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Sunny with a Chance

This analysis explores the significant effects of climate and weather on agricultural productivity, focusing on key factors like carbon sequestration and crop yield trends over the decades. It highlights the competition between fuel and feed markets, energy demands rising due to population growth, and the emerging role of bio-fuels. By reviewing historical agricultural data alongside current climate patterns, the article aims to shed light on strategies for optimizing food production in the face of climate change.

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Sunny with a Chance

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  1. Sunny with a Chance Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban-AgAcademy Ag-101 Geislers, 3 miles East

  2. Prairie & Climate The Wealth of the Earth Highest Productivity Known Highest Carbon Sequestration 35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other

  3. 40% Corn, 30% Soybean

  4. Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)

  5. Something like our 8N • Our food acres increased 50%

  6. Ballard Springs PondMillville silt-loam

  7. Reduction of farm land • Fuel market competes with feed market

  8. of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change In 1968 cooling was a major concern, so was population (Paul Ehrlich). “The greatest threat is our energy hunger, I ordered a lunch delivered, from 1400 miles away.” Dr. Hyrum Johnson

  9. Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked

  10. Energy Demand Reduction?

  11. Energy Farming

  12. Bio-Fuel Reduce Atmospheric Carbon? Convert coal to liquid fuel? Economy: Fuel or Food? Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear

  13. Production Outlook

  14. Grain or Fiber? • Improved yield • Maize U. S. yield 1960-2009 x3.0 • Rice World yield 1960-2009 x2.3 • Rice Philippines yield x3.1 • Rice U. S. yield x2.3 I S U

  15. 2030 200 BPA 1979 100 BPA 1956 50 BPA I S U

  16. The Crop Trend Trends change Trend & Volatility Trend is Technology + Climate Change Volatility is Weather + Climate Cycles

  17. Resource Capture

  18. Almost 60 in 1894, 121 in 2007

  19. 1950-1993 Precipitation

  20. Precipitation Change for Iowa

  21. 100+ yr Precipitation

  22. Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years 2 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 5 10

  23. COLD WARM Warm Winters Cold Winters

  24. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.phphttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php

  25. La Niña Outlook 9Mar 2012 • 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer • 60% Chance El Niño begins immediately • 10% Chance of Neutral ? ? • Minimal chance of Neutral SOI • 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60 • 60% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00 • 10% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 • $ from Wisner 2/9/2012 • http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35 Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere-ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340 Today DEC corn $5.60 May corn $6.50

  26. Madden-Julian • Contributing to the weather today • wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/

  27. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

  28. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.html

  29. IL

  30. IL (historical)

  31. IL (historical)

  32. Outlook • Warm through Sat, then not as warm • Thunder storms possible • Then through 24 Mar:

  33. Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. • http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

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