BRAZIL Security

1. BRAZIL Security • Security Situation • The security situation in Brazil is relatively stable, with little improvement or deterioration. • The Brazilian government is continuing its Favela Clearing Operations as the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games move closer. • Pacification Police Units (PPU) will reportedly raid the RocinhaFavela, the largest slum in all of Latin America, on Nov. 13. Ahead of the operation, authorities have announced the arrest of Antonio Bonfim Lopez, leader of the Friends of Friends (ADA) drug gang and a most-wanted trafficker. • Typically, police leave open a “back door” that allows some traffickers to escape and avoid serious bloodshed. However, it’s also necessary to nab some leaders to claim effectiveness. Police commandos raise the Brazilian flag after occupying a favela in Rio de Janeiro on Feb. 6

2. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: Trends • Trends in the Middle East and North Africa • Update on the “Arab Spring” – Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco • Hezbollah Status Update • Hamas Status Update • Israel – Iran Dynamics Women protesting in Egypt, February 2011

3. MENA: Unrest Continues

4. MENA: Tunisia • Tunisia held elections on October 23 to elect representatives to draft a new constitution and form a new government. The moderate IslamistEnnahda Party, previously banned under Ben Ali, won more than 40% of the vote, forcing the group to co-opt alliances with other parties. • Ennahda party leaders have publicly stated that the constitution will be a secular document and will not mention religion and will promote human rights and a free-market economy. The new constitution is expected to be in place in 2012. • While Ennadha holds the majority, its coalition could collapse, leading to renewed instability. • No current indication that government attitudes toward Western business will change. RachedGhannoushi, leader of the Ennhada Party, previously imprisoned and exiled under Ben Ali

5. MENA: Flashpoints in Tunisia • Flashpoint – Members of the former Ben Ali government and military regime are still part of the government and may attempt to usurp power as the government changes. • Flashpoint – Popular protest was first shown to work in Tunisia and various political and social leaders have continued to call followers into the streets to protest changes, or lack of changes. Sporadic protests, sometimes turning violent, can be expected in the coming year as political wrangling continues.

6. MENA: “Revolution” in Egypt • Slow realization in Egypt that a “popularly-inspired military coup” occurred in January, not a revolution. However, there is a recognition that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is the only legitimate authority within the country ahead of elections. The 20-member council is made of military commanders who served under Mubarak. • Three-stage elections for the lower legislative house should begin on November 21, with upper house elections to follow in February and March. • Protests have continued, including violent resistance by Coptic Christians in early October. Coptic protests are particularly dangerous as they allow the SCAF to prove its will to crack down violently, without attacking Muslims. • No current indication that government attitudes toward Western business will change. Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, Chairman of SCAF

7. MENA: Flashpoints in Egypt • Flashpoint – While the people are realizing they are being ruled by a military government, they expect that situation to change. Stalling the political process or significant interference in the formation of a non-military government is likely to cause renewed protest. • Flashpoint – Mubarak’s Trial. There are rumors that the military leadership may attempt to halt Mubarak’s prosecution, allegedly for health reasons. This will cause significant protest. • Flashpoint – Political Accommodation among the political parties. There are significant differences among political parties in Egypt, especially as it relates to the role of Islam in government and society. These differences will manifest themselves in continued demonstrations as a new constitution and government are created.

8. MENA:Morocco • Unlike other Middle Eastern States, King Mohammed was able to put an end to most protest activities by initiating a series of reforms that were more ambitious than most early protesters had requested. The changes were approved in a July 1 referendum. • Protest activities, led by the February 20 Movement, are continuing though they do not appear to be growing in numbers. Most protests have been non-violent in nature, with the exception of protests in mid-October in Rabat. • The February 20 Movement is strongly divided and has not been able to agree on a policy platform that would counter King Mohammed’s proposed reforms. Their lack of an alternative proposal has caused the group to lose popular support. Moroccan King Mohammed V

9. MENA: Flashpoints in Morocco • Flashpoint – Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on November 25. Any allegations of electoral fraud are likely to be met with strong resistance by the February 20 movement. However, it’s unclear if the movement would actually gain support if fraud was proven. • Flashpoint – While unlikely, it’s possible that some more radical elements of the February 20 movement will seek to escalate its tactics in order to remain relevant and draw attention to their cause. We don’t see any indications this will happen in the near term.

10. MENA: Regional Issues • Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb – While they have not demonstrated this capability, AQIM has recently made public claims that they have procured MANPADS from Libya. US AFRICOM has confirmed these reports. Such weapons could pose a threat to aircraft and other large-scale targets in countries throughout the region. • Fighting in Libya – The Libyan situation is unlikely to be fully resolved for several months, making it likely that weapons flows out of the country will continue to supply rebel groups or other militants. • Continued Regional Unrest - Unrest in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen continues. While these situations are largely contained at the moment, they could again spiral into larger problems for the surrounding countries.

11. MENA:Hezbollah Status Update • Continued unrest in Syria has put Hezbollah in a pinch, as it realizes it needs the al Assad regime to survive in order to maintain its current status in Lebanon. The fall of al Assad would likely usher in a majority Sunni government in Syria that would be hostile to Hezbollah interests in Lebanon, shifting the balance of power. • All factions in Lebanon are massing their forces to prepare for their own worse case scenarios. It’s also possible that Syrian proxies may instigate conflict. Lebanese forces may choose to engage Hezbollah while its sponsors are engaged in more important affairs. • Conflict in Lebanon can happen very quickly but all sides have shown restraint to this point. Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah with Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Iranian President MahmoudAhmadinejad

12. MENA:Israel – Palestinian Relations • Rocket attacks launched from Gaza have become a daily occurrence since late October. Additional broad-based Israeli incursions into Gaza—similar to Operation Cast Lead--are still an option. • Hamas is seeking international recognition, rather than further isolation. However, it cannot fully shut down the rocket attacks without losing popular support inside Gaza, especially as Israel continues to attack.

13. MENA: Israel – Iran Dynamics • All sides are ramping up diplomatic rhetoric against Iran in preparation for additional sanctions regarding its nuclear program. • Iran is unlikely to strike Israel due to the collateral damage such a strike would cause. Instead, Iran’s nuclear program is meant to be a deterrent force. • Low possibility of Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities due to lack of intelligence about targets and scope of the Iranian nuclear program, combined with the likely Iranian response, including mining the Strait of Hormuz, causing serious energy and economic disruptions. • Watch Item – Israeli Activation of Military Reservists Iranian President MahmoudAhmadinejad touring Iranian nuclear centrifuges

14. For more information, please contact: Fred Burton Fred.Burton@stratfor.com (512) 744-4300