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FASFEPA

FASFEPA. Joy Frank Florida Association of District School Superintendents September 16, 2009. The Economy. Economy Lost Ground . Florida’s growth now declining. State Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranked us 48 th in the nation in real growth with a decline of (-1.6%) in 2008.

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FASFEPA

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  1. FASFEPA Joy Frank Florida Association of District School Superintendents September 16, 2009

  2. The Economy

  3. Economy Lost Ground • Florida’s growth now declining. • State Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranked us 48th in the nation in real growth with a decline of (-1.6%) in 2008. • In 2005, Florida was ranked 2nd in the nation.

  4. Recession • U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007. • Impact of recession on Florida has been particularly severe. • Longest recession now on record – and projected to last at least through Spring 2010.

  5. The Reasons? • Home prices fell at national level for 1st time since Great Depression (expected to fall 35% from peak). • Financial markets experienced worst credit crunch since Great Depression. • U.S. recession spread globally. • Florida hit hard by two housing related shocks: home prices and credit tightening.

  6. Population Growth Stalled • Population growth is state’s primary engine of economic growth, fueling both employment and income growth. • Population declined for 1st time in 63 years. Population dropped by 58,000 people between 2008-2009.

  7. Population, con’t. • This is 1st decline since large numbers of military personnel left Florida in 1946 after WWII. • Population growth was between 2.0%-2.6% from mid 1990’s to 2006, then began to slow – only reaching 0.7% in 2008. • Population expected to rebound in future – averaging 1.1% between 2025 and 2030.

  8. Unemployment • Unemployment rate for July 2009 – 10.7%; representing 987,000 jobless out of labor force of 9,193,000. Rate is up 4.4% from July 2008 rate. • FL unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than national unemployment rate of 9.4%. • Has not been this high since October 1975 when it was 11.0%. • Projected rate of 11.0% in Spring 2010.

  9. Housing Market • Existing home prices flattening at median price of $148,000 – a 44% decline from peak median price of $257,800 in June 2006. • Foreclosures – in 2008 – 2nd Highest # of Filings (385,309 properties); 2nd Highest Foreclosure Rate (4.52% of housing units received at least 1 filing during year). • May 2009 Highest – Lee, Orange, Miami-Dade, Broward

  10. Economy Will Rebound • By Summer 2010, growth rates will begin a slow return. In the meantime… • Florida housing should turnaround and led by: • Falling home prices begin to attract buyers and clear inventory (FL below national average in June 2009: $181,000 nationally vs. $148,000 in Florida…18.5% below) • Long-run sustainable demand caused by population growth and household formation. • Florida’s unique demographics and aging of baby boom generation.

  11. Revenue • Strength will be slow to return. • Credit Market, while much improved, remains sluggish and still difficult to access. • Global recessionary conditions affect international migration, tourism and spending decisions, as well as exports. • U.S. Consumers responding to massive wealth destruction and tighter credit conditions. • Recovery in Florida housing market not anticipated to begin until latter half of 2010-11 FY.

  12. GR Estimating Conference • Since March GR Estimating Conference, weakening employment picture in Florida and U.S. delayed economic recovery. • Estimate of GR collections for 2009-10 FY reduced by $147.1 million or less than 1% below estimate from March. • For 2010-11 FY, expected revenues were reduced by $44.2 million from earlier forecast.

  13. GR Estimating Conference, cont. • Estimated revenue collections for 2009-10 FY are still less than receipts for 2008-09 FY, by $332.4 million or 1.6%. • Forecast for 2010-11 FY remains positive, hopefully marking an end to four consecutive years of declining revenue receipts.

  14. GR Estimating Conference, cont. • Underlying forecast is assumption that extreme financial and economic stress will improve by late spring 2010. • Thereafter, months of modest growth expected before full recovery begins in spring of 2011. • Revenue collections are not anticipated to exceed 2005-06 level within 3-year forecast horizon.

  15. Declining Enrollment • On statewide basis, K-12 enrollment has been declining for the past 3 years. • 2009-10 legislative appropriation contemplates a further decline of nearly 10,000 FTE. • June forecast, predicts further decline in K-12 enrollment for the 2010-11 year of @2,700 FTE. This forecast reflects increase of over 5000 in virtual school enrollment; so the actual decline in school districts will be greater.

  16. General Revenue FY $Billions FY 2006-07 Actual 26,404.1 FY 2007-08 Actual 24,112.1 FY 2008-09 Estimated 21,025.6 FY 2009-10 Estimated 20,693.2 FY 2010-11 Estimated 22,097.0 FY 2011-12 Estimated 23,914.8 FY 2012-13 Estimated 25,879.4

  17. Ad Valorem Assessments YEAR $Billions 2006 Actual 1,648,441.7 2007 Actual 1,824,905.7 2008 Actual 1,818,991.3 2009 Actual 1,622,946.1 2010 Forecast 1,520,210.2 2011 Forecast 1,537,830.8 2012 Forecast 1,579,456.2

  18. Lottery Revenues FY $Millions FY 2008-09 Actual 1,548.3 FY 2009-10 Estimated 1,438.7 FY 2010-11 Estimated 1,390.1 FY 2011-12 Estimated 1,388.5 FY 2012-13 Estimated 1,411.4

  19. State School Trust Fund FY $Millions FY 2008-9 Actual 218.2 FY 2009-10 Estimated 121.4 FY 2010-11 Estimated 140.7 FY 2011-12 Estimated 147.9 FY 2012-13 Estimated 155.7

  20. PECO (Capital Outlay) FY $Millions FY 2008-09 Actual 1,216.1 FY 2009-10 Estimated 359.3 FY 2010-11 Estimated 161.9 FY 2011-12 Estimated 464.3 FY 2012-13 Estimated 793.4

  21. Additional Issues • Enrollment increases in postsecondary programs • State Prison Population expected to increase 3.0% • VPK expected to increase 3.5% • Medicaid expected to increase 8.7%

  22. Stimulus Funding • Federal Stabilization Allocation in FEFP @$908 million. • Additional funds from ARRA for Title I, IDEA, School Lunch, etc. • Funds are nonrecurring, available for FY 2010-11. • Stimulus funds associated with increased federal matching rate for Medicaid expires 12/2010.

  23. Class Size Reduction • Constitutional caps at classroom level will be implemented in the 2010-11 school year. • Constitutional amendment to Class Size provision failed to pass Legislature in 2009.

  24. Funding Cliff!!!!!

  25. High School Grading System

  26. SB 1908 – Beginning in 2009-10 school year, 50% of school grade will be based on existing FCAT – related factors; remaining 50%: • School’s graduation rate • Performance and participation of students in AP, IB, DE, AICE, and industry certification • Postsecondary readiness of students • Graduation rate of at-risk students • Performance on EOC, when available • Growth or decline from year to year

  27. Graduation Rate • Calculation • In 2009-10 and 2010-11, grad rate calculated using the NGA 4-year cohort method (GEDs counted as non-graduates). • Beginning in 2011-12 – to ensure consistency with federal reporting criteria – rate calculated using new federal uniform graduation rate criteria.

  28. Graduation Rate • Under current regulations, 2011-12 is 1st year states are required to use this method for federal reporting and AYP determinations. • At this time, federal regulations indicate that GEDs, Special Diplomas, and transfers to Adult Education would be counted as non-graduates under this method. • May be subject to change with reauthorization of NCLB.

  29. Participation in Accelerated Coursework – Proposed Calculation Numerator All 9th -12th graders who took exam/course during academic year (weighted) _____________________________________ Denominator All 11th-12th graders

  30. Acceleration Participation Schools earn weighted credit for number exams or courses student takes. Proposed weighting system:

  31. Performance in Accelerated Coursework – Proposed Calculation Numerator Number of successful completions in accelerated coursework (weighted) by student _______________________________________ Denominator All 9th-12th graders who took an accelerated exam/course during academic year

  32. Performance in Accelerated Coursework Weighting Proposal for Performance Measure will be based on credits earned. • Depending on score on AP, IB, and/or AICE, students receive weight in formula based on number of postsecondary courses for which student earns credit as determined by Articulation Coordinating Committee’s Credit-by-Exam Equivalencies list. • Successful completion (“C” or higher) of DE course leads to student earning credit on one course. • Successful passage of Industry Certification exam.

  33. Performance in Accel. Coursework – Successful Completions:

  34. Acceleration Performance In formula, schools earn weighted credit for number of successful completions student earns. Proposed weighting system:

  35. Post2ndary Readiness – Proposed Calculation Numerator Number of students scoring “ready” on SAT, ACT, and/or CPT any time during high school _______________________________________ Denominator On-time high school graduates who score a Level 3 or higher on 10th Grade FCAT in Reading or Math (depending on component)

  36. Graduation Rate for At-Risk Students • Track the 4-year high school graduation rate of students who scored a Level 2 or lower on both FCAT Reading and Mathematics in 8th Grade. • If school does not have at least 10 students in that subgroup, school’s overall graduation rate will be substituted for this measure. (Consistent with what currently done in school grades related to learning gains of lowest performing students or bottom quartile.)

  37. Growth or Decline in Components – Proposal • Schools earn escalating number of points based on magnitude of improvement. • Additional points awarded based on number of points school improved (growth from prior year); up to 20 additional points. • Schools lose 5 points if component declines by at least 10 percentage points. • Examples: • Growth: Acceleration performance improves from 25% to 32%; school earns an additional 7 points resulting in total of 39 (32+7). • Decline: Acceleration performance declines from 30% to 20%; school would lose additional 5 points resulting in total of 15 points (20-5).

  38. Additional Requirement • Law stipulates that for high school to be designated as having a grade of “A”, the school must demonstrate that at-risk students are making adequate progress. • Recommended Threshold: 75%; or • 1 percentage point improvement over prior year if percentage is within 10 points of target. • 5 percentage point improvement over prior year if percentage is beyond 10 points of target. • This requirement is similar to current learning gains requirements for the Low 25%.

  39. High School Grading Matrix New 50% (with points possible)

  40. Legislative Issues • Political Climate • Budget • Budget • Budget • Class Size Reduction • High School Graduation Standards

  41. Sources • The Florida Legislature, Office of Economic and Demographic Research, http://edr.state.fl.us • Agency for Workforce Innovation; www.employflorida.com • Bureau of Economic and Business Research; http://www.bebr.ufl.edu • Smith letter to School Superintendents – 8/14/09 • High School Grading System – PowerPoint by Juan Copa, Bureau Chief, Research & Evaluation, juan.copa@fldoe.org

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