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First – Thank you for attending Thank you for helping put this together 21 Proposals – 1 funded

Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratories

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First – Thank you for attending Thank you for helping put this together 21 Proposals – 1 funded

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  1. Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratories Craig A. Stow, Stephen B. Brandt , Thomas E. Croley II, Julianne Dyble, Gary L. Fahnenstiel, Thomas F. Nalepa, Steven A. Pothoven, Henry A. Vanderploeg Michigan State University Scott D. Peacor, Michael D. Kaplowitz, Frank Lupi University of Michigan Tomas O. Höök (lead), Dimitry Beletsky, Carlo De Marchi, Thomas H. Johengen, Donna R. Kashian University of Akron Peter J. Lavrentyev Limno-Tech, Inc. Joseph V. Depinto Western Michigan University Chansheng He Michigan Department of Natural Resources Tammy J. Newcomb Michigan Department of Environmental Quality James H. Bredin

  2. First – Thank you for attending Thank you for helping put this together 21 Proposals – 1 funded $3.76 million for 5 years Some real opportunities And some challenges !

  3. Workshop Goals Meet/Network/Discuss Begin to organize current knowledge Products Initial conceptual (cause/effect) model Work plan for first 2 years Proposal heavy on concept Light on specific tasks

  4. Figure 1. Conceptual diagram describing the Adaptive Integrative Framework (AIF) approach. Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): Research Driven by Management Needs Based on Adaptive Management This process in Saginaw Bay didn’t begin with this proposal 1900s 2007 model model data data

  5. Management concerns aren’t new Muck in the 1920s

  6. 1978 GLWQA Hear ye! Hear ye! By Joint Proclamation Henceforth and foreverafter Saginaw Bay shall meet a target phosphorus load of: 440 tonnes/year which probably translates to about 15 ug/L

  7. GLWQA - 4 Models provided guidance: (Vollenweider, DiToro et al., Chapra, Bierman et al.) Goal - meet drinking water taste/odor criteria Supported by info available at that time The information was sparse: “Overall, the data is insufficient to quantitatively document any changes in bay quality with time. … These conclusions are very speculative and were drawn from limited information.” from: Saginaw Bay: An Evaluation of Existing and Historical Conditions, a 1974 report to US EPA by Paul Freedman. 7 journal articles 1973 – 1978 258 since 1978

  8. The system has changed Public/Stakeholder interests are different Management concerns have evolved Opportunity to reorganize/revisit existing knowledge One of original models has been updated – will help launch/support this study New models will be based on existing and new information

  9. We’ve proposed 4 parallel modeling approaches

  10. Model…? • “toys to tune our intuition” (Stuart Kaufmann) • “tool to evaluate logical outcome of a given set of assumptions” • (Rob Peters) • Short-term: • Organize what we know • What we don’t know • Prioritize what we need to know • Longer-term: • Evaluate approaches to meet management objectives

  11. My Conceptual Model… Algae (taste & odor) ? Watershed inputs (TP) Fish (Sander vitreus)

  12. Model can always be made more detailed • Tricky part - balance detail & real knowledge • Model will almost certainly be modified as we proceed • Should suggest where we need data/experimentation to clarify/quantify relationships • Serve as template/comparison for quantitative ecosystem models

  13. From the existing model • Total phytoplankton production directly proportional to external P load and inversely proportional to zebra mussel density • Blue-green production directly proportional to external P load and zebra mussel density • Selective rejection of blue-greens by zebra mussels necessary to enhance blue-green production, late summer P recycle also necessary • Zebra mussel invasion alter total system primary production, but shifted primary production from pelagic to the benthic compartment due to increase in water clarity

  14. Compound Disturbances, Multiple stressors, and Ecological Surprises Recovery Expected disturbance-recovery trajectory Two disturbance events Disturbance of an impaired system New steady state Response Variable New steady state Paine et al. 1998 Time

  15. Where is Saginaw Bay in this continuum? Source: Scheffer, M., F. Westley, W. A. Brock, and M. Holmgren. 2002. Dynamic interaction of societies and ecosystems- linking theories from ecology, economy, and sociology. In Panarchy. L. H. Gunderson, and C. S. Holling eds. Island Press. Washington.

  16. Schedule for workshop Day 1 Next we’ll hear from the management agencies This will help to clarify the main endpoints of concern Then presentations highlighting the stressor/endpoint relationships Watershed/nutrients/physical forcing Lower food web/algae/benthos Upper food web Break Then presentations to discuss public concerns and workplan Human Dimensions Logistics Lunch Breakout Groups I – clarify associations II – clarify scales Dinner – Grizzly Peak

  17. Day 2 Start with recap and discussion Work groups to address: Field Plans Modeling Workshops Anything else? Wrap up at noon Important This is the beginning of our discussion Being Adaptive will be key

  18. AIF – Good Communication

  19. The Beginning

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