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JSE Power Hour Lazy Trading

JSE Power Hour Lazy Trading. Simon Brown JustOneLap.com SimonBrown.co.za @ SimonPB. 30 th May 2013. Disclaimer.

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JSE Power Hour Lazy Trading

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  1. JSE Power HourLazy Trading Simon Brown JustOneLap.com SimonBrown.co.za @SimonPB 30th May 2013

  2. Disclaimer The information and opinions stated in this presentation/document/video/webinar are of a general nature, have been prepared solely for information purposes and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to conclude any transaction or enter into any agreement. It is strongly recommended that every recipient seek appropriate professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or representations. All information contained herein is subject to change after publication at any time without notice. The past performance of any investment product is not an indication of future performance.

  3. Creative Commons Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

  4. twitter.com/JustOneLaptwitter.com/SimonPBfacebook.com/JustOneLaptwitter.com/JustOneLaptwitter.com/SimonPBfacebook.com/JustOneLap

  5. Simon Brownwww.JustOneLap.com www.SimonBrown.co.za

  6. What • Simple & lazy • Trade with primary trend • Weekly chart • INDICES only • No gearing • No shorting • Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

  7. What • Indices only (using ETFs) • Indi25 - STXIND • Fini15 - STXFIN • Resi10 - STXRES • MidCap - RMBMID • No STT on ETFs

  8. What • Small number of signals • Trades can run for years • Struggles in sideways market

  9. How • Find primary index trend • Only trade in this direction • After pull back against trend (secondary trend), enter when back in primary trend • Confirm week after trigger

  10. Trends • Primary trend • Exponential moving average relative to each other • 30 and 60 WEEK • 30 > 60 = up (long only) • 30 < 60 = down (no trade)

  11. Trends • Secondary trend • Exponential moving average relative to price • 15 week • Price up through 15 = buy • If primary confirming

  12. Process • Is primary trend is up; • Wait for price to cross up through 15 week EMA = trigger • Confirmation = next week IF green close for week • I enter at 4.30pm on Friday

  13. Exit • Only exit on stop loss on weekly close • Close below 15 week EMA • OR Less aggressive (I use) • Close below 30 week EMA

  14. Indi example Primary trend = UP

  15. Resi example Primary trend = DOWN

  16. Position size • Use 1% rule • Video at http://jol.to/?4J • Buy at 4180c • Stop at 4026c • Risk per share = 154c • Quantity = 154c divided by 1% of portfolio Rand value

  17. Position size • R100,000 portfolio • Buy at 4180c • Stop at 4026c • Risk per share = 154c • 1% = R1,000 • Quantity = R1,000 / 154c • = 649 (cost R27,128.20)

  18. Indi Trades

  19. Indi example Primary trend = UP

  20. Indi Trade • R100,000 portfolio • Buy 649 at 4180c (SL 4026c) • Bid Thur 30th (11am) 4725c • Profit = 545c (13.0%) • Stop loss now 4203c (42,030)

  21. Fini Trades

  22. Fini Trade Primary trend = UP

  23. Fini Trade • R100,000 portfolio • Buy 2,500 at 1140c (SL 1100c) • Bid Thur 30th (11am) 1188c • Profit = 48c (4.2%) • Stop loss now 1122c (11,218)

  24. MidCap Trades

  25. MidCap Trade Primary trend = UP

  26. MidCap Trade • R100,000 portfolio • Buy 6,667 at 558c (SL 543c) • Bid Thur 30th (11am) 556c • Loss = 2c (0.4%) • Stop loss now 547c (54,724)

  27. Resi Trades

  28. Risks • Sideways market • Stop can be large (1% rule)

  29. Re-cap • Simple (5 minutes a week) • 3 moving averages • Monitor weekly • Few trades • Sideways market bleeds • Ideal portfolio size > R50k

  30. Finally • Not advice • Test it • Video - How to test a system • http://jol.to/?5L

  31. ? @SimonPB Facebook.com/JustOneLap info@justonelap.com @JustOneLap

  32. Disclaimer The information and opinions stated in this presentation/document/video/webinar are of a general nature, have been prepared solely for information purposes and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to conclude any transaction or enter into any agreement. It is strongly recommended that every recipient seek appropriate professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or representations. All information contained herein is subject to change after publication at any time without notice. The past performance of any investment product is not an indication of future performance.

  33. Creative Commons Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

  34. JSE Power HourLazy Trading Simon Brown JustOneLap.com SimonBrown.co.za @SimonPB 30th May 2013

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