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Predictors of Success in Distance Education Courses 2000-01 to 2004-05 Mohamed Eisa & Dale Craig

Predictors of Success in Distance Education Courses 2000-01 to 2004-05 Mohamed Eisa & Dale Craig Diablo Valley College. Introduction.

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Predictors of Success in Distance Education Courses 2000-01 to 2004-05 Mohamed Eisa & Dale Craig

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  1. Predictors of Success in Distance Education Courses 2000-01 to 2004-05 Mohamed Eisa & Dale Craig Diablo Valley College

  2. Introduction • Offering courses in flexible formats, where learning can take place anytime and anywhere, is one of the hallmarks of the present information age. This transformation was necessary to meet the growing needs of people with jobs and family responsibilities.

  3. Introduction • In the past five years, online course offerings at Diablo Valley College witnessed a phenomenal expansion that far exceeds the overall enrollment growth during this period. It is anticipated that such expansion will continue unabated for several years to come.

  4. Introduction This study will address the the following issues related to online courses: • Enrollment trends • Demographic profile of students • Academic productivity • Academic performance of students • Predictors of success in online courses • Recommendations for improvement

  5. Methodology Three methodologies are used in this study: • Analysis of data from the MIS Datatel system related to student enrollment, demographics, productivity, and academic performance • Discussion of the underlying differences between online and face-to-face courses through focus groups that include faculty, staff, and students • Literature review

  6. Enrollment Trends Enrollment in online courses is measured in several ways including: • Enrollment by full-time equivalent students (FTES) • Enrollment by seat count • Enrollment by disciplines and courses • Enrollment by course duration • Enrollment by head count

  7. Enrollment by Full-Time Equivalent Students (FTES) • DVC’s enrollment in distance education courses increased significantly over the past five years, with every term setting a new record that surpassed that of the previous one. • In 2004-05, online courses generated 774 FTES, accounting for 4.4% of the total FTES for the year. In effect, online courses are gradually becoming the source of a modest portion of the revenue generated by the college.

  8. Enrollment by Full-Time Equivalent Students (FTES) • On a term-by-term basis, summer terms had a twenty- fold increase, fall terms a 270% increase, and spring terms a 231% increase over five years. • The annual FTES (774) in 2004-05 was more than four times as much as that (184) of 2000-01. With the convenience of online courses and increasing technological sophistication of students, this mode of course delivery will continue to expand in future years.

  9. DVC Enrollment by FTES2000-01 to 2004-05

  10. Enrollment by Seat Count • Summer enrollments increased twelve-fold in five years, fall enrollments by 250%, and spring enrollments by 230%. Furthermore, there have been no dips or setbacks in enrollment, only steady increases. • The spring 2005 seat count enrollment in online courses was 4.7% of DVC’s total seat count enrollment (2,751 out of 58,968), compared to only 1.4% in Spring 2001 (834 out of 61,211).

  11. Enrollment by Seat Count • The annual online share rose from 1.1% to 4.4%. Although distance education represents a relatively smaller portion of the overall course offerings at the college, it is increasingly becoming more significant; and planning for the college needs to take its steady growth into account.

  12. Online Enrollment as a Percent of Total Seat Count, 2000-01 to 2004-05

  13. Enrollment by Discipline • Academic disciplines are organized on the basis of California Community Colleges Taxonomy of Program (TOP). TOP is a classification system that includes 24 disciplines and over 200 sub-disciplines. • The college as a whole offers courses in 21 of the 24 disciplines. No programs are offered in law, military studies, or commercial services. • Online course offerings are limited to only 14 of the 21 broad disciplines. The college does not offer online instruction in agriculture, architecture, environmental sciece, biological science, health, family&consumer sciences, and psychology.

  14. Enrollment by Discipline • The top five disciplines in terms of online course enrollment in the past five years include the following: • Humanities (Letters) • Business and Management • Mathematics • Information Technology • Social Sciences

  15. Enrollment by Discipline2000-01 to 2004-05

  16. Enrollment by Sub-Discipline • Sub-disciplines are used to categorize areas of study that are narrower than the broad disciplines. The TOP code system has more than 200 sub-disciplines. • The college as a whole offers courses in almost 100 sub-disciplines. • In the past five years, DVC offered online courses in only 24 sub-disciplines.

  17. Enrollment by Sub-Discipline • The top five sub-disciplines in terms of enrollment in online courses are as follows: • English • Mathematics • Accounting • Business • Computer Information Systems

  18. Enrollment in the Top Ten Online Sub-Disciplines, 2000-01 to 2004-05

  19. Enrollment by Course Duration • An average of 75% of online sections are 18 weeks in duration. No other type of duration comes close in section numbers or enrollment to 18 weeks, which had a total of 445 sections and 12,850 student over five years. • The next largest totals were 6-week classes with 1,225 students and 42 sections, or 7.1% of total enrollment in five years. • Courses offered for 9 weeks had 1,187 students and 44 sections or 6.9% of the total enrollment over five years.

  20. National Distance Education Enrollments • National Data for 2000-01 are used for comparison since information for the most recent years is not available. • There was 255% growth in distance education course enrollments in public U.S. 2-year colleges over a six-year period (1994-95 to 2000-01)

  21. National Distance Education Enrollments in 2000-2001

  22. Demographic Profile • The demographic profile of online students includes the following: • Gender • Ethnicity • Age • Educational Goals • Geographical Location (Zip Codes)

  23. Gender of Online Students • Women accounted for 62.4% of online students in fall 2004, compared to 51.5% among all DVC students. • Men accounted for only 36.4% of online students, compared to 45.7% among all DVC students. Considerably more women than men are online students. • From fall 2000 to fall 2004, enrollment of men in online courses increased by 1.7%, while the enrollment of women dropped by 2.3%.

  24. Gender of Students in Online Courses Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004

  25. Ethnicity of Online Students • In fall 2004, White students accounted for 53.0% of the enrollment in online courses, compared to 50.2% in the overall population at DVC. Online enrollment for this group declined by 4.0% in five years. • Asian/Pacific Islander students represented 18.1% of online enrollment, compared to 18.7% at the college. Online enrollment of this group increased by 3.4% in five years. • Online enrollment of Hispanic students stood at 10.2% of the total online enrollment, compared to 12.3% at the college. Online enrollment of this group increased by 1.7% in five years.

  26. Ethnicity of Online Students • African American students accounted for 5.8% of online enrollment in fall 2004, compared to a similar percentage at the college. Online enrollment of this group declined by 1.8% in five years. • The remaining ethnic catagories (Native Americans, Other Non-White, and Unknown had similar breakdowns for online courses and for the college as a whole. • In summary, there are no significant ethnic differences between the students enrolled in online courses and the general student body at DVC.

  27. Ethnicity of Online Students Fall Terms: 2000 to 2004

  28. Age of Online Students • Students at the age of 19 or younger accounted for 18% of the enrollment in online courses, compared to 32% at the college.Online enrollment for this group increased sharply from 1% to 18% in five years. • Another 56% of online students were at the age of 20 to 29 years, compared with 42% of all DVC students. Online enrollment for this group declined slightly by 1% in 5 years. • Students at the age of 30 to 49 represented 21% of online enrollment, compared to 17% at the college. Online enrollment of this group declined sharply by 13% in 5 years.

  29. Age of Online Students • Students at the age of 50 years and older represented 5% of online enrollment, compared to 8% at the college. Online enrollment of this group declined by 3% in 5 years. • In summary, students in their 20s, 30s, and 40s enroll in large numbers and proportions in online courses (77%, compared to 60% at the college). Young students below 20 years and older students of 50+ years prefer face-to-face over online courses.

  30. Age of Online StudentsFall Terms: 2000 to 2004

  31. Educational Goals of Online Students • A significant portion of online students (61.1%) have a transfer goal, compared to 52.1% at DVC. • The proportion of online students with vocational goals (10.2%) was similar to that of DVC as a whole (10.7%) • Those with personal or lifelong learning goals represented 3.6% of online enrollment, compared to 7.0% at DVC. • A relatively larger segment of online students (14.0%) is undecided. This percentage is slightly below that of the college as a whole (17.8%). The proportion of undecided has declined sharply since fall 2000.

  32. Educational Goals of Online and DVC Students, Fall 2000 and Spring 2005

  33. Geographical Distribution of Online Students • In fall 2004, 47% of online students lived in North Central Contra Costa County, compared to 51% for DVC as a whole. • Online students who lived in the southern, eastern, or western parts of the county had a similar percentage to those for DVC as a whole. • There were a slightly higher percentage of online students from Alameda, Solano and other counties, compared to that of DVC as a whole. • In general, the geographical distribution of online students is similar to that of DVC as a whole. However, the longer the distance to the college campus, the higher the likelihood for enrollment in online courses. Geographical expansion of online course offerings would be suitable for the areas located further away from the campus.

  34. Geographical Distribution of Online and DVC Students, Fall 2004

  35. Productivity of Online Courses (WSCH/FTEF) • Productivity is the ratio of weekly student contact hours (WSCH) to full-time equivalent faculty (FTEF), or WSCH/FTEF. Although there is no standard number for productivity, a ratio of 525 WSCH/FTEF is considered desirable. • The five-year average productivity of online courses was 437, compared to 501 for DVC as a whole. • Online productivity grew from 424 in fall 2000 to 482 in spring 2005, while DVC’s productivity dropped from 508 to 472 during the same period. Online courses are becoming more productive. .

  36. Academic Load for Online and DVC 2000 to 2005

  37. Average Class Size • For online students, the average class size stood at 28.5 student per class over five years, compared to 27.4 for DVC students as a whole. • The average class size for the online program was slightly higher than that of DVC as a whole.

  38. Average Class Size for Online and DVC2000 to 2005

  39. Academic Performance of Online Students: Success Rates • Two measures are used to gauge student academic performance: course success and course retention rates. A course success rate is the ratio of the number of grades of A, B, C, and CR over all grades assigned in different courses, including W. On the other hand, a course retention rate is the ratio of the number of all grades except W over all grades. • The average success rate for students enrolled in online courses stood at 55.5%, compared to 70.0% for DVC as a whole, a gap of 14.5%. • The range of success rates for online courses was between 49.0% and 61.6%, compared to a range of 67.7% and 72.5% for all DVC students. The distribution of the success rates for online courses was more dispersed, compared to DVC as a whole.

  40. Academic Performance of Online Students: Retention Rates • During the same five-year period, the average retention rate for online courses was 70.5%, compared to 80.7% for DVC as a whole, a gap of 10.2%. • The range of retention rates for online courses fell between 59.7% and 76.5%, compared to a range of 77.3% to 83.6% for DVC as a whole. A higher rate of dispersion was evident in online courses. • Online students had a much higher average withdrawal rate (29.5%) than DVC students as a whole (19.3%). The withdrawal rates for online students should be reduced. The college needs to discern the reasons for the high rate of withdrawals, and initiate strong efforts to reduce them.

  41. Success Rates for Online and DVC Students, Fall 2000 to Spring 2005

  42. Retention Rates for Online and DVC Students, Fall 2000 to Spring 2005

  43. Predictors of Success in Online Courses • Four major factors may have impacted the academic performance of students enrolled in online courses, including: • The discipline • The teacher • The student • The medium • We will examine the data first, followed by a summary of the focus group discussion.

  44. Predictors of Success in Online Courses • Analysis of the data focuses on the differences in course success and retention rates of online and non-online courses by the following factors: course load, gender, age, and ethnicity. • By focusing on each of these factors, we discovered some significant differences that should be anayzed and studied further. Through focus group discussion, we were able to explain some of these differences and provide recommendations for improvement.

  45. Success Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005 • Online students carrying a full-time load of 12 or more units had a success rate of 59.5%, compared to 75.4% for non-online students, a gap of 15.9%. This group had the highest average success rates for both online and non-online courses. • Online students carrying less than 6 units each term had an average success rate of 57.5%, compared to 72.6% for non-online courses, a gap of 15.1%. • These two groups have some similarities, where the success rates for online students in both groups are not far apart. The same observation may be made about non-online courses.

  46. Success Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005 • Online students carrying 6 to less than 12 units had an average success rate of 51.3%, compared to 64.0% for non-online students, a difference of 12.6%. This was the smallest gap among the three groups organized by unit load. However, this group had the lowest success rates for both online and non-online courses. • Further study of the student profiles for all three groups will be helpful in enhancing our understanding of the differences in success rates.

  47. Success Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

  48. Retention Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005 • The average difference in retention rates between online and non-online students stood at 10.5%. However, the difference among students with a full course load is the greatest (11.6%). • The retention rates of both online and non-online students are highest when they are carrying a full-time course load (12 or more units) or if they carry under 6 units. Lowest are the rates for students who are carrying 6 to less than 12 units (68.8% and 77.5% respectively). • Once again, further study of the profile of students in all groups would be helpful in understanding the differences in retention rates among the groups and between online and non-online students.

  49. Retention Rates by Course Load Fall 2002 to Spring 2005

  50. Success Rates by GenderFall 2002 to Spring 2005 • The average six-term success rate for female online students was significantly lower (57.6%) that that of non-online female students (73.9%). There was a wide gap of 16.3% among the two groups. • Similarly, the success rate for online male students (53.4%) was also significantly below that of non-online males (69.4%). The difference between the average success rates for the two groups was 16.0%. • In summary, while women outperform men among both online and non-online courses, both genders fared better when taking face-to-face courses on campus.

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