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Modeling Future Competition of Whitebark Pine with Douglas Fir and Lodgepole Pine

This study focuses on developing spatially explicit species distribution models for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), particularly for Whitebark Pine, Douglas Fir, and Lodgepole Pine. The objectives include incorporating competition into future models and comparing results from various simulation modeling techniques such as BRT, MARS, and RF. The analysis examines current competition dynamics across 454 FIA sites, providing insights into the ecological interactions among these species under future climate scenarios (RCP 8.5) and their implications for habitat suitability.

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Modeling Future Competition of Whitebark Pine with Douglas Fir and Lodgepole Pine

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  1. Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species Nathan Piekielek Whitebark pine project planning session

  2. Objective • Create future spatially-explicit species distribution models for GYE: • Douglas fir • Lodgepole pine • Others? • Incorporate competition into future models • Compare to simulation modeling results

  3. Douglas Fir Results 778 Presence Models: BRT, MARS, RF Predictors: tmin4, pptannave, permave AUC: 0.83 – 0.87 Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83 % Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3% Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%

  4. Lodgepole Pine Results 1071 Presence Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF Predictors: gdd5, deft10, pptannave, sandfract, siltfract permave, phave AUC: 0.75 – 0.89 Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83 % Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6% Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%

  5. Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir 0.82 RCP 8.5 2070 - 2100 Probability of Presence PRESENT Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5) 0.16

  6. Examining present day competition N=454 FIA sites 23 sites WBP only

  7. Examining present day competition with Douglas fir N=60 FIA sites

  8. Examining present day competition with Lodgepole pine N=189 FIA sites

  9. Examining present day competition with Engelmann spruce N=289 FIA sites

  10. Examining present day competition with Subalpine fir N=331 FIA sites

  11. One way future competition options • Binary: • WBP in presence of some other species always loses (i.e. model future WBP absence) • Continuous: • Use probability of presence of competitors to “adjust down” probability of presence of WBP • Other?

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