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Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC

21st Century Communications World Forum. The Future Of Network Intelligence February 23, 2005. Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC. IP Is The 1 st Global Language. IP Is The 1 st Global Language.

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Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC

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  1. 21st Century Communications World Forum The Future Of Network IntelligenceFebruary 23, 2005 Roderick K. Randall Senior Managing Director Vesbridge Partners, LLC

  2. IP Is The 1st Global Language

  3. IP Is The 1st Global Language

  4. The Global Economy is NetworkedAll Economic Activity Adds Traffic

  5. Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom The Global Economy is NetworkedAll Economic Activity Adds Traffic

  6. But, Who Is Going To Profit? Don’t Get Skyped! Message to Telcos…

  7. The Stupid Network is a Stupid Idea • Stupid Networks lead to stupid and unsustainable Business Models • Stupid Networks would ultimately only have price/bit as differentiation… • Leading to rapid commoditization… • Which drives profitability out of all competitors… • Which makes the business un attractive… • Which makes it un-finance-able… • Which makes it un-staff-able with top talent • Which leads to collapse

  8. Content Voice Messaging Multimedia messaging Network Based Security Parental Control Spam Filtering Intelligent Storage Management/ILM Content Dimensions Of Network Intelligence Signaling and Control Control • AIN Services • 800/900, Caller ID/Name • Voice Mail, IVR • Mobility • SMS • SIP • Martini IP Enhanced 3-D Intelligence PSTN Management Management DNHR Self Healing Networks Flow Through Provisioning MPLS

  9. The Future Of Network Intelligence • Defensive • Prevention of Unnecessary profit erosion • Protection from Abusive Offenders • Offensive • Creation and Enablement of new Network Services based revenue streams • Provide for participation in the benefits as well as providing service in the IP Economic Value Chain

  10. Network Services Have Varying Value“Not all bits are created equal” Flat rate under values Unrealized revenue DifferentialCharging Flat rate over prices service Reduces demand Pressure to reduce Drives commoditization Flat Rate Charging $625.00 $ / MByte for traffic $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $1.00 $0.75 $0.20 Video Clip $1.50 per clip MP3 $1 per song E-Mail 10c per E-mail Voice Per minute Web Browsing Gaming MMS 40c per message SMS 10c per message

  11. Network Napster Threat Current Network Deployments Are Vulnerable

  12. SMS/MMS Bypass Leaks Revenue and Profits ManagedIP ManagedIP BSC BSC GPRS IP/ATM AAA Pre- Paid SS7 $625/MByte HLR VLR SMSC 2G Mobile SMS MSC MSC $40/MByte Network Applications RAN 2.5G Ring Tones Games etc. MMS WAP GW MMS C Re- Charge To MSC GPRS RAN Intranet Java IP/ATM MM IM Email Internet • What would happen if this traffic were to shift to the lower priced GPRS bearer Service? • The mobile operator would receive less revenue for the same traffic load

  13. NetworkNapster Threat:App Downloads That Enable Bypass $625/MByte ManagedIP ManagedIP BSC BSC $40/MByte GPRS Advertiser $$$ IP/ATM AAA Pre- Paid SS7 $625/MByte $625/MByte HLR VLR SMSC 2G Mobile SMS MSC MSC $40/MByte $40/MByte Network Applications RAN 2.5G Ring Tones Games etc. MMS WAP GW MMS C Re- Charge To MSC GPRS RAN Intranet Java IP/ATM MM IM Email Internet $1-3/MByte • $625/MByte $1-3/MByte • $30B/year $50M/yr

  14. Session Intelligence Based Scenario Post Paid Pre- Paid Rating ManagedIP ManagedIP BSC BSC GPRS IP/ATM AAA ProQuent Deep Packet ProcessingTM S S D D HI HI Layer 3 Payload Layer 3 Payload A A A A D D Layer 3 Payload S S HI HI Layer 3 Payload D HI Layer 4 Payload D HI Layer 4 Payload A A A A A A D D HI Layer 4 Payload HI Layer 4 Payload A A HI HI Layer 5 Payload Layer 5 Payload HI Layer 5 Payload HI Layer 5 Payload HI HI Layer 6 Payload Layer 6 Payload HI Layer 6 Payload HI Layer 6 Payload HI Layer 7 Payload Layer 7 Payload HI HI HI Layer 7 Payload Layer 7 Payload Application HI App HI Application Application HI HI 2G Mobile SMS Billing Mediation $40/MByte Network Applications RAN Advertiser $$$ 2.5G Ring Tones Games etc. GPRS TDMA WAP GW MMS C Re- Charge To MSC GPRS RAN Intranet Java IP/ATM UMTS CDMA2000 Internet $.10/Msg • 10 cents for mobile short messages, while allowing pictures at 40 cents, songs at $1, and emails at $1 per MByte (min $20)

  15. What if… • You could associate traffic with services? • You could package Network with Applications and/or Content? • You could advantage traffic which is packaged with premium network services from your own Retail service offerings… • Or those from other providers with which you have a paid revenue sharing arrangement? • By not specifically advantaging non recognized or non-compensated traffic, this traffic could be truly given “best effort” service, but only in the sliver of the network set aside for “Cargo Class”… • And they could not just automatically upgrade to First Class just because no one is currently in the seats?

  16. What Are Some Network Intelligence Based Opportunities? A Few Ideas…

  17. VoIPoEverything • VoIP Over Broadband • VoIP Over WiFi • VoIP Over Cordless • VoIP Over Cellular • PTT Over VoIP Over Cellular, WiFi, and Desktops • VoIP Over WiFi Overseas on Airplanes • Cellular/WiFi Convergence, or at least co-habitation • VoIP Over Open Source

  18. Moogle • Google Gone Mobile • Search has now been proven to be Extremely Valuable • Mobility is Extremely Valuable • Think 411 Information on Steroids • Already a $9 Billion/yr Business at $1/Querry + $1/Min • Scenario: • Push-To-Talk Zero delay natural language request • Speech Recognition reception • Back-end search Google style (or MSN or Alta Vista or whatever) • Graphical Scrolling delivery Multi-Modal style using Mega Pixel display Content Optimized for Mobile broadband • Hyper-linkable connections to call, browse, or buy

  19. Network Based Security • Consumers Spend hours per month dealing with Security related issues on their computing devices • Viruses • Worms • Spam • Pop-Ups • Spyware • Phishing/Identity Theft • A Network with Suitable Intelligence can block malicious or curb abusive traffic on inbound and outbound paths • Network Providers have an opportunity to provide this service on behalf of subscribers for a fee • This is a Huge potential business and Mobile is next

  20. Gear Shifting Networks

  21. Gear Shifting Networks • Some Users will pay more occasionally for more speed, or throughput, or less latency, or other QoS/ToS attributes • Some Destinations will pay to “Up Speed” a visiting user in a 1-800 number model to provide the appropriate network quality for the duration of this session • Need Broadband Capable Access even though a particular user may subscribe to a narrowband service; like HDTV is offered on Cable, though a user may not have paid to get it • Scenario: • User buys cheap narrowband service on a BB capable access • He pays $2 per session to “NOS” the connection to BB • He visits “www.DreamVacations.com” who pays the fee to Up Speed his connection for a visceral experience leading to a sale • He may decide to upgrade to BB later, online

  22. Fiber To The Node + Wireless Across the Lawn • Optical Ethernet and PON as base level service • Wireless delivery from street to Subscribers • Not just a bandwidth play • IP based Entertainment from MP3 to HDTV • Packaged Offerings with a variety of bundled services with a variety of price points

  23. Prediction • The Fall Of The Stupid Network • The Rise of A New Cycle of Telecom Economic Opportunity

  24. Thank You! www.vesbridge.com

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