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Impact of climate change on Baltic resorts

Impact of climate change on Baltic resorts. Uldis Bethers, Juris Senņikovs Laboratory for mathematical modelling of environmental and technological processes Faculty of Physics and mathematics University of Latvia. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOUS.

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Impact of climate change on Baltic resorts

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  1. Impact of climate change on Baltic resorts Uldis Bethers, Juris Senņikovs Laboratory for mathematical modelling of environmental and technological processesFaculty of Physics and mathematicsUniversity of Latvia

  2. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOUS Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

  3. Choice of RCM Global scenario Global climate model Regional climate model PRUDENCE - EU FP5 project to assess and evaluate European RCMs. PRUDENCE provides access to modelling results by 22+ European RCM for contemporary climate (reference period, 1961-1990) and climate change scenarios (2071-2100)

  4. Comparison of RCM vs. observations indicates SMHI model most suitable for our region

  5. Data used in this presentation • National research programme “Impact of climate change on Latvian water environment” (2006-2009). WP1 “Scenarious and modelling”. In 2007: • Evaluation of RCM data • Method of RCM data correction • Three long-term climatic data sets for Latvia • Contemporary climate (1961-1990) • Climate change scenario B2 (2071-2100) • Climate change scenario A2 (2071-2100) • Temperature and precipitation data used for analysis in this presentation • Monthly means and their interannual variability considered

  6. Monthly average temperatures Jūrmala

  7. Increase of average monthly temperatures Difference A2-REF

  8. Monthly average precipitation Jūrmala

  9. Change of monthly average precipitation Difference A2-REF

  10. T-P diagram Jūrmala

  11. T-P diagram Palanga

  12. Monthly average parameters - summary • The average temperature in our region will increase by 4° (scenario A2) or 2.6° (scenario B2) • The annual precipitation will increase by 8-11% (scenario A2) or by 4-8% (scenario B2) • The largest temperature increase is expected in Dec-Jan (up to 6°), whilst the smallest in June • Monthly average precipitation will increase in winters (Dec-Feb) and in beggining of summers (Jun), while decrease in summers (Jul-Sep)

  13. Interannual variability of monthly temperature Jūrmala

  14. Interannual variability of monthly precipitation Jūrmala

  15. Interannual variability of monthly means - summary • Maximum values of monthly mean temperatures will increase more than average temperature in summer months (Jul-Sep) • Minimum values of monthly mean temperatures will increase more than average temperatures in winter months (Dec-Jan) • Interannual variation of monthly temperatures will decrease in winters but increase in summers • Interannual variation of monthly precipitation will change insignificantly except for June

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