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Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Guidance

Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Guidance. 2011 NOAA Hurricane Conference Anne Myckow - MDL/NWS Arthur Taylor(MDL), John Kuhn (OS21). SLOSH Products. Deterministic / Historic Runs P-Surge P robabilistic Storm Surge Response (<48 hr of landfall) MEOW

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Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Guidance

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  1. Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Guidance 2011 NOAA Hurricane Conference Anne Myckow - MDL/NWS Arthur Taylor(MDL), John Kuhn (OS21)

  2. SLOSH Products • Deterministic / Historic Runs • P-Surge • Probabilistic Storm Surge • Response (<48 hr of landfall) • MEOW • Maximum Envelope Of Water • Readiness (48hr – 120 hr of landfall) • MOM • Maximum Of the MEOWs • Planning / Mitigation (>120 hr of landfall)

  3. Case Study: Hurricane Ivan • Top Left: Real-time deterministic SLOSH run for Ivan at advisory 54, about 10 hours before landfall • Note large (~14ft) surge in Mobile, small (~3ft) surge for Pensacola • Bottom Right: Hindcast best track SLOSH results for Ivan • Track forecast off by approx. 25 mi • Note significant surge in Pensacola (~7 – 10ft), missed by the deterministic

  4. Katrina, Adv 23 Single track forecast for Katrina, with cone of uncertainty represented in grey

  5. Katrina, Adv 23 • Create more forecasts, first varying across the track • Distribution based on known historical errors with NHC’s forecasts • Chose to have forecasts spaced Rmax apart at the 48hr forecast point

  6. Katrina, Adv 23 More forecasts created by varying size (pictured left) as well as intensity and forward speed for all possible tracks, 3 variations for each. Results in 270 total possible forecasts, run within multiple basins; p-surge completes its run in approx. 30min

  7. Probability of Surge >= 5 feet Katrina adv 23

  8. Surge Height Exceeded by 10% of Ensemble Members Katrina adv 23

  9. Rationale for PHISH P-surge gives results above datum, which can be confusing for users, but results above ground level will eliminate datum issues. How to move p-surge to above ground level? • Subtract land from p-surge products • Could work for exceedance product • Unable to subtract land from a probability • Subtract land before combing into probabilities • Expert users may still need above datum product, so cannot replace p-surge • Create a new product (PHISH)

  10. PHISH as of 2011

  11. PHISH Example (Probability) P-surge (above datum) Probabilistic product PHISH (above ground level) Probabilistic product

  12. PHISH Example (Probability) P-surge (above datum) Probabilistic product PHISH (above ground level) Probabilistic product

  13. PHISH Example (Exceedance) P-surge (above datum) Exceedance product PHISH (above ground level) Exceedance product

  14. PHISH Example (Exceedance) P-surge (above datum) Exceedance product PHISH (above ground level) Exceedance product

  15. PHISH in 2012 • PHISH implementations at NCEP • PHISH data transmissions via AWIPS • WMO headers • Cumulative probabilities for 0-6, 0-12, 0-18, …0-78 • Incremental probabilities for 0-6, 6-12, 12-18, …72-78

  16. Future Work • SLOSH + Tides >> PHISH + Tides • Use more recent basins • Shift all basins to NAVD88 • Inundation maps with 30m DEMs • Possible routes: • User subtracts DEM from p-surge exceedance product • Won’t work for probability products • Provide PHISH products at high resolution • Large amount of data transmission (May need paradigm shift)

  17. Working Towards Tropical Cyclone Inundation Products Hurricane season starts Current Phase: Research and Development Experimental Operational Operational Enhancement Depends on Slosh +Tide • Interim product discontinued • 2 Psurge without tide is currently operational

  18. Questions?

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