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Scotland's Independence: Poll Trends and Turnout Prospects

This analysis explores the recent polling data on Scotland's potential independence referendum. Conducted by Ipsos MORI and ICM Research, it reflects on voter sentiments from February to February, examining the dynamics between the Yes and No campaigns. Voter turnout is anticipated to be high, but the Yes side faces significant challenges, especially in winning over undecided voters and securing support from Labour. Additionally, issues of identity and economic arguments are critical, particularly among women and those identifying as British.

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Scotland's Independence: Poll Trends and Turnout Prospects

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  1. Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @whatscotsthink

  2. Turnout Prospects Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

  3. A Little Movement in the Polls? Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

  4. The Post Christmas Sequence

  5. The Don’t Knows

  6. Squeezing the Don’t Knows

  7. Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos MORI

  8. Possible Changers - ICM Source: ICM Research

  9. The Cross-Party Transfer

  10. The Gender Gap

  11. Partly a Question of Identity Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

  12. Scotland’s Future - Economy? Source: ICM Research

  13. Scotland Future’s - Equality Source: ICM Research

  14. Economy Matters (Much) More Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

  15. The Gender Gap on the Economy Source: ICM Research

  16. Conclusion • Be ready for a high turnout! • The referendum race has narrowed a bit • But Yes side still face a substantial challenge • Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over • Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones • Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union • Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women

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