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The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings

Discover in-depth insights from the Aiken County exit poll conducted by Professor Bob Botsch and Erin McCulloch, revealing trends, party loyalties, and societal shifts in voter behavior. Download the comprehensive report now.

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The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings

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  1. The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll:Overview of Key Findings Performed by the APLS 301 class Professor Bob Botsch, Director Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant

  2. Methodology • N = 753 • Sample design: • 10 representative precincts • Stratified by gender, region of county. Precinct size • Systematic sampling • Two time clusters • Response rate: 70% • Sample error: +/- 4% • Successfully matched presidential vote • Romney: actual 63%; sample 60% • Obama: actual 36%; sample 37%

  3. 2012 Vote by Party: an exercise in party loyalty—GOP advantage: 51%/33%

  4. Distant Hints of Change: Groups of Voters Trending Toward Democrats

  5. How These Groups are Different

  6. Decline on Tea Party Support • Tea Party supporters among 2010 voters: 42% • Tea Party supporters among 2012 voters: 30%

  7. Tea Party Republicans Generally to the Far Right of Other Pty Groups

  8. Continued-1 Non TP Rep’s

  9. Continued-2

  10. Continued-3

  11. Continued-4

  12. Independents closer to Dem on issues, but did not vote for Obama – Why? Ethnicity!

  13. Ethnic Antipathy (Blacks too much power; Muslim; ConfedFlag) Predicts Vote Among Whites

  14. The Gender/Marriage Gap in Aiken County and the Nation

  15. Conclusions • County heavily loyal to GOP • But some warning signs for the future—groups driving change • Young/single/in-migrants • More socially moderate • Tea Party support lower • Tea Party Republicans quite different across range of issues/attitudes/identities • Obama hurt by white independent vote—increasing ethnic polarization • Ethnic antipathy a major factor—as important as party (and intertwined with party) • Little Gender Gap, but large Republican Marriage Gap and large Democratic Singles Gap—Singles only group that mirror national gap

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