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FAO. CGIAR. WMO. Fundamental Questions. How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

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  1. FAO CGIAR WMO

  2. Fundamental Questions • How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? • How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? • What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

  3. Global Environmental Change Examples of human activities leading to GEC: Agricultural intensification Freshwater extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste production Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation

  4. Global Environmental Change Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influencedby human activities For example changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

  5. Food Systems • Activities • Producing food • Processing & packaging food • Distributing & retailing food • Consuming food • and • Outcomes of the activities contributing to: • Food Security • Environment • Other societal interests • both influenced by the interactions between and within biogeophysical and human environments (“drivers”)

  6. Food System Outcomes related to Food Security & Key Elements FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange

  7. GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security.

  8. Global Environmental Change and Food SystemsResearch Conditions & Scenarios Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Decision Support Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Adaptation

  9. Research Approaches • 1. Conceptual & Methodological Research • Food Systems Concepts • Vulnerability Concepts • Scenario Construction • Decision Support Systems • 2. Food Systems Research in • Indo-Gangetic Plain • Caribbean • Southern Africa

  10. Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to Developing Scenarios for analysing interactions between GEC and Food Systems Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demography Economics Socio-political context Cultural context Science & Technology Societal Interests (as relating to Food Systems) Food System OUTCOMES contributing to: Food Security Environment & Other interests Interactions among DRIVERS Naturally- induced drivers e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nutrient availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

  11. Scenario Development questions • What are the plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems? • What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses? • What what are the best approaches for linking global scenarios to regional scale so as to capture regional-level factors relevant to food systems?

  12. ICSU Grant to GECAFS Scenarios to aid regional food security policy formulation (2005) • Improve understanding of the underlying interactions between food systems and GEC • Analyse elements of global scenarios important for regional-level issues • Determine appropriate methods for linking global scenarios to regional scale • Develop conceptual frameworks for scenario construction at regional scale • Construct a set of prototype scenarios for the Caribbean region as a proof of concept

  13. Two possibilities for linking scenarios across scales (1) 1. Take full stories of global scenarios and “translate” into regional stories. 2. Develop regional scenarios based on: • rationale for choosing global scenarios • the assumptions global scenarios make and • the outcomes of global scenarios ensuring that outcomes of regional scenarios do not conflict with outcomes of global scenarios.

  14. ICSU Grant to GECAFS Scenarios to aid regional food security policy formulation Apr: Rome WS on methods for multi-scale linking in scenarios May-Aug: Review global scenario approaches for GECAFS interests Plan Caribbean Scenarios exercise Sep: Regional WS1: Outline main uncertainties of Caribbean Scenarios for GECAFS research Outline Focal Questions Develop first draft scenarios set Sep-Nov: Develop prototype Caribbean scenarios using two cross- scale methods Nov: Regional WS2: Finalise prototype scenarios Compare cross-scale methods Dec: Finalise Report and develop follow-up ICSU Caribbean research will feed into proposed SANREM work

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