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OMS Development in Support of NRCS National Water and Climate Center

OMS Development in Support of NRCS National Water and Climate Center Presented by: George Leavesley Colorado State University ghleaves@engr.colostate.edu phone 970 492 7328. Issues in Developing a Complete Modeling Forecast System. Model Data Forecasting Analysis System integration.

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OMS Development in Support of NRCS National Water and Climate Center

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  1. OMS Development in Support of NRCS National Water and Climate Center Presented by: George Leavesley Colorado State University ghleaves@engr.colostate.edu phone 970 492 7328

  2. Issues in Developing a Complete Modeling Forecast System • Model • Data • Forecasting • Analysis • System integration

  3. Ensemble Performance • Model • Model selection • Current snowmelt model in OMS: PRMS • Future NWS Snow-17, SRM, … • Ensemble approach

  4. Model • Basin characterization and parameter estimation • GIS Weasel used for basin delineation, characterization, and parameterization • Integrate DogByte • Explore and develop regional parameter estimation methods

  5. Model • Precipitation distribution • XYZ and Detrended Kriging are currently available • Inverse distance and combined XYZ + inverse distance are being added • Plan to evaluate the performance of these and other methods in different climatic and physiographic regions

  6. Model • Calibration • Luca is integrated in OMS • Tools are available to estimate independent measures for step-wise model calibration • Solar radiation • Potential evapotranspiration • Water balance • Streamflow timing • Tutorials are being developed for Solar Radiation and PET estimation tools

  7. Model • Model state updating • Exploring manual and automated options for state updating • Dependent to some degree on selected data issues

  8. Data • Time-series data • Data retrieval tools have been developed • Meteorological, SNOTEL, streamflow • Need to establish an operational database • Spatial data • Many data types available • Basin characterization, solar radiation, snow, SNODAS, … • Need automated tools developed to process these data for real-time integration

  9. Forecasting • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) has been incorporated in OMS • Viper can be integrated • A K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) climate generator has been developed for use with MMS data format and can be added to OMS • Downscaling methods for using atmospheric model output exist and can be added

  10. Analysis • Graphical tools in OMS • Statistical summary tools in OMS • Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis • PRMS Sensitivity Analysis is being added to OMS • Working with government and university community to obtain other methods for addition to OMS

  11. Real-time Climate and Streamflow Data Hydrologic Database NWCC Forecast Tools Object User Interface or DogByte Interface for data visualization and modeling Object Modeling System Modeling Framework System Integration: Database-Centered Forecast System

  12. Basins Selected for Initial Development Efforts • Big Wood at Haley, Idaho • East Fork Carson nr Gardnerville, NV • Sprague River nr Chiloquin, OR • Teton River nr Driggs • Yampa River near Maybell • Yellowstone River nr Corwin Springs

  13. Next Steps • Master Plan • Commitment • Resources • People

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