Giving all children a chance

1. Giving all children a chance Jaime Saavedra Poverty Reduction and Equity THE WORLD BANK George Washington University April 2011

2. Poverty has fallen in almost all countries

3. …and inequality? Change in the Gini Index (1990’s – 2000’s)

4. What inequality? Income, consumption? Opportunities, assets?

5. Inequality of what? Incomes? Outcomes? This polarizes the policy debate Inequality of opportunities….. facilitates consensus? 1 = “Incomesshouldbemade more equal" 10 = “Weneed more incomedifferences as incentive to individual effort" Source: World Values Survey; conducted by Inter-univerisity Consortium of Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, 1999-2000; cited in Inglehart et al, 2004.

6. Improvement in poverty indicators Source: DHS, India, Indonesia and Peru reduced child mortality ………

7. But inequalities within countries are large • …and not always falling Source: DHS Large differences across quintiles (convergence in India, Indonesia, Peru)

8. … inequities also across areas Source: DHS, STATcompiler

9. Another poverty indicator: malnutrition Source: DHS Reduction in % of children underweight in India, Nigeria and Peru

10. And again large, persistent and in some cases increasing gaps Source: DHS, STATcompiler But little or no convergence between the richest and poorest – in fact widening of rich-poor gap for India and Nigeria

11. Two Latin American children: Probability of completing 6th grade on time Child with 4 siblings in single-parent rural household, household head without formal education and per capita income of 1 US$ (PPP) Child with 1 sibling, in urban two-parent household, household head with secondary education and per capita income of 25 US$ (PPP)

12. TwoAfricanchildren: Probability of completing 6th grade on time

13. “ 4 out of 10 children less than 5 years do not have access to clean water” • Problem 1: access/coverage • But there there is a second problem • here • “Those 4 children are indigenous • Problem 2 : circumstances affect children's chances. distribution

14. Theequality of opportunityprincipleCircumstancesexogenoustothe individual, likebirth place, gender, ethnicity, income and education of parentsshouldnot determine thepersonswellbeing

15. Human Opportunity Index Where,  Averageaccess(C)  Inequality of OpportunityIndex(D) Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates: a) The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universal b) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle Coverage/access rate of a discounted by a penalty for inequality of opportunities

16. Circumstances • Characteristics outside the controls of individuals • Society wants these to not influence a child’s access to basic opportunities. • Gender • Parents’ education • Household’s location • Number of Siblings • Ethnicity • Altitude in Andean Region in LAC. • Child’s orphan status in many conflict-affected countries.

17. Indicators • Good or service that society agrees is critical for individual development • Essential for poverty eradication • Universality is a valid social objective. • Examples • School attendance • Completing primary on time • Access to water • Access to sanitation • Access to electricity

18. Africa and Latin America (late 2000s) Note: HOIs use the same definition of opportunities and comparable list of circumstances In terms of school attendance, African countries are comparable with many countries in LAC region – in coverage and HOI

19. Africa and Latin America (late 2000s) Finished Primary education on Time African countries compare poorly with most LAC countries on completion of primary on time - Late entry is a major problem in Africa

20. Encouraging trends for Africa on school attendance (late 1990s – late 2000s) • Large improvements in school attendance for most African countries • In almost all African countries change in HOI > change in coverage  reduction in inequality in attendance

21. But mixed picture on trends for primary school completion in Africa Finished Primary education on Time Annual Change • Little or no improvement in HOI for 7 out of 16 African countries • Increase in HOI much smaller than increase in coverage for the 9 African countries showing an improvement  rise in inequality in primary school completion

22. Africa and Latin America – Electricity Source: World Bank

23. Changes in the HOI - Electricity(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s) Source: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)

24. Africa and Latin America – Sanitation Source: World Bank. Sanitation – Flush toilet

25. Africa and Latin America – Access to clean water Source: World Bank. Access to water – piped water in the dwelling or property

26. Changes in the HOI - Sanitation(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s) Source: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)

27. Changes in the HOI - Water(late 1990’s vs. late 2000’s) Source: World Bank using DHS data; work under progress (do not cite)

28. HOI related to Access to key Household Services Source: World Bank

29. HOI related to Access to key Household Services Source: World Bank

30. HOI – Completingprimaryeducationon time Brazilianstates No state in Brazil has an Opportunity Index similar to Chile. Several states have an index inferior to Guatemala Uruguay

31. MovingthegoalpostsRelevantbasicopportunitieschangewitheconomicdevelopmentMovingthegoalpostsRelevantbasicopportunitieschangewitheconomicdevelopment Basic Opportunities in Chile

32. Comparison with other indices

34. Questions that arise in applying HOISome examples • Opportunities may need to be defined differently; but that may affect comparability across regions • Social objectives of universality need not necessarily be the same across regions. • Even the same “basic” key goods and service may have to be defined differently for some countries, for HOI to be useful, (Example: basic access to water in LAC, Africa and East Asia • Circumstances are exogenous to the child today, even if they can be influenced by policy (e.g. Child’s orphan status, parents’ education)

35. Human Opportunity Index Is a Inequality -sensitive coverage rate that incorporates: a) The average coverage of a good or service, which society accepts should be universal b) If it is allocated according to an equality of opportunity principle It is a coverage/access rate of a discounted by a penalty for inequality of opportunities It is an inequality adjusted standard. With a standard established by society, with circumstances that define the dimensions of inequality of opportunity established by society.

36. Political imperative of social inclusion leads to the need of measuring progress towards less inequality and poverty • These indicators allow to assess the current performance of the country in the objective of giving every children a chance.

37. Thank you http://www.worldbank.org/poverty

38. Africa – Other definitions of sanitation Flush toilet (owned or shared)

39. Africa – Other definitions of sanitation Flush toilet (owned or shared) and pit toilet latrine

40. Africa – Other definitions of water Piped water (in the household or outside)

41. Africa – Other definitions of water Piped water (in the household or outside), well water or rainwater

42. Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)

43. Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)

44. Brazil: Completion of 8th Grade by 16 years olds)