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Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

Peak Car?. Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH. I ndustrialized countries hit a plateau. International comparison, index of absolute car km per year. Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012. Economic growth explains less.

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Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

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  1. Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

  2. Industrialized countries hit a plateau International comparison, index of absolute car km per year Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012

  3. Economicgrowthexplains less Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,Trafikanalyskörsträckor 1999-2012

  4. Money matters a lot Total Sweden, 2002 index per adult Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys inclboth private and companycars; GDP and adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se, bensin gas prices from spbi.se, all pricesare inflation adjusted

  5. Money matters a lot…given good alternatives Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys inclboth private and companycars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se

  6. Peak Car in the cities - Why? • Investments and Policy • Mode and destination alternatives! • Central housing • Parking, Congestion • Economy • Cost of driving • Income distribution, employment

  7. Peak Car in the cities - Why? • Lifestyles and Technology • Virtual trips and trip planning • Fewer but longer trips, flights • Youth delays licensing • Wealthier and healthier pensioners • Investments and Policy • Mode and destination alternatives! • Central housing • Parking, Congestion • Economy • Cost of driving • Income distribution, employment

  8. Peak Car in the cities - Why? • Demographyand Urbanization! • Growing cities (especially young, single, immigrant, habits still forming) • Later family forming and employment, more students • Self selection, e.g. new parents moving to the suburbs • Lifestyles and Technology • Virtual trips and trip planning • Fewer but longer trips, flights • Youth delays licensing • Wealthier and healthier pensioners • Investments and Policy • Mode and destination alternatives! • Central housing • Parking, Congestion • Economy • Cost of driving • Income distribution, employment

  9. Oppositetrends by lifecyclegroup Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

  10. Oppositetrends by lifecyclegroup Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

  11. More immigration – new habits Moreasylum immigration since 2006 Souce: scb.se

  12. Opposingcar access trends Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys inclboth private and companycars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se

  13. Cars get driven somewhat less(Multimodality, new habits, different owners, alternatives, economy) Source: Bilprovningen/Trafikanalys inclboth private and companycars; adult population ages 18-84 from scb.se

  14. Conclusions • Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options • Prepare for change in financing / taxes • Potential to steer is greater than assumed • Combine financial incentives with improved alternatives • Congestion charge, parking space and price • Dense, mixed use, attractive centers. Fewer distant shopping centers • Public transit, walk, cycle alternatives

  15. Peak Car? Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH anne.bastian@abe.kth.se

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