Tribes and Alchemy Evolution of the Real-Time-Challenged Internet

1. Tribes and AlchemyEvolution of the Real-Time-Challenged Internet Guiding the future of networking by understanding the history P.Asprey Nov 2006

2. 1950 Many Engineering Tribes Telecom, Telemetry, Television, Datacom, Command and Control, Power, Sound What would the Internet look like if they had smoked a peace pipe?

3. Who Said It? • “The idea is idiotic on the face of it…they have not the slightest idea of the true problems involved.’” • “Cell phone voice quality has prepared the public for VoIP.” • “…our network has the fewest dropped calls!” • “Bell Labs engineers said ‘Packet switching won’t work.’” • “IP is so attractive as the packet infrastructure because …. software applications running over IP do not have to be known by the network…Note: To provide the proper prioritization on a congested IP network, it must have some knowledge of the applications.”

4. Who Said It? • “The idea is idiotic on the face of it…they have not the slightest idea of the true problems involved.’” -Western Union re Bell Patent • “Cell phone voice quality has prepared the public for VoIP.” -Dr. Treichler, VoIP Industry • “…our network has the fewest dropped calls!” -Cingular advertising slogan • “Bell Labs engineers said ‘Packet switching won’t work.’” -Roberts of ARPA IPTO • “IP is so attractive as the packet infrastructure because …. software applications running over IP do not have to be known by the network…Note: To provide the proper prioritization on a congested IP network, it must have some knowledge of the applications.” -Cisco white paper on real-time IP

5. Sowing the Seeds - Growing a Communications Network 1890 - 1930’s Hello? Hello? WWI, Aircraft, Wireless Social and Political Bell Telephone patent 4000 Telcos in 1902 Radio, TV Western Union AT&T Antitrust QoS (Urgent Telegram) Radio Shack Talkies NY World’s Fair Telecom Teletype, Switchboards Transmission of words Transmission of sound Character codes Baudot Telegraphy Store & Forward Messaging 20 million phones Public Switched Telephone NW Television, Telegraphy Sound transmission - real-time Words transmission - non-real-time FCC, IEC Standards

6. Era of Big Government Computers 1940-1960 • No high-level policy input from computer scientists • Computing - a new animal • Requires subtle mix of science, engineering • Government agencies,military pay for research • ONR, NBS, DOD, AEC, NASA…uncoordinated G-Jobs • Funded corporations AND were their customers • Government agencies also built their own • Military-University-Complex swells • By 1950 Government spending ~$20 million per year

7. Sowing the Seeds - Era of Government Computers 1940’s Great War, Computing Machines, Cold War • Social and Political • Radar • Manhattan Project/Los Alamos • US gets ‘The Bomb’ • Soviets get ‘The Bomb’ • Balance of Power • Military-University-Complex • Artificial Intelligence • MIT AI Lab Computing ENIAC Whirlwind Computer Stored Program Primitive Transistors Real-time Computing Telecom Traveling Wave Tube Klystron, Magnetron Microwave, FDM 30 Million Telephones Fear! Money! Baby Boomers Basic Computing and Transmission Technologies

8. Sowing the Seeds - Era of Government Computers 1950’s USA Good Guys, Domino Theory, Space Race Social and Political Military work is cool ICBM Detection USSR Sputnik NASA, ARPA Admiral Grace Hopper Double Helix Computing Miniaturization Cheap Transistors Magnetic memory Magnet disk storage COBOL, FORTRAN LISP, ALGOL Telecom Nationwide Dialing Electronic Switching Modems Digital Multiplex T-1 50 Million Telephones Stable Digital Hardware Large, Expensive Computers Compilers, Languages Programming is Interesting

9. Growth - Commercialization of Computers 1960s Military Industrial Complex, Cool Scientists, Star Trek Social and Political Vietnam Anti-War Protests Drug Culture,Genes, Memes NASA - Fault Tolerance NSF Computing Education ARPA Visionaries CompuServe sells timesharing Kleinrock - Packet Switching Theory Mad scientist: Dr. No, Computing MULTICS, UNIX High-speed Data/Fax Integrated Circuits IMP NW Interface Redundancy Dual Core Computing Telecom Dataphone modem Telstar - Voice, TV 24 channel TDM Digital switching Digital signal processing Digital image processing 90 Million Telephones Critical research mass, Stable funding ARPA Graduates Timesharing,Business Computing “Bond, James Bond.”

10. Golden Age of US Research Policy1960-1970 • Eisenhower warning: rise of the ‘Military Industrial Complex’ • Scientists in high places - Eisenhower/JFK • Stable funding, long-term projects, critical mass • ARPA /IPTO (Information Processing Technology Office • “under civilian control” - JFK • Commercial applications. • Banking, airline reservations • Government still paying for internal/external R&D • Telecom research - Telcos and Military Communications

11. 1960’s Scientists in ChargeCreating The Vision and Funding the Research • New ARPA IPTO - Information Processing Technology Office • Crazy is OK: Mechanical elephant…1 crt, many computers • ARPA Diversity: Psychologists and Engineers (no women) Licklider - Man-Computer Symbiosis, Galactic Network Sutherland - Computer graphics, Snake Robot Taylor - Interactive Networks, 3 Terminals Problem Roberts - Cooperative Networks Baran - Secure Packetized Voice (Military) • NSFNet backbone for research only • Internet = NSFNet merged with Arpanet

12. Crosstalk? PSTN vs Packet SwitchingReal-Time Digital Divide • US already had an extensive communications network experience • Public switched telephone network (PSTN) • Telemetry networks real-time, store-and-forward • Data networks (Teletype) and Real-time networks (Voice, Radio, Broadcast) • Computer Scientists vs Telecom Engineers • Different language, journals, conferences, terminology • Telecom - improve quality, reliability of voice NW • Datacom engineers: Voice over IP seems to work…

13. Compares call quality scores for different service providers • Colors represent call quality “MOS” (Mean Opinion Score) rating • Most VoIP calls currently have unacceptable quality rating • Source: • Ellacoya Networks • Explosion of VoIP traffic in last 9 months • Over 250 different VoIP providers • Decrease in average VoIP quality reported in last 3 months

14. Developing the Networks 1970’s Phone Phreaks, PC Revolution, Mad Computers • Social and Political • ARPA to DARPA • Xerox PARC (Taylor) • CS without EE degrees • Vinton Cerf, NCP • Wozniak’s blue box • Entrepreneurs • Jobs, Apple • Gates, Microsoft Computing, Networking UNIX, C PASCAL, Smalltalk Mini, Microcomputers Dial-up NW, Packet Radio TCP/IP Telecom International Dialing Digital CO Switch International Email Telephone hacking Standards, OSI Model, Structured Programming PCs, email, Basic Internet, Demystification of VLSI HAL 9000 2001, A Space Odyssey

15. 1970’s ARPA Gets a D Defense - More Development, Less Research Japanese computer threat (like the automobile) US Semiconductors business drops: 75% to 40% Government-supported research: ‘military relevance’ General skepticism about the role of science DOD funding for mathematics, CS: two-decade low in 1975 1986 dropoff in engineering students (1 generation) ARPA director - industrial background Applications with short time horizons, months instead of years

16. Developing the Network - “Cyberspace” 1980’s Desktop Computing, Email, Divestiture, Netheads • Social and Political • Berlin Wall Falls • DOD in decline • Drives less R&D • NSF Adds $ to Research • Dialup Computer Services • (ruined Bell traffic models) • Netheads vs Bellheads • Powerful Desktops SUN • High-speed graphics, Ethernet, VLSI Computing Electronic Bulletin Boards TCP/IP .gov .com .edu SEMATECH public/private 40% homes w/computers Accidental virus Internet Worm Telecom Synchronous Optical Network TAT-8 ATM/Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network Huge Base of Users Domain Names, Optical NW Less basic research, Anti-virus Software

17. Color Optics and Telecome Overinvestment "Surfing the net" -Vint Cerf 1990’s Color Optics, World Wide Web, Internet Bubble • Social and Political • http.//www. • WorldWideWeb browser • Berners-Lee, CERN • Scramble to support research • Secure Internet Transactions • E-commerce • VoIP (Toll bypass) • 3rd Generation Partnership Project • Net traffic • Doubles every 6 month • Yahoo Networking #data users=#phone users users WWW., browser, Secure Socket Layer Component software JAVA, Color optics VoIP standards, IP PBXs Overbuilt Backbone hides QoS Failings, Internet Bubble Browsers E-Commerce, International email

18. Dot.Bombing and Recovering the Internet 2000’s Broadband, World Wide Wait, Spam, What QoS? Social and Political Peering VoIP difficulties ‘The Google’ Real Y2K problem is .com Bomb Social Networking Viruses and SPAM IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Next Generation Network (NGN) IPv6 supports ATM, MPLS ideas Flow Routing “Net Neutrality” concept Internet Cellular phones > wireline phones IP related revenue almost 3% GWP Carrier Grade VoIP not a reality Flow routing ideas Google is a Verb Problems with Real-Time IP, Peering, Digital Divide, Network Neutrality Issues Social Networking

19. Internet and Beyond IP ”Two tin cans and a string” -anon • TCP/IPv4! Phenomenal results after two decades. • Must re-examine technological assumptions • cheap memory and processors • huge bandwidth • Must define next generation requirements • crazy is OK…e.g. real-time applications work • Must create the vision and fund the research • US R&D flat at 2.6 percent of GDP for FOUR decades • Federal share dropped from 2/3 to 1/4 of that • Must NOT entrust research to corporations!

20. Alchemy! Innovation and Wealth “The greatest legal creation of wealth in history”-John Doerr, VC • During the Cold War, millions of taxpayer dollars were funneled into basic research in computing • That Money emerged 40 years later as private wealth: • Start-ups and IPO’s • VCs and Investment Bankers • Is that money being re-circulated into US basic research? • Lear Jets and vacation homes • The “Trickle Out” theory • Are innovators rewarded proportionately? • More MBAs than Engineering degrees… • Quality and reliability - casualties of this gold rush?

21. Real-time Voice/Video and Data TrafficHow Different Are They? Fundamentally. Voice or Video Traffic • Real-Time (human speech) • Continuous, full duplex • Tolerant of errors, lost packets • Intolerant of transmission delays • Lost packets can’t be retransmitted Data Traffic • Not Real-Time (email, web browsing) • Bursty • Intolerant of errors, lost packets must be resent • Tolerant of delays

22. Real-Time and IPLayer 8: The human eye, ear, brain IP Philosophy - Let the higher-level protocols recover from lost packets 3 million years of evolution, no upgrades likely soon! different protocols, different ISP delays, firewalls,.. ATM Forum: “Just give us a bit” - Netheads IP by-passes QoS potential of ATM Solving a different problem (data) MPLS - ATM without cells RTP - Real-Time Packet protocol Sequence and relative timestamp Anti-tromboning Now you KNOW you have jitter!

23. Tragedy of the CommonsNet Neutrality:Every packet for itself! • Peer-2-peer networks, Gamers, Spammers • Google rankings ploys • Myspace media madness, • Broadcast TV, Video on demand • Reliable User Data Protocol (RUDP) Sends multiple copies of the same packet Receiver discards redundant packets ONE of the packets will make the journey! Excellent solution for congestion:Add packets!

24. Strong Rise in Symmetric Peer-to-peer Applications P2P Symmetrical Usage • More than ½ of all Internet traffic is peer-to-peer file sharing • Soon “robotic” application traffic will dominate networks • P2P traffic is often symmetric (same amount upstream and downstream) • thwarts traffic models and architectures

25. The Perfect Network • Adjust network to user, not user to network • Self-healing when a node is ‘lost’ • Self-provisioning when a node is ‘added’ • Self-balancing network, minimal traffic engineering! • Don’t let me start unless I can finish • Closed-loop applications - remote medicine • Priorities based on USER choices • Real-time traffic accomodated • Secure, control spam, denial of service, etc.

26. Who? “The network is the computer.”- Scott McNealy Desktop computing has grown too complex, ugly Backup, security, compatibility, cookies, browsers, etc. Frustrated users abound…nerd market saturated ASP (Google-type) Calendar - other ‘office’ applications? Are Traditional carriers are the most logical providers of the ‘new network’? • Have done dialtone, videotone, and wirelesstone for a long time • More reliable, predictable, and credible than computer industry • Ubiquity: Web-site tone, you-name-it tone to all of us • Know how to bill millions of people for billions of transactions • Have the infrastructure and field service, “the man in the van”

27. Now What? • Fund science education (eliminate AP Classes?) • Fund taxpayer-owned basic research • Civilians in charge, NASA, IPTO as models • No corporate secrecy or backwards compatibility requirements • No company can bury or force direction on research • Research is NOT a Manhattan Project. Start soon!!! • Do we regulate ‘web-tone’ for the ‘Better Good’? • E.g. AT&T Long-distance service subsidies for remote services • Need reliable infrastructure, not peering problems • Go beyond entrenched IP Players - create diverse sets of network designers and dreamers (women too!) …. Smoke a Peace Pipe and share some knowledge!

28. Final: Who said it? The term "cyberspace" has past its sell-by date… The problem is that everything has become an aspect of, well, cyberspace… The internet feels less like an alternate world that we 'go to' and more like just another layer of life."

29. Final: Who said it? The term "cyberspace" has past its sell-by date… The problem is that everything has become an aspect of, well, cyberspace… The internet feels less like an alternate world that we 'go to' and more like just another layer of life." William Gibson (Coined the term ‘cyberspace’ in his 1984 Neuromanser sci-fi novel.)