Evidence of Climate Change: Trends, Impacts, and Future Projections
This comprehensive overview explores the evidence of climate change, focusing on global surface temperature trends from various datasets. It discusses the adjustments made for factors like El Niño/La Niña, volcanic activity, and solar irradiance. Highlighted are proxy-based temperature reconstructions over the past two millennia, melting glaciers, and changes in ocean heat content. The implications for agriculture in Kentucky are analyzed, showcasing impacts on corn, soybean, and wheat production. Future projections indicate significant shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive strategies.
Evidence of Climate Change: Trends, Impacts, and Future Projections
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Global surface temperatures for five datasets • Adjusted to remove variation due to: • El Niño/La Niña • Volcanic particulates • Solar irradiance Foster, 2011. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 044022
Northern hemisphere temperatures since Year 200 AD, showing how unusual is this rate of warming Mann et al, 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. PNAS 105;13252, doi10.1073pnas.0805721105
Upper ocean heat content http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/ Based on Lyman et al., 2010. Robust warming of the global upper ocean, Nature Vol 465, 20 May 2010, doi:10.1038/nature09043
Many glaciers are melting South Cascade Glacier in the state of Washington. Photo by Andrew Fountain. From Understanding and Responding to Climate Change, National Academy of Sciences, 2008
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators/pdfs/CI-snow-and-ice.pdfhttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators/pdfs/CI-snow-and-ice.pdf
Ocean CO2 NASA
Sea level trends from NASA http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCooling/page5.php
Peer-reviewed science overwhelmingly indicates that: • Climate is changing globally • This change is primarily (but not exclusively) due to greenhouse gases, especially CO2
Frost is more likely on… Clear night Cloudy night http://jenklee.com/index.php?/clear-night/ http://arambhusal.sulekha.com/albums/bydate/2008-05-15/slideshow/149496.htm
Green color=low carbon output per ton of food produced Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 20 Oct 2011
What do climate models project for Kentucky? http://www.climatewizard.org/
Impact of climate trends on corn production, 1980-2008 Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011
Impact of climate trends on soybean production, 1980-2008 Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011
Impact of climate trends on wheat production, 1980-2008 Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011
Published by The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2011
Forages • C4 grasses will increase • Yield and quality may be similar
Areas suitable for premium wine production Purdue Climate Change Center, 2008
New crop/market opportunities? http://www.extension.org/pages/18358/introduction-to-high-tunnels
Pests and disease will likely increase Purdue Climate Change Center, 2008
What changes in nitrogen fertilization will occur? USDA GHG Inventory, 1990-2008 (published in June, 2011)
What changes in animal production should we prepare for? http://www.sswm.info/category/implementation-tools/wastewater-treatment/hardware/site-storage-and-treatments/anaerobic-di
“Chance favors only the prepared mind” Quote of Louis Pasteur SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 1 : 66 | DOI: 10.1038/srep00066
