1 / 12

Agents as Methodology: Some Speculations

Agents as Methodology: Some Speculations. Rob Axtell. Outline. Topic 1 : Price of computing is falling very (exponentially) fast! Topic 2 : How can we compete with the next generation of ACEs who will have a terabyte of RAM on the laptops?

wforney
Télécharger la présentation

Agents as Methodology: Some Speculations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AgentsasMethodology:Some Speculations Rob Axtell

  2. Outline • Topic 1: Price of computing is falling very (exponentially) fast! • Topic 2: How can we compete with the next generation of ACEs who will have a terabyte of RAM on the laptops? • Topic 3: If we could build SimEverything would it change anything/everything? • Topic 4: Are there any general principles of economics that are always and everywhere true?

  3. Price of Computing • Facts? • Mathematics and computing as substitutes • Fixed price of mathematics • Declining price of computing • Substitution effect: reasonably clear • Income effect: could computing be a null commodity (neither a ‘good’ nor a ‘bad)? • Will we see an exponential migration to computer utilization and computational expression?

  4. Capital StockTurnover • Given substitution of computation for mathematics, how will human capital stocks respond? • Will there be orderlyturnover or will the overinvestment unwind in a disorderly way? • Could turmoil end in global devaluation of the currency or only local losses?

  5. Moore's Law, I • Mainframes c. 1960 (first microsimulation models): 16 Kilobytes core memory • Desktop microcomputers c. 1990: 16 Megabytes RAM • Laptops c. 2000: 1/2 Gigabyte RAM • Notebooks c. 2010: 16 Gigabytes RAM • Handhelds (?) c. 2020: 1/2 Terabyte RAM? • ??? c. 2030: 16 Terabytes RAM?  1.6 x 1013 bytes/105 bytes/agent = 108 agents

  6. Moore's Law, II • Desktops c. 1990: 16 Megabytes RAM • Desktops c. 2000: 1.6 Gigabyte RAM • Desktops c. 2005: 16 Gigabytes RAM • Desktops c. 2010: 160 Gigabytes RAM? • Desktops c. 2015: 1.6 Terabytes RAM? • Desktops c. 2020: 16 Terabytes RAM? • Desktops c. 2025: 160 Terabytes RAM? • Desktops c. 2030: 1.6 Petabytes RAM?  1.6 x 1015 bytes/106 bytes/agent = 109 agents

  7. How Can We Competewith our future selves? • In my humble opinion (IMHO): • Sugarscape is hopelessly outdated… • …but the Anasazi model will stand for some time • The current generation of artificialfinancialmarkets will be improved upon… • …but soon we will have very realistic simulations • Necessary condition for success: data • Pick problems that can be scaled to available resources

  8. Sim Everything • Say the economics or finance minister of your country came to you and said: “The Americans are building a computer model of the whole world, and we want you to build one for us.” • What would you say or do? • Laugh? • Say you want to hear more? • Commit to doing it but you will need a research team and $10 million/year of research support • plus money for a Summer School!!

  9. Revenge ofHomo Economicus • Imagine a population that wears arbitrary amounts of computing power • What could they do that we cannot? • Get good prices on airlinetickets? • Know exactly when to buy and sell equities? • Figure out what lottery numbers to bet on? • Maybe institutions become more sophisticated and people turn over some autonomy

  10. If everything can be simulated... • …are there really any general economic principles that are universally valid? • ‘law of one price’? • ‘competition picks better products’ • … • Are there any empirical ‘laws’ in economics? • Or, is everything contingent, context dependent, relative and conditional?

  11. Our Non-Elephants • Non-Walrasian markets: • Decentralized exchange (including networks) • ZI exchange • Non-Coasian firms: • Multi-agent firms • Non-Nash game theory: • Adaptive agents, who avoid/eschew fixed points and perpetually seek utility gains

  12. Not the End...but the Beginning Thank you all for a great Summer School!

More Related