The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering

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The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering

The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering

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Presentation Transcript

1. Please come and make a bet on the game listed above. Whether you have any sports betting experience or not, just try to make one bet. It’s all for fun, so give it a shot!

2. The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering Ronald W. Yates Patrick L. Villa College of Southern Nevada

3. 52.380952381 % What is a Square?

4. Scoreboard Update

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7. Money Line Bets

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12. Boxing

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14. Parlay Bets

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16. Expected Values of Parlay Bets With n bets in a parlay, the probability of winning is (1/2)n, and the table is based upon a standard \$10 wager.

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19. Payouts for Money Line Parlays (Lines are something other than -110) The money line of each proposition is substituted into [(win amount/ bet amount) + 1], and the resulting terms are then multiplied together. Example: a 3-team parlay of the following propositions.

20. Scoreboard Update

21. Parlay Cards

22. The Language of Sports Betting

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24. Post Time Expected Value of a Straight Bet: (1/2)(+\$10) + (1/2)(-\$11) = - \$0.50 In order to break even, must win 11 out of every 21 bets (11/21)(+\$10) + (10/21)(-\$11) = \$ 0 Winning 11 out of every 21 bets = 52.38… % Makes winning sound easy… doesn’t it?

25. Round Robin Parlays Let's say you have 4 bets that you like, call them A, B, C, and D, and you want to bet every possible parlay with these 4 bets. Using combinations, we can find that this includes a total of 11 bets:

26. Betting Parlays Let's say you do extremely well, and pick the winner in 4 out of 7 games (which is a 57% success rate). We will call the bets A, B, C, D, 1, 2, and 3, with the letters being winners and the numbers being losers. Using a \$10 wager:

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