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2011 Census

2011 Census. 2007 Census Test – emerging findings Garnett Compton, ONS. BSPS – 12 September 2007. Updated 4 September 2007. Session Aim. Aim: To share emerging findings from the 2007 Census Test Outline plan for publishing 2007 Census Test evaluation

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2011 Census

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  1. 2011 Census 2007 Census Test – emerging findings Garnett Compton, ONS BSPS – 12 September 2007 Updated 4 September 2007

  2. Session Aim Aim: • To share emerging findings from the 2007 Census Test • Outline plan for publishing 2007 Census Test evaluation • Present a brief update on other 2011 Census developments

  3. Contents • Test background • Results: • Address register development • Post-out/hand delivery • Income question • Key findings of 2007 Test • Further evaluation and publication • Did you know ….

  4. 2007 Census Test - Objectives Test objectives: • Assess the effect on response of: • Inclusion of an income question; and • the use of post-out to deliver questionnaires. • Assess the feasibility of major innovations in proposed 2011 Census operational procedures: • Outsourcing of field staff recruitment, pay and training; • development of an operational intelligence system to enable individual questionnaires to be tracked; and, • development of an address list and address checking procedures.

  5. 2007 Census Test - Sample sizes by LA and ETC

  6. 2007 Census Test – High-level Design • Address checking • Conducted in all Test areas during Sept and October • Split discretionary and full contact methods • Used controlled errors • Delivery • 50% Post-out, 50% hand delivery • 50% questionnaires income, 50% no income • For hand delivery 3 attempts at contact over 2 week period • Collection/Follow-up • Central post-back • 23 May – 22 June • 3 attempts everywhere • reminder letter to all outstanding addresses as at 31 May

  7. 2007 Census Test – Key constraints Key constraints affecting evaluation of the Test: • Voluntary • Relied on public’s good will to complete a return • Publicity • Sample – skewed to harder to enumerate areas • Follow-up • Fixed number of follow-up attempts everywhere

  8. Results

  9. Household* return rates by LA * As at 15 July

  10. Household* return rates by ETC * As at 15 July

  11. Address register development Results

  12. Key results • Address checking (AC) found about 12% new addresses • Time consuming to validate and update AR • 4.4% (4,400) of questionnaires undelivered • Of which 17% were added by address checkers • Reasons include vacant properties, non-existing addresses, duplicate addresses. • 1,200 new addresses found during enumeration • Of which, over 50% found at follow-up. • Nearly 70% of new addresses were sub-premise addresses – suggest existed at time of AC.

  13. Early conclusions • Suggests we need to plan to do a 100% address check in 2011 no matter what the delivery design. • Plan is for a rolling address check over a longer period of time (4-6 months). • enables better quality address checking; and, • enables more time to update the final address register with Address check findings. • Consider a re-address check shortly before the Census in a small %’age of areas

  14. Early conclusions cont … • Main enumeration and controlled errors didn't identify all missing addresses – need to improve methods and guidance • Issues around whether information with address suppliers can be shared; • Criteria for deciding which address products to use as a base under consideration.

  15. Delivery Method Results

  16. Household return rates* by delivery method by ETC * As at 15 July

  17. Success rates* at follow-up by delivery method by ETC * As at 15 July

  18. Delivery method – estimated cost savings * At the start of follow-up – 23 May

  19. Address register coverage

  20. Delivery method - conclusions • Post-out has an impact on return rates, minimal impact which can be addressed through additional follow-up. • A post-out methodology will provide significant savings (£25-£33m) to invest in targeted follow-up and community liaison. • Improvements identified for the address register and follow-up procedures suggest that the levels of AR undercoverage will be small and manageable. Decision: In E&W, post-out will be the primary means (at least 85%) of delivering questionnaires in 2011.

  21. Income – Setting the scene Including income depends on: • results from the Test; and, • consultation on other topics and relative priority of income in relation to other demands. Further analysis required as follows: • Quality and accuracy of responses to income question • Item imputation rates • Public perception • Other data sources

  22. Household return rates* by income/no income question by ETC * As at 15 July

  23. 2007 Census Test - Key findings Delivery method • In E&W, post-out will be the primary method (at least 85%) of delivering questionnaires in 2011. Address register development • Address checking will be required for 2011, currently planning 100% for E&W. Outsourcing recruitment, training and pay: • Worked well in the Test and are considering outsourcing for 2011;

  24. Other key findings: Recruitment: • More difficult than expected in some areas, mostly delivery enumerators. • Good MI to identify and manage problems early. Training: • Some development issues with e-learning but overall well received/effective. Pay: • Much simpler system defined thereby avoiding some of the problems experienced in 2001. • Hourly pay worked well, provided good control and flexibility; travel expenses still considered cumbersome. Refinement for 2011 required.

  25. Other key findings: LA Liaison: • Principles and benefits of LA Liaison proven. • Variable engagement across the LAs – some more engaged than others • Going forward we need to consider: • methods for achieving more consistency across LAs; • Making it simpler for ONS and LAs • Achieving Chief Exec buy-in. Follow-up: • Transfer of information held centrally to field staff worked well within the constraints of the Test. • A good start to follow-up is imperative – need to review start dates. • Organisation and management of field staff worked well, but more development required on doorstep interaction to convince respondent to respond.

  26. 2007 Census Test Evaluation– planned publications

  27. Did you know? Some other key Census developments: • Rehearsal - Spring 2009 • Route A – contract to be let in January 2008 • Route C – start procurement in January 2008 • Finalising questionnaire – Spring 2008 • White Paper – Autumn 2008

  28. Questions ????

  29. Household return rates* by delivery method by LA * As at 15 July

  30. Household return rates* by income/no income question by LA * As at 15 July

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