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A STOCHASTIC EQUATION-BASED MODEL OF THE VALUE OF

A STOCHASTIC EQUATION-BASED MODEL OF THE VALUE OF INTERNATIONAL AIR-TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS FOR CONTROLLING PANDEMIC FLU. In this Paper. A stochastic, equation-based model for the spread of pandemic influenza is proposed

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A STOCHASTIC EQUATION-BASED MODEL OF THE VALUE OF

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  1. A STOCHASTIC EQUATION-BASED MODEL OF THE VALUE OF INTERNATIONAL AIR-TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS FOR CONTROLLING PANDEMIC FLU

  2. In this Paper... • A stochastic, equation-based model for the spread of pandemic influenza is proposed • Results regarding the potential effectiveness of air travel restrictions as a disease control strategy are presented.

  3. Framework • A global network of cities connected by air travel is used. • Susceptible, Exposed, and Recovered can travel between cities. • Disease spreads within cities by contact between Susceptible and Infectious. • Outbreak in an uninfected city caused by Exposed travelers who become Infectious while in that city.

  4. Stochasticity Two sources of stochasticity in this model: • The daily number of infectious contacts between Susceptible and Infectious persons • The daily numbers of travelers between cities.

  5. The Model • Number of newly Exposed persons within a city on a particular day: • where λi is the infectious contact rate and Ti is the total population of city i λi (t) = λ (t, latitudei) • Ei (0, t +1) chosen from a Poisson distribution

  6. The Model • With n cities in the model, the net number of travelers into and out of city i is then given by pTij is the probability of traveling from city i to city j • stochastic number of daily travelers to each destination is drawn from a multinomial distribution

  7. Travel Restrictions • Travel restrictions are implemented by reducing the probability of all travel into or out of a given city by a pre-set percentage. • To prevent small fractions of Exposed travelers from prematurely initiating outbreaks in previously uninfected cities, if the net number of Exposed travelers to a city is below a threshold value, it is set equal to zero.

  8. Experiments

  9. Results – Population daily

  10. Results – Population cumulative

  11. Results – Volume daily

  12. Results – Volume cumulative

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