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May and June Meeting Outcomes: Implied Probabilities and Economic Insights

This report summarizes the outcomes from the May and June meetings, focusing on the implied probabilities communicated by key Federal Reserve governors and presidents. Key speeches from Governors Kohn, Olson, Bies, and Presidents Stern and Fisher are highlighted, detailing their perspectives on retail sales, consumer sentiment, and trade reports. The indicated probabilities illustrate potential interest rate shifts with figures like 4.50%, 4.75%, 5.00%, and 5.25%. These insights contribute to understanding the economic landscape and Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

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May and June Meeting Outcomes: Implied Probabilities and Economic Insights

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  1. MAY MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability Speeches by Governors Kohn and Olson, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment 5.00% Trade Report Speeches by Presidents Stern and Fisher Speeches by Governors Bies and Olson 4.75% 5.25% 4.50%

  2. JUNE MEETING OUTCOMES Implied probability Speeches by Governors Kohn and Olson, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment 5.00% Trade Report 5.25% 4.75% Speeches by Presidents Stern and Fisher Speeches by Governors Bies and Olson 4.50% 5.50%

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