN RDA ASAF ACQ MARCORSYSCOM HQ AMC AFMC Buying Commands Securities & Exchange Commission IAC Staff Assessments DCIP Environmental Protection Agency Alert Risk Factors Industry Surge S/W Process Algorithm Support Contractors Bureau of Labor Statistics Industrial Surge Analysis Joint Staff USD AT&L Combatant Commanders Joint Ordnance Commanders AFAAC Army JMC HQ AMC DLA Army War College DAU ICAF Early Warning Indicators Trade Off Agency-specific, e.g. RAMP & SDW Other DoD Analysis Experts Technology Assessments Dun & Bradstreet Performance News Media Technology Assessment USD AT&L Missile Defense Agency HQ AMC DASA R&T DASN RDT&E DASAF ST&E PEO/PM Research/Labs DARPA NATIBO Economy.com Industrial Assessments Financial Other Commercial Additional Inputs Information//Updates Update Data Bases with Corrective Actions Customer’s “What If” Requests Information//Feedback Operational Context

  12. Mission Assurance Model Assess delivery risk against current contract requirements Industrial Capability Analysis Model Assess the ability of an industry sector to support military requirements Surge Analysis Model Assess delivery risk against extraordinary contract requirements Technology Industrial Base Analysis Model Assess technology Insertion and producibility risk Defense Industrial BasePredictive Analysis System

  13. DIBPAS and Acquisition Management

  14. Mission Assurance ModelSystem Objectives • Electronically collect valid business and economic data • Identify and forecast risk for specific contractor sites • Enhance early warning of possible industrial failure • Support development of actionable risk mitigation strategies • Monitor / track recommendations to ensure continuous system improvement Industrial failure is defined as the inability to deliver contracted quantities or refusal to accept the next contract or order

  15. Representative Model Results

  16. Other Commercial Sources Agency- Specific Data Environmental Protection Agency Bureau of Labor Statistics Dun & Bradstreet Securities and Exchange Commission Predictive Analysis Data Sources News Media Articles by Company and State Transformation Normalized Data Model Lexical Analysis Engine Scores Results

  17. Home Page

  18. Model Results

  19. Model Element Drill-Down

  20. Raw Element Drill-Down

  21. Technology Industrial Base Analysis Model System Objectives • Electronically collect data to enable determinations about a technology’s readiness for production and insertion into the warfighting infrastructure. • Assess technology development risk, i.e. evaluate technology maturity • Assess industrial risks, i.e., evaluate technology developers’ capabilities and capacities to produce those technologies. • Assess programmatic risks - evaluate technology solutions’ alignment with program milestone schedules

  22. Surge Analysis ModelSystem Objectives • Extend the data sets used for the Mission Assurance Model • Evaluate a company’s ability to deliver significantly increased quantities of critical military items • Assess delivery risk against extraordinary contract requirements

  23. Industrial Analysis ModelSystem Objectives • Extend the data sets used for the Mission Assurance Model • Extract data from DoD, non-DoD government, commercial sources and the media • Assess the ability of an industry sector to support military requirements

  24. Predictive Analysis SystemCapabilities • Improved Risk Management: • Increased visibility of potential risks • Ability to proactively influence outcomes related to risks • Ability to reduce risks

  25. Predictive Analysis SystemCapabilities • Flexibility to identify risks in a variety of functional situations • Financial • Business • Industrial • Programmatic • Technology

  26. Predictive Analysis SystemCapabilities • Ability to support the complete acquisition life cycle • Market research • Pre-award screening • Post award performance monitoring

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