Climate Risk Management: Science, Institutions and Society Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

1. Climate Risk Management: Science, Institutions and Society Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

2. Presentation Outline • Climate and Society Interaction- current status • Climate Change- Emerging trends • Socio-Economic Systems-Emerging trends • Climate Risk Management- CCA and DRR Integration framework • Take Home Points • Exercise

3. Drought 2002 Monsoon Aberration 2002- India

4. Prayers for Rain

5. Though Seasonal total is almost same ,1973 was a Drought year- India (Semi-arid zone) Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale of 20-25 days could assist Critical operational planning In agriculture

6. Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability

7. Long-Term Decadal Climate Variability

8. Climate Effects of El Nino

9. El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines El Nino El Nino El Nino El Nino

10. Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice El-Nino El-Nino Improve technology and extensification Release of HY var., increase of rice price El-Nino Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas Rice Production (Million Tonnes) Import (Million Tonnes) Withdraw subsidy for pesticide Withdraw subsidy, political crisis Banned using 57 pesticides El Niño impact on rice production, Indonesia National Rice Production

11. Climate and society

12. Drought Shocks and Policy Response- India Drought Events 1877 1965 1972 1979 1987 2002 Major Policy Interventions Famine Codes Green Revolution and FCI Scarcity Relief Employ ment Generation Programmes Drought Relief Contingency Crop Plan Drought Management ? ? ? ? Watershed Approach Water Management Each round represent death of one million people Each round represent around fifty million people affected

13. Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production – India In India, national level resilience increased, however house hold vulnerability remains

15. The long-term context for contemporary warming

16. 2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000 Timely and accurate forecast Poor emergency preparedness

17. Climate Change, Variability and extremes Source: WMO

19. Number of flood events by continent and decade since 1950

20. Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ? Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.

22. Developing Countries are Hit the Hardest… (Source: CRED)

23. A Growing population…… • The world population reaches 6.66 billions (2008) • +80 millions /year, • (equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam) • In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions

24. Urban world population Urban population (%) Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004 Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004 Homo Sapiens: an urban species NASA, DSMP 31.6% of urban population is living in slums

25. Climate Forecasting Applications - Bangladesh Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks Crop Zones 1960’s 1990’s

26. Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg. Hazard calendar for Bangladesh

27. Food demand and hunger: • The World Food Summit (WFS) estimated that approximately 840 million people in developing countries subsisted on diets that are deficient in calories • 96% of these food insecure people suffer from chronic deficiencies; more than 25% of children under age 5 in developing countries are malnourished • Significant population experience temporary energy shortfalls caused by natural disasters of hydro-meteorological origin • Reducing the undernourished people to halve by the year 2015 is a challenge

28. Emerging food insecurity- Rice crisis in 2008 Drought reduction in wheat production in Australia Snow storm in China reduction in grain production India withholding rice stocks Vietnam withholding rice stocks International market price shoots up to 40% Rice price in Thailand shoots up in response to global demand leading to prison riots and theft of rice in farms

29. Decreasing availability of freshwater for Human Use (Source: Marios, 2004)

30. Understanding Climate Variability and Change Recent Advancement in Prediction and Monitoring Science • Generation of skill-full, reliable and location specific seasonal climate forecasts through statistical and dynamical schemes • Development of real-time monitoring systems to track the nature of causes and impacts (eg. Satellite meteorology and remote sensing techniques) • Development of climate change scenarios through Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

31. Advancement in Risk Management Technologies • New generation system analysis tools for climate risk analysis, impact assessment and tailoring alternate management/adaptation practices (eg. models for crops and eco-system dynamics) • Economic models and decision analysis tools to guide in managing risks (eg. models for resource optimization) • Development of communication and extension technologies (eg. communicating probabilistic climate information)

32. Potential & Actual Utilization of Climate Information Products Potential Forecast Users Forecast Providers Actual

33. Climate Risk Management- Challenges • Risk Communication • Dealing with uncertainties • Decision research and stakeholder involvement • Integrating climate information into decision making process • ADPC experience in risk communication will be shared

34. Experiences in generating demand driven climate information Eg. Understanding decision options and lead time requirements of end users (Bangladesh)

36. Part 2

37. Graduated Response to Disaster Risks Seasonal Forecast ( 3-6 months) Strategic Decisions 20-21 Days Forecasts Tactical Decision Planning 5-7 days Forecasts Applications

38. Climate Forecast Applications Climate Forecast Applications Process Project Initiation Utilization of Research Products Research Obtain climate information Analysis of variability and predictability Regional climate modeling Down-scaling Experimen-tal uptake Capacity building for upscaling CFA Decision system • Reduced vulnerability to climate risks • Minimize losses • Maximize benefits of good climate Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models Partnership development Selection of demonstra-tion sites Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies

39. Climate Forecast Applications The need: Climate forecast information that: • is localized • timely • in easily understandable language • meets end user needs The issues: • Capacity to generate the localized information • Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users

40. Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication on farmers responses/ feedback Early Warning Information Products End-to-end climate information and application system

41. Provision of climate outlook BMG Translation of climate outlook into impact outlook IPB Conversion of impact outlook into crop management strategies Indramayu Agriculture Office Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers response Directorate of Plant Protection Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Indonesia

42. Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Philippines

43. Climate, Disasters and Society Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh Forecast development and Application technology CFAN/ADPC BMD ADPC /CEGIS Climate forecast IWM FFWC/BWDB Discharge translation Agro met translation CEGIS, ADPC, CARE DMB, DAE communication CEGIS, ADPC, CARE End users

44. Way forward…. Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation Source: WRI, 2007

45. Adapting Climate Risk Management • Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change • Detect observable climate change trends • Confirm observable trends with climate change models • Downscale and provide locally usable climate information • Establish institutional partnership with climate information providers and users • Community based climate risk management programes grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.

46. Take Home Points • Climate Risk is a Development issue. • Climate Change- Strong evidences and New challenges. • Climate Risk Management framework- Could be one of the practical Adaptation tools to deal with Uncertainties. • Adaptation projects and programes could be evolved and implemented by adopting Climate Risk Management frameworks. .

47. Exercise

48. What is climate risk? Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk = Management

49. What is climate risk? Climate hazardx Vulnerability Climate Risk = Management

50. What is climate risk? Climate hazard x Vulnerability Climate Risk = Management