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Political Polls in New Zealand

Political Polls in New Zealand. Dru Rose. There are 6 main poll companies: . One News Colmar Brunton Herald DigiPoll 3 News Reid Research Herald on Sunday Key Research Roy Morgan Horizon. Dru Rose. Colmar Brunton , DigiPoll , Reid, Key and Roy Morgan use CATI Computer

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Political Polls in New Zealand

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  1. Political Polls in New Zealand Dru Rose

  2. There are 6 main poll companies: • One News Colmar Brunton • Herald DigiPoll • 3 News Reid Research • Herald on Sunday Key Research • Roy Morgan • Horizon Dru Rose

  3. Colmar Brunton, DigiPoll, Reid, Key and Roy Morgan use CATI Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing Dru Rose

  4. and RDD (Random Digit Dialling) • Computer software randomly rings a household with a landline telephone. The interviewer asks to speak to the adult with the most recent birthday. • If that person is not at home, the CATI software usually programmes several re-calls over a 4-day period in an attempt to contact them. Dru Rose

  5. Some form of Stratified Sampling is usedwhich samples • Geographic regions • Rural/urban • Gender • Age • Income distribution • Ethnicity • in approximately the same proportions as in the population Dru Rose

  6. Non-Sampling errors • Selection bias (RDD-landlines only) • non-response/don’t know bias • The 5 main poll companies first exclude non-voters and then those with no firm preference (undecided) • Poll %s are for decided voters only • (These polls usually produce predictions close to actual election results for the two main parties) Dru Rose

  7. Horizon Poll • Horizon polls are on-line. • People are invited to join the HorizonPoll national online research panel based on the profile of the population at the 2006 census. • Large Sample size 1800+(to provide sufficient respondents from minor parties) • Weight by age, gender, ethnicity, region, personal income and party vote (2011). • Includes both decided voters and undecided voters leaning towards a preference • called a Net Potential Vote poll. Dru Rose

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