How do you build a Results Framework?

1. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS How do you build a Results Framework? 1

2. DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS: OBJECTIVES Understand causal logic (cause and effect) Create good results statements Apply the Results Framework rules to create/refine a results Framework L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 2

3. Problem Analysis Let’s review some of the work from Session 1. What is the problem reflected by the highest level result? Why are you doing the activities at the bottom? What connects the two? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 3

4. Cause and effect relationship Example: Infant mortality L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 4 4

5. Defining specific activities to fix the causes of the problem L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program • Which causes are more responsible for a larger part of the problem (whose reduction or elimination will contribute more to reducing the overall problem) ? • Which causes do we have capacities to address? 5 5

6. Cause and effect relationship Example: Infant mortality L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 6 6

7. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Understanding the “Peru Water Project” Problem/Case • Climate change has affected the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira, Peru. • Without conservation measures and improved water resources management, water will become scarce in the long-term. • Populations affected are essentially divided into two groups: • the highland people • the lowland people. 7 7

8. Understanding the “Peru Water Project” Problem/Case (continued) Land clearing for agriculture and investments in water management infrastructure is controlled by the Municipality and guided by the interest of the local community. Conflicts exist between the two groups as decisions made do not necessarily include the interests of the other group. The project intends to address the problem by creating opportunities for joint highland/lowland decision-making processes based on scientific information. The objective is reached by these Activities: Promotion of Stakeholder Conferences Facilitation of Action Groups. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 8 8

9. What is Causal Logic? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program CausalLogic is a way to demonstrate your theory of how the Activities delivered by your project lead to the Objective (“change in the condition of the customer”). 9 9

10. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Intro to Table Exercise 1: Developing a Causal Logic Chain Objective Specific Objective Activities Specific Objective Activities Activities Activities Activities 10 10

11. Table Exercise I L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Each table receives an envelope with cards. Task: Organize the cards in a causal logic chain that flows from the bottom up with the “Activity” (at the bottom) and the “Project Objective” at the top; post in order on desk. Working time: 5 min. 11 11

12. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Project Objective: Strengthening basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two Watersheds To increase investment in improved water resources management To avoid conflicts over water To generate the political will to change water management decision making To promote politically balanced decisions To establish effective decision-making processes To assure good representation at the conference Activity 2: Promote stakeholder conferences Activity 1: Facilitate action groups 12 12

13. Intro to Task II: Building a Causal Logic Chain L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Objective Why? = Specific Objective Why? = Specific Objective Why? = Specific Objective Why? = Specific Objective Why? = Specific Objective Why? = Specific Objective Activities Activities Activities Activities 13 13

14. Use your work from Task I that shows your Results Framework and major Activities listed across the bottom. Review the causal logic for each activity by asking the question “WHY” from the bottom up. Add or subtract A4 papers to complete the causal logic Stop when the answer to the question “WHY” is the highest level Result Working time: 25 min. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Task II a: Review the Causal Logic Chain of Results Framework (RF) 14 14

15. Use your flip chart from Task I that shows your Project Objective at the top and Activities listed across the bottom. Build the causal logic for each activity by asking the question “WHY” from the bottom up. Write the answer to each question on a card and tape it in place Stop when the answer to the question “WHY” is the Project Objective. Working time: 20 min. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Task II b: Build a Causal Logic Chain 15 15

16. What is a Result? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Objective Result Intermediate Result 1 Specific Objective Intermediate Result 2 Specific Objective Activities Activities Activities Activities 16 16

17. What Is a Result? A Result = Amount of change achieved or a problem solved Def. p 69, Result Def. p 60, Customer L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Results are expressed in terms of a desired future condition, often ending or beginning with the words ‘increased’ or ‘decreased’. 17 17

18. Types of Results: USAID Definitions Development Objective (Def. p 59, Assistance Objective – same) The most ambitious result that a USAID Operating Unit, along with its partners, can materially affect, and for which it is willing to be held accountable. Intermediate Result (IR) An important result that is seen as an essential step to achieving an Assistance Objective. IRs are measurable results that may capture a number of discrete and more specific results. IRs may also help to achieve other IRs. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 18 18

19. CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD RESULT STATEMENTS Clearly expresses intended Result Measurable Uni-dimensional Realistic L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 19

20. Some rules to keep in mind when developing results statements L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program • Avoid overly broad statements. Which specific aspects of the result will project activities emphasize? • State results as future completed actions. The statement should describe the end state that is desired as the outcome of the activity. • Use strong action verbs. This makes results easier to understand: for example, constructed, eradicated, or reduced. Weak action verbs include: enhanced, liaised, supported, or coordinated. 20 20

21. Some rules to keep in mind when developing results statements (continued) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program • Be clear about what type of change is implied. Whatis expected to change—a situation, a condition, the level of knowledge, an attitude, or a behavior? • Identify precisely who or what should change. Who: Is change expected to occur among individuals, families, groups, communities, regions? What: Income, water quality, laws, regulations, level of conflict? 21 21

22. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chiraimproved Objective:Strengtheningbasic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two watersheds. Results Statement: Basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in twowatersheds strengthened. 22 22

23. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved OBJECTIVES RESULTS STATEMENTS - To avoid conflicts over water Conflicts over water avoided To promote politically balanced decisions Politically balanced decisions made To have effective decision-making processes Decision-making process functions effectively Political will to change water management decision-making generated To facilitate action groups 23 23

24. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved OBJECTIVES RESULTS STATEMENTS I To increase investment in improved water management Investment in improved water resources management increased To generate the political will to change water management decision-making Political will to change water management decision making generated To promote stakeholder participation in conferences Representation of all key stakeholders at conferences secured 24 24

25. Task III : Review/revise Results Statements in a Results Framework Check all Results Statements against good characteristics (slide 19) and revise if needed. Replace any changed with the new Result Statement cards. 15 min. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 25 25

26. What is a Results Framework? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Result Intermediate Result 1 Intermediate Result 2 IF . . . . . . . THEN Activities Activities Activities Activities 26 26

27. What Should a Results Framework do? (ADS 201.3.7.3) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program • Capture the key elements of the development hypothesis for achieving an Assistance Objective (AO) (program intent and content) • Clearly state results at AO and Intermediate Result (IR) levels • Provide sufficient detail and causal linkages to diagram the development hypothesis • Use results statements that are measurable and feasible during the planned life of the AO given anticipated resource levels • Incorporate critical assumptions 27 27

28. Results Framework L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Result Context? Assumptions?Risks? Intermediate Result 1 Intermediate Result 2 IF . . . . . . . THEN How?Why? Activities Activities Activities Activities What Else? What Else? 28 28

29. FINAL STEPS1. Articulate causality (cause and effect)2. Apply the “Necessary and Sufficient Rule” 3. Define critical assumptions L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 29 29

30. L-MEP Outcomes Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Outputs An example of causality • Project Result/Impact • Health conditions improved • Livelihoods improved Project Result • Jobs created • Incomes increased IRs • People trained • Studies completed Inputs/Activities • Experts, equipment, funds 30 30

31. USAID View of Cause and Effect: (Dev. Hypothesis) Ultimate customer or customer’s environment impact 1-20 years Do not always succeed but produce learning from experience Produce data on the road of causality traveled to benefiting customers: new knowledge & impact L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 31 31

32. Results Framework The Necessary and Sufficient Rule L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Result Intermediate Result 2 Intermediate Result 1 IF . . . . . . . THEN Activities Activities Activities Activities 32 32

33. What is a Critical Assumption? A general condition under which the development hypothesis, or strategy for achieving the objective, will hold true. Critical assumptions … Are outside the control or influence of USAID and its partners. May exist from one level of the causal chain of a results framework to the next. May apply to the entire strategy. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 33 33

34. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved Water resources management improved Investment in improved water resources management increased Politically balanced decisions made Conflicts over water avoided Effective decision making processes function Political will to change water management decision making generated Stakeholder capacity increased Good representation at the conference secured Promotion of Stakeholder conference Facilitation of action groups 34 34

35. STATE/USAID INTEGRATED RF(ADS 203.3.8.3 p 36) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 35

36. Task IV a: Reviewing a Results Framework Task: Apply the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at each level or your Results Framework Rearrange Results, add or subtract Results, until satisfied that the logic meets the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at all levels. Place causal arrows. Add any critical assumptions. 45 min. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 36 36

37. Task IV b: Creating a Results Framework Task: Turn your Project Results Statements into a Results Framework by rearranging your Causal Logic Chain. Apply the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at each level. Rearrange Results, add or subtract Results, until satisfied that the logic meets the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at all levels. Place causal arrows. Add any critical assumptions. (30 min.) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 37 37

38. Session 2. Summary Causal Logic Result Statement Criteria Necessary and Sufficient Rule Critical Assumptions State/USAID integrated Results Framework The Lord God (Reality) is very complicated, but not downright mean – A. Einstein L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 38