Project Management: Parametric Models Beyond Estimates Presented to The NASA Cost Symposium Johnson Space Center Mar

1. � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Management: Parametric Models Beyond Estimates Presented to The NASA Cost SymposiumJohnson Space CenterMarch 10, 2004 Dr. Denton Tarbet Senior Consultant Galorath Incorporated

2. 2 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Management Project management: A discipline that employs skills and knowledge to achieve project goals through various project activities. It involves controlling costs, time, risks, project scope, and quality through project management processes. *

3. 3 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Effective Project Management

4. 4 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Cost Estimation Team Supports the Entire Program Management Life Cycle

5. 5 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Cost Estimation Team Supports Organizing

6. 6 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Cost Estimation Team SupportsLeading

7. 7 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Cost Estimation Team SupportsControlling

8. 8 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Management Credible �PROJECT INFORMATION� is critically important to successful project management!

9. 9 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Metrics For SW Project Management Given the competitive importance of organizational performance and fact-based decision making, measurement programs have become increasingly important within the software and systems engineering communities Measurement can no longer be implemented as a check-the-box process that is rolled out to satisfy a scheduled review or process improvement assessment Measurement must provide real information to support critical project and organizational business and technical decisions, and the measurement results must be effectively communicated and used across the entire corporate entity INFORMATION � NOT DATA!

10. 10 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Earned Value: Measuring Project Progress in Monetary Terms Measure and communicate real physical progress of a project taking into account the work complete, the time taken, and the costs incurred to complete that work A snap-shot of the project that supports comparison of the planned with the actual and make a subjective assessment of the project progress Earned Value metrics demonstrate a level of completed tasks against plan Status of the schedule, ie are the work elements progressing with respect to the project plan Status of project in monetary terms for consistent By extrapolating the curves and further calculation we can also estimate the costs to project completion and the probable completion date

11. 11 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Earned Value Metrics

12. 12 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Earned Value Parameters SV = BCWP � BCWS (the difference between the Earned Value and the planned budget) CV = BCWP � ACWP (the difference between the Earned Value and the actual costs of the work performed) Schedule Performance Index and Cost Performance Index give indications of the health of the project. Is the project on time, in budget or what? Schedule Performance Index is a ratio of Earned Value and the planned value of completed works. A SPI < 1 is not goodSPI = BCWP / BCWS Cost Performance Index is a ratio of Earned Value and the actual costs of completed works. A CPI < 1 is not goodCPI = BCWP / ACWP

13. 13 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Earned Value: Performance Indices

14. 14 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Cost Estimation across the project

15. 15 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Parametric Modeling: Beyond Estimation

16. 16 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Stop Light Charts INFORMATION is provided by tools such as �Stop Light� charts (red, yellow, and green indicators) showing performance across any project phase Stop light charts can be used to provide information that compares project metrics to model projections.

17. 17 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Metrics - Model Projections

18. 18 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Metrics � Model Projections(2)

19. 19 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Metrics � Model Projections(3)

20. 20 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Management � Model Projections High fidelity models provide effective measures to evaluate project metrics Maintaining high fidelity models provides a realistic estimate of cost and cost-to-complete for the program on a continuous basis Maintaining an ongoing analysis of the contractor metrics reports as compared to the parametric model�s projection of the metric. Metrics analysis can be provided as �stop-light� type charts for easy management review, quickly indicating areas of performance that require review.

21. 21 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Quick Look Example

22. 22 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Effort/Schedule Analyst � I would like?? It would be nice if my modeling tool gave me the data I need for project metric comparisons �If you can have anything you want from the tool � What would it be????� A full set of Earned Value type metrics for starters!! BCWS ACWP Earned Value (BCWP) CPI and SPI Cost and schedule variance (It would be nice to have both current and cumulative

23. 23 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Enhancements to SEER-SEMPPT Metrics Fundamental Measures: BCWS � Baseline Plan ACWP � Actual Cost BCWP � Earned Value Variances (Both Current and Cumulative): CV � Cost Variance SV � Schedule Variance WV � Work Variance Performance Indices (Both Current and Cumulative): CPI � Cost Performance Index SPI � Schedule Performance Index TCPI � To Complete Performance Index EAC � Estimate at Complete: Schedule Months Effort Months Effort Hours Development Base Year Cost Effective Lines Effective Functions Effective Size Start Date Completion Date

24. 24 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Project Metrics: Performance Data

25. 25 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Earned Value: Performance Indices

26. 26 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Program Management Support Management �Experts�: Systems development, complex project management experience and parametric modeling expertise to identify, develop, and design applications of models, to improve and optimize the effectively of how we manage development programs for hardware, software, and systems Cost/schedule experts can provide support at multiple levels to Project Management Cost/schedule estimation tools provide modeling and estimation support directly to the evaluation of project metrics Risk analysis and support Cost/schedule models such as SEER-H and SEER-SEM provide �objective� data to support systems analysis decisions and management decisions Support to design and develop reporting tools for: Providing management insight into metrics performance of the contractors, as compared to realistic modeling estimates of performance Maintaining realistic PERT or Gant type schedules, reflecting model projections updated with actuals Maintaining effective cost-to-complete and schedule-to-complete estimates

27. 27 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 SEER-SEM Parametric Performance Tracking SEER-SEM tools are providing INFORMATION to improve Project Management awareness and decision Parametric Performance Tracking metrics add-in to SEER SEM Enterprise is in Alpha testing Project SEER-SEM PPT add-in will ship in Q4 of this year

28. 28 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Recommendation Project Management for large projects (especially multi-year projects with significant software and hardware subsystems) should utilize tools, such as the SEER suite. These tools provide a powerful aid to Project Management, providing �objective information� for systems trade-offs and project management decisions throughout the development, integration, and test of a program�s life cycle.

29. 29 � Galorath Incorporated 2004 Thank you Dr. Denton Tarbet Senior Consultant Galorath Incorporated 310-414-3222 dtarbet@galorath.com www.galorath.com