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Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, Leicester, 13-15 September 2004

Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, Leicester, 13-15 September 2004. Population change 1971-2001 for the City Regions and Localities of Great Britain Tony Champion and Mike Coombes Centre for Urban & Regional Development Studies

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Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, Leicester, 13-15 September 2004

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  1. Paper presented at the BSPS Annual Conference, Leicester, 13-15 September 2004 Population change 1971-2001 for the City Regions and Localities of Great Britain Tony Champion and Mike Coombes Centre for Urban & Regional Development Studies University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU Tel: +44 (0) 191 222 6437, Email: tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk

  2. Population change 1971-2001 for the City Regions and Localities of Great Britain • Introduction: aims, outline, acknowledgments to Simon Raybould & Colin Wymer • The City Regions & Localities framework • Population change 1971-2001 for City Regions: growth, decline, recovery, backsliding? • City Region cores as leaders or laggards in City Region growth? • Between-Locality variations in change rates: testing roles of North/South & Urban/Rural • Summary and next steps in research

  3. The City Regions & Localities framework • Derived from research for ESRC by CURDS: see Coombes (2000) • Defined on the basis of information on functional linkages and areal associations • 307 Localities which typically comprise at least one urban centre and adjacent linked areas • 43 City Regions centred on Localities with ‘regional city’ characteristics and containing others linked by commuting and migration • Embraces polycentric urban forms

  4. Rationale behind this framework • Administrative areas are the ‘off the shelf’ option butthey thwart meaningful city/town comparisons: ! Manchester is under- and Leeds over-bounded ! ? which part of London is comparable to Bristol ? ? what can be used as a set of City Regions ? • Research shows coherent patterns emerge in analyses if meaningful functionally-defined areas are used * areas reflect how modern urban systems work * each area can be seen as a local housing market * the local ‘churn’ of house moves is internalised * hierarchy of Localities fitting into City Regions

  5. Defining functional areas in practice • Need to analyse data on patterns of flows / linkages: commuting migration goods information etc • Definitions of ‘multi-function’ areas should ideally reflect the patterns in several varied flow datasets • The ‘traditional’ model was of one ‘core’ with its catchment area but polynuclear areas are now more common, so analyses must look at flows to / from everywhere • The 307 Localities are defined using a Synthetic Data method drawing on very many different strands of evidence on area linkages • Example: in and around W Yorks ‘urban area’

  6. West Yorkshire: complex case study

  7. Localities: clustered linkages = ‘towns’?

  8. City Regions: groups of Localities

  9. City Regions in northern England

  10. City Regions in southeastern England

  11. 38 City Regions of England and Wales

  12. Population change 1971-2001 for City Regions • Data from Census, using (mainly) EDs/OAs to produce best-fit to the 1991 wards from which Localities and City Regions are built • Population defined on the basis used at each Census, i.e. population present 1971, residents (present/absent basis) 1981, residents 1991, residents (students at term-time address) 2001 • Population change rate adjusted to % point above/below GB rate (to measure change in relative performance between decades and partially allow for differences in bases)

  13. How similar are City Region 1991-2001 change rates from Census and MYE (latter for best-fit from LAs)?

  14. How similar are City Region 1981-1991 change rates from Census and MYE (latter for best-fit from LAs)?

  15. Population change for City Regions, 1971-2001, standardised to GB rate = 0.0%: top and bottom five

  16. 43 City Regions: 1981-1991 and 1991-2001 standardised change rates compared

  17. % point shift in population change for City Regions, 1970s-to-1980s and 1980s-to-1990s, standardised to GB rate = 0.0%: top and bottom five

  18. Classification of 43 City Regions by level of change rate for 1970s, 1980s and 1990s • Steady growth (rate above GB in all decades); Brighton, Bristol, Cambridge, Derby, Exeter, Gloucester, Ipswich, Leicester, Lincoln, Northampton, Norwich, Oxford, Peterborough, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Reading, Shrewsbury, Southampton, Worcester, York (20) • Steady decline (rate below GB in all decades): Birmingham, Bradford, Cardiff, Coventry, Dundee, Glasgow, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield (11) • Recovering (rate shifts from below to above GB): Edinburgh, London (2) • Backsliding (rate shifts from above to below GB): Aberdeen, Carlisle, Chester, Hull, Inverness, Middles-borough, Nottingham, Preston, Stoke, Swansea (10) • NB. No moves across GB=0.0 line and back again

  19. Classification of 43 City Regions by trajectory of standardised change rate 70s-to-80s, 80s-to-90s • Upward shift between both pairs of decades (//): Edinburgh, London (2) • Upward shift into 1990s after downward in 1980s, i.e. troughing in 1980s (\/): Bradford, Coventry, Derby, Glasgow, Leeds, Leicester, Lincoln, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield (10) • Downward shift in 1990s after upward in 1980s, i.e. peaking in 1980s (/\): Brighton, Dundee, Exeter, Oxford, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Southampton, Worcester, York (9) • Downward shift between both pairs of decades (\\): All others (22)

  20. City Region ‘cores’ as leaders or laggards in City Region growth? • Concerning the current debates about investing in ‘core cities’ so as to revive the regions • [Alternative academic debate: are City Regions (de)concentrating in absolute or relative terms?] • To what extent are City Region cores growing more strongly than (the rest of) their Regions? • How has the performance of the cores relative to their City Regions altered since the 70s? • Definitions: ‘core’ = Regional City of each City Region; performance = population change (from Census, with checks against Mid Year Estimates, MYEs)

  21. Population change differential between Regional City and its City Region, 1971-81, 1981-91 and 1991-2001

  22. City Regions classified by whether Regional City was lagging or leading

  23. City Region ‘cores’ as leaders or laggards in City Region growth? Main results: • For 43 City Regions, Regional Cities were predominantly laggards in 1970s and 1980s, but half were leaders by 1990s • Among CRs with over 1m residents in 2001, the majority (12 out of 16) had leading RCs in 1990s • Among smaller CRs, the majority (10 out of 27) had lagging RCs in 1990s • Among GB’s 10 major cities, all had lagging RCs in 1970s and 1980s, but in 1990s 6 had leading RCs (Leeds, Liverpool, London, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield) BUT (allowing for 1991 undercount and ‘student’ effect) • Using MYEs for LA-best-fits, only London CR had a leading CR in 1990s

  24. Between-Locality variations in change rates: testing the roles of North/South & Urban/Rural • Traditionally, the principal dimensions are North v South, Urban v Rural – how has the strength of these altered since 1970s? • North/South split based on line roughly from Severn to Humber: South includes CRs of Coventry, Leicester, Nottingham and Lincoln • Urban/Rural based on Coombes & Raybould’s Urbanization Index 1991 • Coverage is 262 Localities of England and Wales • Graphs, then regression results for N/S & U/R • Analysis by previous-decade rates and N/S

  25. % population change for 262 Localities of England and Wales, by log Urbanization Index 1991 and North (red) / South (green) 1981-1991 1991-2001

  26. 262 Localities of England & Wales: regression results for N/S & U/R

  27. 262 Localities of England & Wales: regression results for N/S & momentum of previous-decade population change rate

  28. Summary of findings • Applied a new portrayal of GB’s urban system that chimes with current policy initiatives on regional development and housing market areas, as well as academic research • Confirms persistent underperformance of City Regions headed by large provincial cities, while strongest are CRs in much-greater-SE and Midlands • Across 3 decades London and Edinburgh are in a class of their own: decline->growth, accelerating • Regional Cities shifting to lead their CRs in 90s, according to Census data, but not such an encouraging picture for 10 major cities from MYEs • At Locality level, clear N/S and U/R dimensions to growth in all 3 decades, with N/S increasing in importance but U/R peaking in 80s – and less inertia in patterns 80s-to-90s

  29. Next steps in research • Further tests on robustness of change rates, using latest (09.09.04) MYEs … but challenges of adjusting for Census undercounts in both 1991 and 2001 as well as student definition change, and of allowing for LA v ED/OA effect • Further work on trends across 3 decades in RC/CR lead/lag relationships and discriminating factors in relative performance of RCs • Annual trends, using MYEs (after 07.10.04) • Analysis of the ‘unexplained’ variance in growth-rate variance at Locality level • Examination of alternative performance measures such as job growth and GVA • Comparison of insights with those from other geographies, e.g. ‘urban areas’ from SOCR 2005

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