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Explore the electoral rewards and punishment for legislative behavior in the UK during the era of localized campaigning effects, particularly focusing on the 2005 elections. Analyze the correlation between backbench rebellions and electoral performance, highlighting key instances from 2001-2005, like the Higher Education Bill debates. Delve into the complexities of voting patterns and factors influencing MPs' decisions.
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Being Policed? Or Just Pleasing Themselves? Electoral Rewards and Punishment for Legislative Behaviour in an Era of Localized Campaigning Effects: The Case of the UK in 2005
Why? • Dealigned • Increasingly localised • Increasing information • ‘Safe’ to protest voting • So Now Who Do We Vote For? • Plenty of issues • Plenty of variance
Backbench rebellions, 2001-2005 • highest rate of rebellion since 1945 • more in first session, Labour • most in final session since 1945 • the largest Labour health rebellion • the largest Labour education rebellion • the (joint) largest rebellion at a Bill’s Second Reading since 1945 • the two largest rebellions by MPs of all parties for over 150 years.
Overall correlation between rebellion and electoral performance -0.06
Why things are complicated: Higher Education Bill • Second Reading – on the principle of the Bill as then constituted. • Report Stage - to remove clauses relating to top up fees. • Third Reading – the vote on the Bill as finally constituted.