Stockton/San Joaquin County Ceasefire Summary & Update August 2013

1. Stockton/San Joaquin County CeasefireSummary & UpdateAugust 2013

2. The context: summary • Over the past 28 years, Stockton has averaged 40 homicides per year. Its violent crime rate is consistently double – and sometimes more than triple – the state average. • Over the past five years, homicides have reached an average of 47 per year and a high of 71. • Anthony Braga, a criminologist at Harvard and Rutgers University, found that during the implementation of “Ceasefire I” in Stockton (1998-2002), overall homicide was reduced by 43%. • This was the longest period of sustained reductions in the past 28 years. • During that period, homicides averaged 31 per year. • (Today we’ll be talking about Ceasefire II.)

3. The context: violent crime in Stockton

4. Context: Groups play a key role Historically, gangs, sets, crews and other groups play a significant role in violent crime in Stockton. These active groups and individuals play a role in over 60% and up to 80% of the homicides in Stockton. There are 34+/- groups citywide, but over the past two years only 18 have been actively violent. These 18 groups have a current membership of approximately 700 – even fewer of these individuals are at very highest risk of violence at any one time.

5. Findings: Summary of group member-involved violence

6. Ceasefire: the Research • Study Main Outcome • Boston Operation Ceasefire -63% youth homicide • Indianapolis IVRP -34% total homicide • Stockton Operation Peacekeeper -42% gun homicide • Lowell PSN -44% gun assaults • Cincinnati CIRV -42% GMI homicide, -22% nonfatal shootings • Newark Ceasefire No sig. reduction in gunshot wound incidents • LA Operation Ceasefire Sig. short-term reduction in violent, gun crime • Chicago PSN -37% homicide, -30% recidivism rate • High Point DMIs 3 of 4 neighborhoods had -44%-56% in part I UCR crime; all up to -74% in drug offenses • Nashville DMI -55% reduction in drug offenses • Rockford DMI -22% non-violent offenses • Hawaii HOPE -26% recidivism rate • Boston Re-entry Init. -30% recidivism for violent crime

7. Ceasefire: the research (2) Effective – imagine flipping a coin 13 times & getting heads 12 times – effective across different cities, groups& economic conditions. Driven by communication: Makes highest-risk individuals & groups aware of the personal & community costs involved in violence by sharing in a direct, respectful manner. Ceasefire’s hard. Many cities that start fail to fully implement/sustain. Long term correlations between quality of implementation & results (Boston, Cincinnati).

8. 10 Control Variables Gun Recoveries Sentence Length 5 Forums 0 -0.8 -1 -2.2 -5 -2.7 Prosecutions -10 -11 -15 Combined Effect -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -40.1 -45 The role of direct communication Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment” In Chicago, the impact of direct communication (“call-ins”) on violence was the most powerful part of the strategy. **N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression

9. What we mean by “communication” • SMALL MEETINGS: “CALL INS” • Places of community importance: churches, community centers. Seating: square or circle. • Highest-risk young men (& families, supporters): 5-20+. • Neighborhood leaders, formerly incarcerated, LEspeak: 8-10, to the point (3-4 mins), 1 hr max. • Message: we care about & respect you, cost of violence to them & community (including consequences): no lectures/scare tactics: clearly stated that violence must stop SCP

10. Call-Ins: The Basic Set Up Supporters Time-keeper

11. Call-ins: Speaker Order CO-HOSTS:CLERGY LEADER, POLICE CHIEF FORMERLY-INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER FORMERLY- INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER CLERGY/SPIRITUAL LEADER VICTIM OF VIOLENCE HIGH SCHOOL PRINCIPAL PD REP DISTRICT ATTORNEY: PROBATION OFFICER: US ATTORNEY: CO-HOSTS: SUMMARIZEMESSAGING… (…TRANSITION TO DINNER, STATEMENTS OF COMMITMENT BY SERVICE PROVIDERS & CONVERSATIONS W/COMMUNITY VOLUNTEERS) 45 Min TOTAL

12. Implementation update, early results • Night walks begin in fall 2012. • One-on-one Ceasefire messaging begins in mid-November 2012. • Call-ins convened on April 11 & August 8, with next scheduled for November 2013 • (Analysis is ongoing, including May 7, 2013 SPD/Probation Dept. Social Network Analysis workshop w/Andrew Papachristos of Yale University. • YTD 2013 homicides are down approx. 60% compared to 2012, YTD non-fatal injury shootings are down approx. 50%.

13. Next steps: institutionalize & expand reach, with continued focus on core implementation cycle