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Time Meeting Safety Topic A Little Diversion

Time Meeting Safety Topic A Little Diversion. Ray Karol 2/26/2013. Let’s Make a Deal. Monte Hall Problem. Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given a choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats.

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Time Meeting Safety Topic A Little Diversion

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  1. Time Meeting Safety TopicA Little Diversion Ray Karol 2/26/2013

  2. Let’s Make a Deal

  3. Monte Hall Problem • Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given a choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. • You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3, which has a goat. • He says to you, ‘Do you want to switch doors?’ • Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

  4. What is the probability of winning the car if you stay with your first choice? • What if you decide to switch?

  5. Methods to Solve • Common sense • Monte Carlo • Bayes Theorem • Conditional Probability • etc. • There is only one correct answer and it is counterintuitive

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