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Improving AIRPACT-3 System for Enhanced Air Quality Forecasting and Emission Modeling

This document outlines the current status and near-term objectives for the AIRPACT-3 air quality forecasting system. Key topics include system reliability, ammonia emissions from dairy, and wildfire emissions modeling. The objectives aim to migrate operations to a new Linux environment, enhance web capabilities, integrate the Wind Erosion Prediction System, and evaluate the performance of past models. Notable findings from historical data and proposed strategies will improve the accuracy of air quality forecasts and emissions assessments over the coming years.

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Improving AIRPACT-3 System for Enhanced Air Quality Forecasting and Emission Modeling

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  1. AIRPACT-3 status and near-term objectives Joe Vaughan Brian Lamb Jeremy Avise Jack Chen Matt Porter Li Wang

  2. Outline: Status: • Reliability • Dairy Ammonia emissions • BlueSky wildfire emissions (PM2.5 & CO) • (Adjusted Mozart Boundary conditions) • (QuickLook Verification) • Off-line & selective Hg modeling • Dec 2005 PM2.5 Analysis

  3. Near-Term Objectives and work in progress • Convert rainier AIRPACT operations to new Linux box • Re & Development of web sites • WEPS integration • Aug-Nov 2004 Evaluation (& Pathfinding) • Push Forecasts out to 48 or 72 hrs? • Nest to higher resolution sub-domains?

  4. Who’s working on what • Re & Development of web sites: Jennifer Hinds • Hg, N, S deposition (RGI): Matt Porter • Wind Erosion Prediction System: Li Wang • AIRPACT-3(+) evaluation for 2004 Jack Chen • Conversion to new linux system: Joe Vaughan • Satellite data retrieval: Farren Thorpe • Wildfire emissions: Jeremy Avise and Jack Chen

  5. Reliability • November 2006? • Only Nov 26 run CMAQ failed to complete • Failsafe’s operation ran successfully for retrieving EPA CMAQ results • Only to fail on disk space in graphics generation… • CMAQ and forecast graphics generally complete by 4 AM.

  6. Dairy NH3 Emission Module

  7. Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006 WSU Pullman BlueSky/AIRPACT-3 Wildfire Smoke Modeling MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006 Observed Fire Events BlueSky System at Forest Service AIRPACT retrieves: fire location, fire size, heat flux, emissions

  8. EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODEByALICIA K. TONEY

  9. EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODEByALICIA K. TONEY

  10. EVALUATION OF THE AIRPACT-3 AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM FOR A WINTERTIME PM2.5 EPISODE

  11. Moving rainier operations to new linux box • Rainier is (1990s era) DEC-Compaq-HP alpha-based w/ Unix • New box is AMD w/ Debian Linux • Issues: • compiler switches • routine name ‘mangling’ • library creation • path changes • testing

  12. Re & Development of Web Sites • WSU Publication’s Content Mgmt System • Putting web authoring control in LAR • Strategy -- • Shorten cycle for updating project contents. • Standardize web code/technology across projects. • Get standard content in place, then • Focus on data graphics generation, tools, and downloads.

  13. Land Use & Soil Management Weather WEPS-AIRPACT-3 Databases Development Guanglong Feng and Li Wang

  14. Landuse Management Database

  15. BELD3 Dry Crop Type and Percentage

  16. Developed and GriddedSoil Database

  17. Evaluation of AIRPACT-3+ for Aug –– Nov 2004 rerunsby Jack Chen MCIP v3.1 at 21 layers CMAQ v4.6 Aerosol v4 w/ Sea salt Pathfinder for next upgrades for AIRPACT-3, to be implemented once running on new Linux box.

  18. EPA AQS O3 StationsHourly O3 for Aug – Sep 2004

  19. 8-Hr Daily Max O3 Paired by Site/Time

  20. 8-Hr Daily Max O3 Paired by Site/Time

  21. Hour Difference Between OBS. and CTM. Peak Daily 8-Hr O3 Data Paired by Site and Date Number of Data Points: 2265

  22. IMPROVE / EPA-AQS PM StationsAug – Nov 2004

  23. Fractional ErrorBy Site and PM Species for Sep – Nov 2004

  24. Fractional BiasBy Site and PM Species for Sep – Nov 2004

  25. Based on results of evaluations… should we… Push forecasts out to 48 or 72 hrs? Nest to higher resolution sub-domains?

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