Download
1 / 12
120 likes | 125 Vues
The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 12, 2014. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
E N D
The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 12, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, it is notable that the rainfall amounts over all of India and almost over all of China is at near or slightly above normal levels. However, northwestern Australia, Koreas, Japan, and over major parts of southeast Asian countries, rainfall has been below normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the rainfall picture is relatively very similar to the 90-day picture, except over northwestern Australia, where it is near normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, well before the start of the SW summer monsoon over India, rainfall was unusually above normal over most of peninsular south India, northeastern India, and across eastern China.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, it is notable that the rainfall amounts over all of India and almost over all of China is at near or slightly above normal levels. However, northwestern Australia, Koreas, Japan, and over major parts of southeast Asian countries, rainfall has been below normal. For the past 30 days also, the rainfall picture is relatively very similar to the 90-day picture, except over northwestern Australia, where it is near normal. In this past week, well before the start of the SW summer monsoon over India, rainfall was unusually above normal over most of penisnsular south India, northeastern India, and across eastern China. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts the above normal rainfall over Burma and southeastern China, but less rainfall elsewhere.
