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Root Causes of Terrorism

Root Causes of Terrorism. Rob McCabe. Research Question. Do items such as Human Development Index scores, level of freedom, and ethnic fractionalization serve as indicators for the level of a country ’ s terrorist activity?. Research Hypothesis.

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Root Causes of Terrorism

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  1. Root Causes of Terrorism Rob McCabe

  2. Research Question Do items such as Human Development Index scores, level of freedom, and ethnic fractionalization serve as indicators for the level of a country’s terrorist activity? Research Hypothesis Nations with low HDI scores, low freedom, and high levels of fractionalization will have higher levels of terrorist activity.

  3. Literature Review • The European Union’s Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) • Report examines attacks throughout the EU to determine trends annually • In the EU, there has been a 40% decrease between 2008 and 2009 • Western Europe is being used as a preparation zone for global attacks • Weak states, economic problems and social grievances are major contributors to terrorism

  4. Democracy, Foreign Policy and Terrorism by Burcu Savun and Brian J. Phillips • The authors hypothesize that democracy can lead to transnational terrorism • “States that are actively involved in international politics are likely to create resentment abroad and hence more likely to be the target of transnational terrorism “ (Savun and Phillips 2009, p 879). • Nations active in foreign politics can be targets for transnational terrorism, and create little to no domestic terrorism

  5. Data • Dependent Variable: Terrorist attacks per 100,000 citizens (2008) • Independent Variables: Human Development Index, Level of Freedom, Ethnic and Religious Fractionalization • Sources: Freedom House, Center for Defense Information, the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System from the National Counterterrorism Center, and from the Spring 2009 Democracy CrossnationalDatabase

  6. Descriptive Statistics Bivariate Correlations

  7. Scatter Plot Matrix

  8. Regression Analysis

  9. Regression Analysis – Best Model

  10. Findings • The relationship between dependent and independent variables is not significant • Data from additional countries may show a stronger relationship between terrorism and the indicators • The data could be improved by differentiating between transnational terrorism and domestic terrorism • Accounting for nations in or near conflict may also improve the data analysis

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