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Appendix

Appendix. For the Encore:. NYC Blizzard (Dec 25-27, 2010). Radar/HPC Surface Analysis December 25-28, 2010. NYC Blizzard Dec 25 – 27, 2010. 1012. 1008. 1000. 1004. 1008. 1004. 1000. 996. 1008. 1012. 996. 992. 1016. 1016. 988. 992. 996. 972. L. L. 1020. 1016. 1000.

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Appendix

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  1. Appendix

  2. For the Encore: NYC Blizzard (Dec 25-27, 2010)

  3. Radar/HPC Surface Analysis December 25-28, 2010

  4. NYC Blizzard Dec 25 – 27, 2010 1012 1008 1000 1004 1008 1004 1000 996 1008 1012 996 992 1016 1016 988 992 996 972 L L 1020 1016 1000 1004 1020 1024 1008 1012 1024 1028 1020 1016 1032 1020 1024 1028 1024 1024 H 1028 H 1028 1016 1020 1012 1012 1008 L L 1012 1004 1200 UTC 25 December 2010 1016 1008 1012 1016 1016 1016 1012 1020 H 1020 1012 1024 1016 1024 1012 1016 L L 1008 L 1028 1028 1016 1032 1032 1016 L 1036 1012 1036 H 1016 H 1008 1032 1032 1036 1032 1028 1024 1024 1016 1016 0000 UTC 27 December 2010 1200 UTC 26 December 2010 0000 UTC 26 December 2010

  5. Snowfall Totals

  6. Forecast uncertainty led to inaction that increased the overall impact of the storm Observed – Blue ECMWF – RedGFS - Green Guidance from 12Z December 22 - Wednesday

  7. Observed – Blue 12Z ECMWF – Red12Z GFS – Green 00Z ECMWF - Brown Guidance from 12Z December 24 - Friday

  8. Seven day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  9. Six day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  10. Five day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  11. Four day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  12. Forecast Issued 24 December 2010 Three day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  13. Two day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  14. One day forecast Surface Analysis Valid 12Z December 27, 2010

  15. SREF/GEFS Forecasts for Dec 26, 2010: NYC Blizzard 3 days prior 2 days prior 1 day prior

  16. Short Term Forecasts Point to Potential Heavy Snowfall in NYC and Surrounding Areas • Favorable Jet-Streak Circulation Pattern • Radar Simulation of Snow Bands* * 4km NMMB will be operational for next winter

  17. Model Forecasts: 250 MB Coupled Jets (00Z Mon Dec 28 2010) * GFS 24 Hour Forecast

  18. * * 18hr fcst * * 24hr fcst * * 30hr fcst

  19. Model Forecast: Simulated Reflectivity 33 hour Reflectivity Loop (03 UTC 26 Dec to 12 UTC 27 Dec) * NAM (run on 00Z Dec 26) Simulated Reflectivity experimental 4 km NMMB model (to become operational this summer)

  20. Potential for major east coast storm highlighted 5 days in advance • Low confidence about model predictions – especially track forecasts – until late December 24 • Blizzard warning issued for NYC at 4PM Saturday, December 25 (14 hours prior to onset) • By December 24-25, special effort made to reach out to Emergency managers and airline industry prior to onset of heavy snow in Northeast corridor/NYC • Airline industry takes action • Snow emergency not declared in NYC • NYC/NJ/West CT gets buried by 2+ feet of snow with 50+ mph winds December 26-27, 2010 20

  21. Airlines/airports are prepared for crippling event Cancel thousands of flights Attempt to mitigate impact on national and international flight operations Fully recover in 3-4 days NYC does not declare snow emergency despite blizzard warning – results in major gridlock within city Impacts:Forecast for 26-27 December 2010 21

  22. New York City Report:Preliminary Review of the City’s Response to the December 2010 Blizzard - Report and Recommendations • From Introduction – “On December 26, 2010, a blizzard struck New York City and surrounding areas. Though earlier forecasts had called for only a light to moderate snow falls, the National Weather Service issued a blizzard warning at 3:55 PM on December 25th. At that time, between 11 and 16 inches of snow were predicted, along with high winds and low visibility. Even this forecast underestimated the storm’s ferocity. ” • Third of six key problems – “Insufficient and delayed deployment of City assets. The weather forecast for the storm got significantly worse rather quickly, culminating in a blizzard warning issued at 3:55pm on Christmas Day. Due to the late change in the forecast, as well as the fact that DSNY has adeptly handled large snowfalls so many times previously without assistance, agencies that are not typically involved in snow removal—such as the Taxi and Limousine Commission --were not mobilized expeditiously.”

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