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Exploring Cholera: Epidemics, Their Impact, and Predictive Modeling

This interactive module investigates the natural history and impact of Vibrio cholerae, the bacterium responsible for cholera pandemics. Students will analyze cholera outbreaks from various demographics and geographies, assess data related to environmental factors, and model disease transmission dynamics. Emphasizing data analysis skills, participants will work with online resources to visualize and interpret outbreak data, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of cholera's social and medical implications.

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Exploring Cholera: Epidemics, Their Impact, and Predictive Modeling

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  1. Cholera: Next Door? BioQUEST 2012

  2. Module Design • Case Study Format • Learning Objectives • Resources • Data Analysis & Visualization • Tools • Statistics • Assessment

  3. Learning Objectives: • In this module, students will: • (1) investigate the natural history of Vibriocholerae, a pathogenic bacterium of global and historical significance. Use their knowledge of the organism’s biology to predict conditions favorable for epidemics. • (2) compare and contrast cholera outbreaks from multiple locations. Determine whether demographic, environmental, or other variables are associated with an epidemic’s magnitude of impact. • (3) model (or predict or explain) potential modes of disease transmission and/or dynamics of disease spread during an epidemic. • (4) improve foundational skills in: • searching and obtaining data available online; • evaluating quality of datasets from a variety of sources; and • interpreting, analyzing, and visualizing diverse types of data

  4. Online Resources: News & Media • http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=44401&utm_source=catholic.org%2Fhomepage&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=latest%2Bnews - Catholic Online, posted 1/13/12 • http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/health/haitian-cholera-epidemic-traced-to-first-known-victim.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=cholera%20haiti&st=cse - discovery of first cholera case in Haiti, NYT 1/10/12 • http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=144929218 - discovery of first cholera case in Haiti Natural history, symptoms, epidemiology, general information • http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs107/en/index.html - WHO • http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001348/ - PubMed Health • http://www.cdc.gov/cholera/general/ • http://www.cdc.gov/haiticholera/ - CDC

  5. Online Resources: Accounts, reports of outbreaks • http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/cholera/en/index.html - periodic updates about outbreaks globally Profiles of Countries with Cholera • http://www.who.int/cholera/countries/en/index.html - general information (geographic, economic, environmental) for countries with cholera in their histories Data • http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=2250 - cases, deaths, fatality rates by country, year • http://www.who.int/cholera/statistics/en/index.html - articles compiled annually with raw data • http://www.who.int/gho/epidemic_diseases/cholera/en/index.html - maps with data for cases, fatalities • http://emergency.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/data.asp - stratified by region and demographics

  6. Online Resources: Maps • http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx - WHO Cholera Map Library • http://emergency.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/staticmaps.asp - multiple static maps (distribution of outbreaks, cumulative attack rates, etc) • http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/cholera/atlas.html - interactive http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/CholeraHispaniola/atlas.html - interactive • http://www.bt.cdc.gov/situationawareness/haiticholera/Flash/bt/atlas.html - interactive, multiple filters and resolutions

  7. http://books.google.com/books?id=LIYaAAAAMAAJ&lpg=PA173&ots=3A_xyGSTMb&dq=Cholera%20epidemic%20map%20of%20Nashville%2C%20Tennessee%2C%201873%20%2F%20Ely%20McClellan.&pg=PP11#v=onepage&q&f=truehttp://books.google.com/books?id=LIYaAAAAMAAJ&lpg=PA173&ots=3A_xyGSTMb&dq=Cholera%20epidemic%20map%20of%20Nashville%2C%20Tennessee%2C%201873%20%2F%20Ely%20McClellan.&pg=PP11#v=onepage&q&f=true

  8. Cholera epidemic map of Nashville, Tennessee, 1873 / Ely McClellan. http://www.nlm.nih.gov/exhibition/cholera/images/a024226.jpg

  9. http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map231_ver5.pdfhttp://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map231_ver5.pdf

  10. www.bit.ly/w6m9YO

  11. Pam American Health OrganizationInteractive map • http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/CholeraHispaniola/atlas.html

  12. Statistical Analysis • 1) Finding the “RIGHT” parameters • a) Sanitation • b) Population Density • c) Environmental Conditions • d) Non availability of Clean water • e) Limited Access to health care • f) General Awareness of disease spread • etc……..

  13. Crunching the Data • Approach • 1) Undergraduate Level • a) Study the data set • b) Descriptive statistics • c) Plot the data • d) Use Regression Approach • e) Find the optimal model • f) Run the model diagnostics

  14. Crunching the Data • Approach • 2) Graduate Level • a) All above • b) Non-normal distribution • c) Poisson Modeling • c) MLE approach • d) Bayesian Model • e) Find the optimal model • f) Run the model diagnostics

  15. Assessment • Pre/Post-Test Assessment • Learning & Thinking Skills • Presentations, Activities, Group Work • Science Process Skills • Solving problems, critical thinking, testing hypothesis • Attitudes Toward Science • Comfort & confidence • Module Content • Background info, mode of action & transmission, data analysis tools

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