720 likes | 900 Vues
National Board of Trade Lena Johansson Director General. National Board of Trade. Agency for foreign trade and trade policy Promote free trade and transparent rules Our main task is to improve opportunities for international trade. Objectives. An effective Internal Market
E N D
National Board of Trade • Agency for foreign trade and trade policy • Promote free trade and transparent rules • Our main task is to improve opportunities for international trade
Objectives • An effective Internal Market • An open trade policy in the EU • A strong multilateral international trading system
Ljuset (ekonomiska aktiviteten) är mest intensiv vid kusten och navigerbara floder
Var ”ljusnar” det och varför? - Framförallt i länder som integrerar sig i världsekonomin, t.ex. BRICs
The Swedish Government: ….. create growth and employment in Sweden by promoting free trade and dismantling of trade barriers
Developing countries • Analyses of developing countries perspective • Competence and capacity building programmes in developing countries • Open Trade Gate Sweden
International trade and development • Why do peopletrade? • Situation and developments in worldtrade • Trade and Climate Change • Development perspective • Swedish tradepatterns and developments • Tradepolicies
Free trade • Trade creates welfare • Sweden is very dependant on international trade
Swedish trade dependance Exports/GDP > 50 % Imports/GDP = almost 50 %
Exports/GDP 1960 1996 2006 Global 10 % 20 % 30 % Sweden 14 % 35 % > 50 %
Foreign investments/GDP 1995 2005 Global 10 % 24 % Sweden 30 % > 50 %
Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country FDI´s grow even faster
International trade is still regional • Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé =23 % of world trade • Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade-Europe 31 % (single market 25 %)- Asia 14 %- North America 8 %
787mdr $ (6 %) 477mdr $ (4 %) 103 mdr $ (1 %) 4243mdr $ (31%) 1108 mdr $ (8%) 951 mdr $ (7 %) 1889mdr $ (14%) 93,4 mdr $ (1%) 282 mdr $ (2%) 40,5 mdr $ (0,3 %) 122 mdr $ (1 %) 315 mdr $ (2 %) 1148 mdr $ (8%) Intra regional handel Inter-regional handel Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008
EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total handel 1962-2008 Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)
Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel 1962-2008 Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)
Källa: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, Tulli, Finland, Eurostat och SCB
The public opinion Support for international trade is strong, but the trend is negative?
The public opinion (2) Important to note that support for imports much smaller than for trade
Decreasing protectionism, 1995-2007 • 25 new WTO-members • Decrease in tarrifs and quotas • Trade facilitiation at the border • World trade encreased by 170 % • Trade in services increasing • Liberalized rules for foreign investments
Imports of goods and services increase faster then GDP in almost every country FDI´s grow even faster
Conclusion: Trade policy has, almost by any measure, been dramatically liberalised almost everywhere since 1995
Trends in worldtrade – long term • Global market place • Global Value Chains • Goods -> Services • Servicification • e-commerce Other tendencies - short term? • Crises effects, politics • New protectionism • Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally • Local production • Climate concerns? Development aspects Emerging markets
Fragmenterad produktion“The first unbundling” – Baldwin Olika arbetsinsatser genomförs på samma plats (i samma land)
Fragmenterad produktion“The second unbundling” – Baldwin “Trade in tasks” - arbetsuppgifterna sprids ut över världenFragmentering kan ske på flera olika sätt – inom eller utom företaget, i hemlandet eller i utlandetOffshoring och outsourcing leder till handel med insatser
A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish… Made in Sweden?
Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller
Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden OECD-average: 31 %
Sectors Tjänstesektorer
En Boeing Dreamliner :Made in America? 43 subcontractors Spread on 135 production facilities in the world Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S. and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden 70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S. ”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest international competetion in business, New York, USA
Ett växande avstånd mellan företagens verklighet och handelspolitiken “While the nature of global trade has changed, trade regulation in the EU and other OECD economies has remained largely the same.”
“Everybody is in Services” – The Impact of Servicification in Manufacturing on Trade and Trade Policy (under tryck)
E-commerce • New options • New barriers • Cloud computing
Trends in worldtrade – long term • Global market place • Global Value Chains • Goods -> Services • Servicification • e-commerce But also Other tendencies - short term? • Crises effects, politics • New protectionism • Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally • Local production • Climate concerns? Development aspects Emerging markets
The relationship between international trade and transport modes Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006) Källa: UNCTAD (2008)
CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector Källor: IEA (2011) och OECD (2010b)
Emission intensity for different modes CO2-utsläpp per ton-km Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)
How does trade effect CO2 emissions? • Transports • Production: location, methods • Innovations and technical developments are spread
A surgery Made in Sweden? A commute Made in Hong Kong?
Swedish trade with other EU countries Exports 61 % Imports 72 %