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Offshore Wind Integration Studies at PJM September 13, 2012

Offshore Wind Integration Studies at PJM September 13, 2012. Steven Herling Vice President, Planning PJM Interconnection. 2010 RTEP - Conceptual Offshore Wind Study. Reliability + Market Efficiency Entirely Offshore Wind Injected at 4 locations Hudson, Larrabee, Indian River, Fentress

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Offshore Wind Integration Studies at PJM September 13, 2012

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  1. Offshore Wind Integration Studies at PJMSeptember 13, 2012 Steven Herling Vice President, Planning PJM Interconnection

  2. 2010 RTEP - Conceptual Offshore Wind Study • Reliability + Market Efficiency • Entirely Offshore Wind • Injected at 4 locations • Hudson, Larrabee, Indian River, Fentress • 4 Scenarios • No wind • 10 GW, 20 GW, 30 GW • Conclusion • Market efficiency simulated almost no wind curtailment at 10GW peneteration. • Moderate curtailment at 20GW penetration • Major curtailment at 30GW penetration www.pjm.com

  3. 2011 RTEP RPS Scenario Studies • Satisfy RPS needs with PJM resources • Multiple sourcing scenarios for ~ 40 GW total of wind • 20 GW offshore • 4 GW offshore • Study identified congestion at the injection points that would require significant transmission investment.

  4. 2012 RTEP Analysis

  5. 2012 RTEP • Building off the work done in the 2011 RTEP • Evaluating three sourcing scenarios to meet PJM RPS requirements in 2027 • 36 GW wind and 3.6 GW solar • Scenario 1 – source all RPS from within PJM with 7 GW offshore wind and 29 GW from land-based wind • Scenario 2 – source all RPS from land-based resources • Scenario 3 – wind sourced 60% internal to PJM and 40% from MISO / SPP

  6. 2012 RTEP – Preliminary Analysis • Purpose • Initial modeling and analyses focused on validating the ability of the production cost simulation tools to model a system similar to the AWC project including offshore wind resources interconnected via HVDC. • Leveraged modeling and analysis done as part of the 2011 RTEP

  7. Input Assumptions • Preliminary set of PROMOD runs using last year’s base case: • Study year 2016 • PJM Deactivations not modeled • 2011 RTEP power flow case (no MAPP, PATH) • Gas forecast: Henry Hub ~7 $/MMBtu • HVDC Terminals & Wind Injection Points: • Hudson1 (PSEG) • Cardiff (Atlantic Electric) • Indian River (DP&L) • Navy (Dominion) • Offshore wind profile parameters (NREL data) : • CF 47% • Annual Total Energy ~16,401 GWh for 4000 MW nameplate • HVDC lines modeled with no losses, no operating restrictions.

  8. AWC Scenarios Overview

  9. Offshore Flows – HVDC Tie Flows

  10. Onshore Flows (Net Flow from HVDC terminals) • Results shows that the flows going onshore, out from the HVDC terminals, are indifferent to the wind injection point - PROMOD yields the optimal onshore injection pattern no matter of the particular position of the wind farm on the HVDC. • Indian River appears to be the preferred injection point - may be a factor of the number of flow gates (or lack thereof) modeled for Delmarva peninsula. • There is no wind curtailment, the wind profile is used at full capacity. • Flows from Navy HVDC terminal always heavy into the HVDC line, going north. • The total net flows toward shore, in the base case, is not zero, due to a small amount of bus load at the injection points.

  11. LMP Impacts The charts show the incremental LMP impact (On-Peak and Off-Peak) of adding the stand-alone HVDC system to the Base Case, then adding the Offshore Wind to the HVDC System.

  12. LMP Impacts – Radial Injection vs. HVDC

  13. LMP Impacts – Radial Injection vs. HVDC

  14. Next Steps • Update modeling consistent with 2012 RTEP Assumptions • Footprint includes PJM, MISO • 2017 updated power flow topology • Updated Gas forecast: Henry Hub ~4.9 $/MMBtu • PJM Announced Deactivations • Installed Renewable Resources consistent with the RPS requirements of PJM states. • Consider the states request requirements: • 7000MW Offshore Wind • AWC HVDC System modeled as controllable system to optimize the wind injection. • Study year 2023 • Customized outputs reports by state: production cost savings; avoided congestion savings; pollution reduction benefits, etc.

  15. 2012 RTEP – 7GW Radial Injection www.pjm.com

  16. 2012 RTEP – 7GW Offshore with HVDC Interconnection www.pjm.com

  17. Offshore Wind Joint Study – NCTPC • PJM is also engaged in a joint study with the North Carolina Transmission Planning Collaborative. • Evaluating three scenarios • 1000 MW injection at Landstowne, Morehead City and Southport • 2000 MW injection at Landstowne and 1500 MW injection at Morehead City and Southport • 4500 MW injection at Landstowne and a 3500 MW injection at Morehead City and a 2000 MW injection at Southport • Reliability analysis of the three scenarios is in-progress www.pjm.com

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