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Digital Futures 2050’s visions inspiring 2020’s policies. Brainstorming with the CRIS Community Brussels, 11 September 2012. Franco Accordino Head of Task Force "Digital Futures" DG CONNECT, European Commission. Mission.
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Digital Futures2050’s visions inspiring 2020’s policies Brainstorming with the CRIS Community Brussels, 11 September 2012 Franco Accordino Head of Task Force "Digital Futures" DG CONNECT, European Commission
Mission “Digital Futures is a participatory visioning project aiming to devise 2050’s visions & policy ‘routes’ underpinned by the long term advances of ICT” inspire future strategic choices
Purpose: inform future strategic choices Futures 2040-2050 • Evidence • Participation • Agility 2040-2050 Inspire strategic choices 2035-2045 Policy Frameworks Policy Options 2015-2025 (?) 2010-2020 (Europe 2020) EC mandates 2010-2014 2015-2019 2035-2039 2040-2044 Barroso II
Engagement strategy 1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders • Standard format: participatory brainstorming • Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,… • Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings • Going local: Member States, schools, conferences… • Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules 2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium) • Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow • Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,… • Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding • Agent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013) emergent collective intelligence
Trends Real world Build on scientific evidence & people‘s opinion to inform policy decisions Futures (Visions) Other factors than evidence Inspire Envision DESIGN Stakeholders Inform ScientificEvidence Policies (Re-)shape Policy makers IMPLEMENTATION / REVIEW Sense & Analyse data, Identify issues and challenges, Elicit knowledge Impact on individuals, society, economy, environment, politics, technologies,…
Trend Every European Digital Meta-model to engage stakeholders 2012 2020 2050 Future • Futures: • Desirability (emotional view) • Likelihood (rational/scientific view) • Causality: antecedent->consequent • Forecasting vs. back casting Futures (visions) Future Future Future Future Future DAE Policy Policy Policies pillars actions • Policies: • Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T. objectives • May be structured (e.g. pillars) • Atomic level: timed actions • Have a measurable impact • Other measurable attributes (e.g. plausibility, innovation, …) p1 p7 p p A1 A101 A A A A A A • Agents: • Stakeholders in broad sense (EC, MS, Regions, Industry, Citizens…) • Implementers (those who execute the actions) • Verifiers • Decision makers A B C ? @ # Agents
Lock Lock Unlock Digital Futures workflow START CREATING ONLINE (Oct 2012) START WITH A CONVERSATION (Mar 2012) Conversation on Futures Co-create (wiki) and synthesise Futures (outlined form) Futures (detailed form) Back/Fore cast, analyse & vote ready? Prioritised Futures NO YES Co-create (wiki) and synthesise Conversation on policies Policy options (detailed form) Policy options (outlined form) (Dec 2012) Reality check, analyse & vote ready? Prioritised Policies NO YES
Digital Futures achievements(July 2012) • 70+ conversations in person/online , 20+ interviews • 100+ mind maps, 16 draft trends, 8 draft visions… • Engaging non usual partners (schools, youth associations, …) • Meta-model and its experimental implementation • Test phase till 30 September 2012 @ www.futurium.eu • Next milestones: • Click&Join futurium as of 01/10/12 @ www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures • Digital Future conversations in the pipeline: • Presidency event with youth, 14-15/09 • EP event, 27 Nov 2012 • Going local campaign, Sep-Dec 2012 • Futures @ World Foresight Forum, April 2013 • Final event, Nov 2013 • … • Releases of visions an policy options: 31/10/12, 31/05/13, 30/11/13 Building on achievements and best practices (smart regulation,…)!
Technological futures & related challenges (ver. 07/12) Resource efficiency Trans-humanism Climate changes ~Immortality Property, Ownership Sustainability Balanced resource sharing Governance Interim/beta status Trust Security privacy Financial crisis Participative decision Healthy ageing Governance Body/mind adaptation Implanted/ Embedded (bio-neuro-cogno-nano) Cognitive and soft robots Cloudcomputing Complex systems modeling “Organic” computing Bionics and cyborgs Foundations Technologies Challenges/Issues Internet Energy efficient Energy positive “Play & Rewind” Quantum Internet Virtualisation “Conventional” ICT (Silicon based, Packet switching, Boolean, …) Future foundatinos: ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-Quantum convergence 2015-20 2040-50
More emerging trends and visions (July 2012) • Visions: • Environment, energy and space in 2050 • Personal life in 2050 • Economy in 2050 • Robotics in 2050 • Technology in 2050 • Health in 2050 • Social life in 2050 • Politics in 2050 Trends: • Urbanisation (including transportation) • Tension between representative and delegate democracy • Rise of digital natives • Behavioural transformation • Shifting power in geopolitics • Current model of capitalism is running out of steam • Cyber-physical convergence • Personalized manufacturing (3D printing and more) • Hyper-connectivity (e.g. internet, pervasiveness of ICT) • Global Warming • Depreciation of money (governmental monetary policies) • Globalisation and ethics • Exponential rate of technological change • Renaissance of space exploration • Instability through instrumentalisation of religion • Scarcity of natural resources (including energy) Work in progress @ http://www.futurium.eu/all-editable-futures
Thanks http://ec.europa.eu/digital-futures http://www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures(as of 1 Oct 2012)
The conversation of the day with euroCRIS Voting & selection Open circle (all suggest topics) Intro Parallel tables Parallel tables Final closing circle Reporting Parallel tables
Open Data Cloud Real world data Futurium’s conceptual architecture Social Media (Twitter, FB, G+,…) Participate Participatory Tools Participate Participate Participate Data Crawling Policy Makers Stakeholders Data Gathering mine & visualise mine & visualise Knowledge Harvesting Tools