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Projecting GHG emissions & removals New Zealand Leonard Brown New Zealand Climate Change Office

Projecting GHG emissions & removals New Zealand Leonard Brown New Zealand Climate Change Office Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004. Institutional arrangements (for inventory & projections). Ministry of Economic Development

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Projecting GHG emissions & removals New Zealand Leonard Brown New Zealand Climate Change Office

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  1. Projecting GHG emissions & removals New Zealand Leonard Brown New Zealand Climate Change Office Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004

  2. Institutional arrangements(for inventory & projections) Ministry of Economic Development Energy & Industrial Processes emissions Ministry for the Environment Waste emissions New Zealand Climate Change Office Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Agriculture emissions Forestry removals & emissions

  3. “With additional measures” scenarios GDP 1.5% Energy efficiency Price measures GDP 2.5% GDP 3.5% “With measures” scenarios Energy Sector Energy prices Energy quantity model GDP Socio-economic Population Projected energy emissions RDI Emission factors National GHG Inventory

  4. Carrying capacity Weather $NZ Prices Livestock data Agriculture Animals by species: beef, sheep, dairy, deer - PRSM Productivity & emissions per animal. Forecast of nitrogen fertiliser usage. • Policies & Measures • Environmental N constraints • Price measures (C) • Research

  5. Agriculture improvements General model development: data quality and equations Changes in input parameters over time, e.g. forage quality Sensitivity analysis and scenario building Improved estimation carrying capacity estimate Improved stock unit estimation by livestock class

  6. 10000 ha 10% deforestation 30000 ha 0% deforestation 20000 ha 5% deforestation planting and Kyoto deforestation scenarios Forestry Key drivers • Area planted in Kyoto forests to date • Scenarios of future new forest planting • Carbon accumulation models • Assumed rotation length • Deforestation

  7. Forestry improvements • Modelling Capability and Flexibility Improve modelling – scenarios, vary multiple parameters • New Zealand Carbon Accounting System Refine & validate the accuracy of plantings since 1990 Refine and spatialise growth rates of planted forest Improve deforestation estimate Improve estimate of carbon in all pools for all forest

  8. Cross-cutting issues • Transparency of methods, assumptions & data UNFCCC, New Zealand industry, NZCCO • Consistency of assumptions across sectors GDP, population • Uncertainty Monte-Carlo method – PDF, inputs & correlations • Validation & verification assumptions, projected inputs, bias and uncertainty • Long-term projections vs. inventory data and short-term windows

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