How We Decide Jonah Lehrer

1. How We DecideJonah Lehrer

2. Important question: when to use rationality vs. intuition

3. Reason vs. emotion: false dichotomy decisions DEPEND on emotion case history: tumor in orbitofrontal cortex OFC connects “primitive brain” to conscious thought

4. Feelings guide our choices • rational thoughts tend to come AFTER decision has been made • LeDoux: feelings = summary of unconscious info processing • consciousness a small part of what brain does

5. metacognition: only in humans (??) • done by “newer” parts of brain; still have a lot of “bugs” • older parts of brain debugged much longer

6. dopamine—pleasure centers; helps regulate all emotions & helps us decide • Shultz: “prediction neurons” • if expectation confirmed: increased firing rate of “dopamine neurons”

7. if expectation disconfirmed: decreased firing rate of dopamine neurons = prediction error signal • also: if expectation disconfirmed--anterior cingulate cortex (ACC)—error-related negativity signal (“oh, shit” circuit) • unexpected result focuses attention • ACC remembers feedback and adjusts expectations

8. Artificial Intelligence • Deep Blue—chess. rigid, can’t learn from experience • Tesauro—backgammon. learn from playing games (similar to tic-tac-toe matchbox computer) • program predicts moves and refines predictions over thousands of games

9. Artificial Intelligence • similar programs used for high rise elevators, flight schedules • program finds optimal solution itself

10. Iowa Gambling Task • two types of card decks • one high risk, one conservative • conservative has higher long-term payoff • 10 cards: GSR increase for risky deck • 50 cards: start choosing conservative deck more often • 80 cards: can explain deck preference

11. Deliberate Practice • best for improving decisions • focus on mistakes, not successes • “self criticism is the secret to self improvement” • Dunning—”incompetence” & need to use external feedback • Dweck studies

12. When do emotions mislead us? • gambling: anticipation of reward excites dopamine system (note Parkinson’s ex.) • unpredictable rewards—tend not to adapt • incorrect beliefs cause incorrect expecations & actions • e.g., hot hand in basketball • e.g., finding patterns that are not there (T maze ex.)

13. emotions misleading us • e.g., stock chartists • Deal or No Deal—base decisions on how deal “feels” instead of rational analysis • can work, but can mislead when emotions too strong (e.g., overreact to previous bad choice)

14. emotions misleading us • framing: loss aversion • credit cards—less emotional attachment than actual money • small vs. large expenditures: stronger emotional response to large, but numerous small ones add up to more

15. emotions misleading us • adjustable loans • smaller payment NOW: midbrain emotion areas • larger payment LATER: prefrontal cortex for rational planning • decision based on which is more active brain area

16. emotions misleading us • Evolutionary psych “mismatch hypothesis” • our emotions evolved to solve adaptive problems in our evolutionary past; they may not be well-suited to decisions we make in modern life (as described by Loewenstein)

17. “Nudge” • Thaler: we should design choice programs to make good decisions more likely • e.g., his “save more tomorrow” program: ask employees to opt into savings plan that will start in a few months • opt-out vs. opt-in programs

18. Self Control • ability to delay gratification—a consistent personality trait • depends on prefrontal cortex controlling emotion centers • experts better able to control emotions in emergency situations (“deliberate calm”)

19. When to think less • skilled athletes do better with less conscious control; e.g., golf studies • (note: Van de Velde description not completely accurate!!) • poster study: justify choice leads to less happiness with chosen poster; why?

20. When to think less • too much analysis—focus on variables that don’t matter • poster we are happy with should be based on emotion, not logic

21. When to think less • wine tasting: if know brand or price, it affects our rating • should choose blind to get what we actually like best

22. ways we are bad at math • serving sizes affect how much we eat & drink • how far would you drive to save $15? • Ariely study & Social Security nos.

23. too much information • more info—diminishing returns, then negative returns • better to focus on few most important factors • adding low quality info hurts

24. too much info • MRI and back pain study • 2/3 of asymptomatic people had MRI that looked like a problem • doctors aware of this study still wanted MRI for their patients

25. Moral Decisions • are based on emotions • reasons (rationality) comes later • siblings example • personal vs. impersonal decisions: trolley examples • animal examples of fairness sensitivity

26. games and fairness • ultimatum game • dictator game • most people make fair offer to a person

27. brain and decisions • Bechara—brain areas compete for control • competition is mostly unconscious • Knutson & Loewenstein study—consumer choice • nucleus accumbens—dopamine pathways • insula—aversion • prefrontal cortex—rational analysis

28. Knutson & Loewenstein study • could predict choice by which area most active

29. what if deadlocked? • not always best to “force” a decision • better to tolerate uncertainty, gather more information (unless not to decide is to decide)

30. existing beliefs • confirmation bias—avoid info that contradicts existing beliefs; seek confirming info • study: evaluate contradictions by Bush & Kerry

31. existing beliefs • self delusion “feels good” because we enjoy feeling certain • another author: overconfidence is worst cognitive bias • professional pundits study—predictions worse than chance; most famous were worst predictors

32. existing beliefs • ideologies can make people disregard contradictory info • “prisoners of their preconceptions” • real experts learn from dissonant data

33. playing poker • rational approach—know odds, keep track of cards • emotion—a feel for when to bluff, when to fold, etc. • experience—know when to rely on math and when to go with feel • use conscious mind to learn, and intuition to make choices