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The End of the Transition Paradigm. Thomas Carothers, 2002 Presented by: Salwa Tobbala April 19, 2010. 20 th Century Third Wave of Democracy. Southern Europe in the mid-1970s: fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes
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The End of the Transition Paradigm Thomas Carothers, 2002 Presented by: Salwa Tobbala April 19, 2010
20th Century Third Wave of Democracy Southern Europe in the mid-1970s: fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes Latin America from the late 1970s -late 1980s: replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments East and South Asia mid-1980s: decline of authoritarian rule in parts of Eastern Europe end of the 1980s: collapse of communist regimes Soviet Union 1991: breakup and establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics Sub-Saharan Africa first half of the 1990s: decline of one-party regimes in many parts of Some Middle Eastern countries 1990s: weak but recognizable liberalizing trend
5 Core AssumptionsTransition Paradigm In Transition toward Democracy Democratization in Sequence: Opening – Breakthrough – Consolidation Importance of Elections No pre-conditions Democracy building and state-building
Gray Zone Dictatorship Liberal Democracy
How to move forward? Discard the transition paradigm’s five assumptions Social Economic Development beside democracy-building Country-specific patterns of political life:
