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Illinois Governor's Climate Change Policy Proposals Portfolio Scenarios Draft

Explore various policy scenarios modeled by the Illinois Climate Change Advisory Group on July 10, 2007. Includes emissions reductions strategies with and without cap-and-trade proposals. Consideration of leakage effects and optional runs for additional policy evaluations.

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Illinois Governor's Climate Change Policy Proposals Portfolio Scenarios Draft

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  1. Illinois Governor Rod R. BlagojevichClimate Change Advisory Group(ICCAG)Modeling of Policy Proposals July 10, 2007DRAFT – Numbers subject to revision

  2. Policy Proposals

  3. Policy Proposals

  4. Policy Proposals

  5. Portfolio Scenarios • Portfolio Runs: (In addition to the Reference Case) • All strategies approved for modeling by the ICCAG (“All-In”) excluding CT-05-12. • (Note – CT-10-16 included in “All In” but CT-05-12 excluded at present) • All-In with linkage to the RGGI states. • All-In: Assume high oil and natural gas prices (based on RGGI high prices) • All-In minus the Cap and Trade (CT-10-16) proposal

  6. Portfolio Scenarios • Optional Runs: (if time and resources permit) • For each run all Policies with the following changes: • Minus proposal EP-50-09, CCS Portfolio Standard. • Minus cap and trade plus a modification of Proposal EP-05-05, Carbon Performance Standards, to include existing sources as well as new sources (effectively Carbon Performance Standard replaces Cap and Trade). • Apply cap and trade to existing sources only (carbon performance standards still apply to new sources). • For Proposal TR-10-18, California Vehicle Emissions Standards, assume change to vehicle purchase price as per auto manufacturers’ projections. • With Proposals CI-40-02 (Tree Planting), CI-10-21 (No-till Farming), and CI-30-11 (Methane Capture) eligible as offset projects under Cap and Trade but not eligible for other new incentives.

  7. Illinois GHG Emissions – Base Case

  8. Illinois GHG Emissions- with Policies

  9. Illinois GHG Emissions- with Policies

  10. Policy “Leakage” • A portion of emission reductions associated with some policies may occur outside of Illinois. • Model tracks emissions in Illinois, surrounding region and balance of continent. • Additional analysis will be provided to identify policies subject to such “leakage”

  11. Policy “Leakage” • Initial policies identified as affected by “leakage” • Electric energy efficiency policies – power may still be generated for sale outside of Illinois.

  12. Questions?

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