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Policy Scenarios to 2050

Policy Scenarios to 2050 11th African Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference & Exhibition, 23-25 May 2007 Elena Virkkala Nekhaev, Director of Programmes World Energy Council. NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD. World Energy Council (WEC).

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Policy Scenarios to 2050

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  1. Policy Scenarios to 2050 11th African Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference & Exhibition, 23-25 May 2007 Elena Virkkala Nekhaev, Director of Programmes World Energy Council NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

  2. World Energy Council (WEC) To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all • Established in 1923 as the World Power Conference • Member Committees in 97 countries • Multi-energy, non-governmental, non-commercial

  3. World Energy Council (WEC) To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all • Triennial World Energy Congress • Work Programme: Studies, Technical Committees, Regional Programmes, Global Energy Information System (GEIS)

  4. Global Energy Information System(GEIS)www.worldenergy.org

  5. Africa Today • Area: 15% of the world total • Population: 14% of the world total • GDP: 1.6% of the world total • Rich and diverse in natural resources • Least developed continent • Regional integration and cooperation

  6. Environment • 3.6% of global GHG emissions • Power generation, road transport, biomass • Significant differences between sub-regions • (Southern Africa> 50%)

  7. Main Challenges • Low access to modern energy • High dependence on biomass • Poor infrastructure • Inefficient technologies • High costs of energy projects • Lack of technical expertise • Bad governance • Weak co-operation and integration

  8. WEC Scenarios • 3A’s Methodology: • Accessibility (modern & affordable energy services) • Availability (security of supply) • Acceptability (sustainable production and use)

  9. WEC Scenarios • Focus on policies, government engagement, integration, cooperation • Government Engagement vs Cooperation and Integration

  10. POLICY AXES Interventionist (Heavy) Scenario II Scenario III Government Engagement Scenario I Scenario IV Enabling (Light) Integration / Co-Operation Globalism (Inclusive) Nationalism (Exclusive)

  11. Conclusions • Scenarios I and II not favourable • Scenario III constructive till 2035 • Scenario IV likely for 2035-2050 • Regional cooperation starting from sub-regional level

  12. Recommendations • Promote investment & develop local capital markets • Strengthen regional cooperation • Technology transfer & capacity building • Support for renewable energy

  13. Recommendations • Hydro & nuclear for long-term • Biofuels instead of gasoline • Energy efficiency and conservation • Deeper cooperation with international and regional institutions • Benefit from the introduction of WTO rules

  14. Energy for ProsperityEnergy for Peace • Concerted action required • “Marshall Plan” for Africa • Public/private partnership • Action today

  15. Thank you!www.worldenergy.org

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