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FDIN Free-From : Global Innovation and Market Development

FDIN Free-From : Global Innovation and Market Development. Chris Brockman, Senior Global Food & Drink Analyst, September 2013. AGENDA. Free-from global innovation and market development: Global innovation trends: what’s new in the sector

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FDIN Free-From : Global Innovation and Market Development

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  1. FDINFree-From: Global Innovation andMarket Development Chris Brockman, Senior Global Food & Drink Analyst, September 2013

  2. AGENDA Free-from global innovation and market development: • Global innovation trends: what’s new in the sector • Which companies are leading category development now? • UK vs US free-from market size and development • Where next after hitting the mainstream – will free-from save the planet?

  3. NPD IN GLUTEN/LACTOSE FREE CONTINUES TO BUILD New product introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, 2009-2013 Source: Mintel GNPD

  4. UK IS ONE OF THE LEADERS IN FREE-FROM NPD 2013 year to August Source: Mintel GNPD

  5. RETAILER VERSUS BRAND LAUNCHES Private Label share of new introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, 2009-2013 2013 year to August Source: Mintel GNPD

  6. SOME RETAILERS FOCUS ON BUILDING SPECIFIC GF RANGES ICA Glutenfri (Sweden) Coles Simply Gluten Free (Australia) Aldi Has No... Gluten Free (Australia, US) Launching in UK • 34% of UK free-from consumers would like to see more supermarket own label varieties of ‘free-from’ food (July 2013) • 30% trust supermarket own-label ‘free-from’ food as much as branded varieties (July 2013)

  7. OTHERS ON ALL ENCOMPASSING FREE FROM RANGES Rewe Frei Von (Germany) Tesco Free From (UK) Spar Free From (Austria/Czech Rep/Hungary)

  8. LF TENDS TO BE ONE-OFF PRODUCTS OR UNDER SUB-BRANDS Netto Viva Vital Ohne L (without lactose) (Germany) Sainsbury’s Love Soya (UK) Coop Laktos Fri (Sweden)

  9. LAUNCHES BY COMPANY New product introductions of gluten-free & low/no/reduced lactose food & drink, globally, by company, 2009-2013 (% of launches) Source: Mintel GNPD

  10. GENERAL MILLS HIGHLY ENGAGED WITH GLUTEN FREE • Sees gluten-free as an incremental sales opportunity • c300 gluten-free products in range including gluten-free Chex rice cereal, gluten-free Betty Crocker cake mixes and new Pilsbury gluten-free dough • Dedicated ‘Gluten Freely’ consumer site merged into ‘Live Better America’ site in 2013 reflecting wider healthy eating/lifestyle positioning • Could be construed as using gluten free as a way to build health into highly processed foods General Mills gluten-free range

  11. SOME ACTIVITY FROM OTHER MAJOR BRANDS – GLUTEN FREE Heinz Deliciously Gluten Free Penne Pasta (UK) Barilla Gluten Free Pasta US nationwide roll-out in 2014 Kellogg's Gluten Free Rice Krispies (US) Warburtons Newburn Bakehouse Gluten Free & Wheat Free (UK) Bimbo Gluten-Free Sliced Bread (Portugal) Nabisco Gluten Free Rice Thins (US)

  12. SOME ACTIVITY FROM OTHER MAJOR BRANDS – LACTOSE FREE Campina Lactose Free Milk (NL) Ritter Sport Whole Milk Lactose Free Chocolate (Germany) Danone Activia Lactose Free Natural Yogurt (Germany) Bofrost Free Gluten and Lactose Free Pizza (Germany) Emmi Good Day Cereal Yogurt (Switz) Fruit D'Or Lactose-Free Margarine (France)

  13. COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES IN THE US Kellogg’s Start Simple Rice Krispies Chex Seven gluten free flavors

  14. GLUTEN FREE SPECIALISTS INTERNATIONALISE • No.1 in Germany/ Europe • New factory in US opened in 2012 • Products launched in around 20 countries in last 2 years • No.1 in UK (2013 buys Finsbury’s GF business & expects t/o of £50m) • Products launched in 7 countries in last 2 years 2011: US/Can (Glutino) 2012: Carrefour Spain 2013: Coles Australia • No.1 in GF bakery in US & Canada (Udi’s & Glutino – Udi’s sales over £60m in 2012) • Now developing UK/Europe business (2013 bought Davies Bakery)

  15. GF VARIANTS TAKE AN INCREASING SHARE IN NPD OF CEREAL-BASED PRODUCTS Gluten-free penetration in launches of cereal-based products, globally, 2009-2013 Certainly more potential in pizza/prepared meals, & beer 2013 year to August Source: Mintel GNPD

  16. THE OPPORTUNITY IN ALCOHOLIC DRINKS - BEER Gluten free beers are growing in number • Among UK beer drinkers, 34% agree that they would drink gluten-free beers if they tasted as good as standard varieties while another 43% neither agree nor disagree (e.g. only just over 20% disagree) • Brands such as Green’s are not just targeting coeliacs – as the brewer does not use gelatine-based products or Isinglass in the production process, the products are also suitable for vegetarians and vegans St Peter’s Gluten-Free Beer, Finland Green’s Gluten-Free Beer, USA Source: Mintel GNPD

  17. …AND EVEN SPIRITS Blue Ice American Potato Vodka (21st Century Spirits) the first to feature a ‘Gluten Free’ designation on-pack, US, May 2013 • May 2012: US Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) permitted spirit producers to display gluten-free claims on products made from gluten-free ingredients, including potatoes • Some disagreement over whether distillation removes all trace of gluten – Coeliac UK’s stance is that it does, thus it recommends all spirits (including barley containing malt whisky) as good for people with coeliac disease

  18. OTHER RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Bfree, Ireland Amy’s Kitchen, UK Freedom Foods Quinoa Milk, Australia 2011 start-up, sales in Ireland €1m Now coming to the UK Growth in both the US and UK Ancient grains extends non-dairy milk options (quinoa and chia in this case)

  19. UK FREE-FROM MARKET GROWTH WILL SLOW BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE UK retail sales of free-from foods, 2008-17 Source: Mintel Oxygen

  20. CONSUMER: GROWING PURCHASE LEVELS Types of free-from foods bought (last six months), UK, 2012 vs. 2013 (July) Source: GMI/Mintel

  21. LIFESTYLE CHOICES AS IMPORTANT AS ALLERGY/ INTOLERANCE IN AVOIDANCE OF LACTOSE AND GLUTEN Foods/ingredients avoided, UK, July 2013 Source: GMI/Mintel

  22. UK vs. US – US GROWTH HIGHER BUT MARKET DEFINITIONS AFFECT ACTUAL SIZING UK gluten free sales (not including mainstream products labelled gluten-free but which did not contain gluten in the first instance) US gluten free sales (all products labelled gluten-free) Source: Mintel Oxygen

  23. ‘HEALTH’ PERCEPTION DRIVES THE US MARKET Reasons for eating gluten-free other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013 Source: Mintel Oxygen • 15% of US consumers currently eating GF food (June 2013) • 25% among 18-24 year olds • 72% have not been diagnosed with celiac disease • 53% eating GF food because its healthier Rising incidence of intolerance and health perceptions fuel growth 23

  24. US MARKET GROWTH FUELLED BY SNACKS • Sales of gluten-free products by segment, US, 2011-2013 • All segments in the category experienced sales growth between 2011 and 2013 • Most dramatic growth was in the bread products, cookies, and snacks segment (+77%) • Salty snacks alone +136% 52 weeks ending June 11, 2011; June 9, 2012; June 8, 2013 Source: Mintel/SPINS/Nielsen

  25. GLUTEN FREE AT FOODSERVICE Issue is trust: Just 34% of US consumers trust that gluten-free restaurant offerings are not cross-contaminated with gluten (June 2013) Source: Mintel Oxygen US: TOP 5 RESTAURANT MENU CLAIMS 2010-13 25

  26. WHAT WILL DRIVE FUTURE GROWTH Numerous factors suggest further growth Healthy lifestyle positioning • Will continue to widen user base by leveraging healthy eating consciousness and trends Rising levels of incidence / diagnosis • Expanding core user base Deeper penetration • e.g. into other sectors / channels such as foodservice Wider range • Bigger offer means lower price differential and opportunity for better quality • Technology offers scope for brands to better connect with engaged consumers • Social media & mobile phone apps give consumers the power to seek out free from solutions GlutenSwitch mobile phone app (Australia)

  27. ENVIRONMENTAL POSITIONING TO COME INTO GREATER PLAY For non-dairy alternatives there is a case Meat & dairy production is unsustainable to feed a growing world population reaching 9bn by 2050. The world grain output will need to rise by 50%, and meat production will need to double to meet the demand (UN) “The problem is that instead of feeding crops to people, we’re feeding most of them to livestock. And so we’re caught in an inefficient protein-delivery system.” (Bill Gates)

  28. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF DAIRY A producer of coconut milk – so could be biased! Claims to be “planet and people friendly” as it uses less water and less CO2 than protein based products “Fantastic for the environment”, as it grows very fast; captures a lot of CO2; does not need pesticides; soil friendly etc.

  29. GLUTEN FREE ALSO GETS ON BOARD THE TREND Gluten free products also lead in the use of environmentally friendly product claims Redwood Smoky BBQ Multigrain Chips, US The manufacturer claims to grow the rice sustainably, by conserving water resources, building soil integrity, and supporting a healthier ecosystem. Annie's HomegrownCookies, US Pack bears the EcoBonus Collect & Earn point coupon for eco-conscious choices of earth-friendly products, which can be donated to a local non-profit organization or school.

  30. BUT CONSUMERS ARE NOT THAT ENGAGED – YET! • Only 13% British consumers who have bought vegetarian/meat-free foods have done so to reduce the amount of meat/ poultry/fish consumed because of concerns over the environment Alpro Tofu (Belgium) Meat brand Charal tackles environmental issue head on

  31. CHRIS BROCKMAN Senior Global Food & Drink Analyst +44 20 7606 4533 cbrockman@mintel.com

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