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GLOBES Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 2008

GLOBES Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 2008 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE WITH IMMIGRATION Barry R. Chiswick University of Illinois at Chicago and IZA – Institute for the Study of Labor 11/25/08. Immigration to the U.S. Legal Immigration per year Number of people

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GLOBES Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 2008

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  1. GLOBES Conference Tel Aviv, Israel December 2008 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC EXPERIENCE WITH IMMIGRATION Barry R. Chiswick University of Illinois at Chicago and IZA – Institute for the Study of Labor 11/25/08 Barry R. Chiswick

  2. Immigration to the U.S. Legal Immigration per year Number of people Recently: 1.0 million 1950s: 250,000 1905-1914 (peak): 1.0 million Return Migration Foreign Born Population Proportion of U.S. Population 2008: 13.0 percent 1970 (low point) : 4.7 percent Barry R. Chiswick

  3. Immigration by Type of Visa 2007 Barry R. Chiswick

  4. Origins of Legal Immigrants, 2007Total Number: 1,052,416 Barry R. Chiswick

  5. Illegal Immigration Apprehensions: • 1.0 to 1.8 million/year since 1976 • Now about 1.0 million/year • 85 to 90 percent Mexicans apprehended at the border Stock: • Estimated at 12 million Skills: • Primarily very low skilled Barry R. Chiswick

  6. U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades • Increase in high-skilled immigration • (legal – H1-B, permanent and temporary) • Sectors: High technology, science and engineering, IT, Medicine, R&D • Raised US productivity, productivity potential, and global competitiveness Barry R. Chiswick

  7. U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades • Increase in low-skilled immigration (very large) • Sectors: Service, Construction, Agriculture, Manufacturing • Increased competition with low-skilled native workers (esp. for low-skilled minorities) Barry R. Chiswick

  8. U. S. Immigration in Recent Decades • Likely Net Effects: • Increased Inequality in skills • Increased U.S. Productivity • Increased wage inequality • Increased public transfers more than taxes Barry R. Chiswick

  9. U.S. Prospects for the Future Near Term: • Reduced number of visas for skilled workers (permanent and temporary) during recession • Amnesty (“Earned Legalization”) for millions of illegal immigrants Longer Term: • Continued emphasis on Kinship visas (Ethnic Politics) • Post-recession increases in Temporary High-Skill visas • Continued growth in illegal migrant population vs. Workplace Enforcement Barry R. Chiswick

  10. Global Prospects for the Future • Continued Fall in Costs of information and transportation • Continued spread of English as the International Language of Science, Technology, Business, and Higher Education Trade (Goods and Services): • Two-way Street • Continued movement toward Free Trade (reduced tarriff and non-tarriff barriers) Barry R. Chiswick

  11. Global Prospects for the Future Migration From LDCs to DCs: • One-way Street • Continued migration pressures • Transfer Programs & Property Rights • (Taxes and Transfers) • Income Distribution • Immigration Restrictions • Enforcement Problems in Liberal Democracies Barry R. Chiswick

  12. Global Prospects for the Future Migration Among DCs: • High degree of international transferability of skills • Global businesses • Migration policies favor high-skilled workers (Permanent and Temporary) • Increasing Globalization of the High-Skilled Labor Market • Implications for: • Earnings • Migration Flows • Technological Change • Economic Progress Barry R. Chiswick

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