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Observatory on Crime

Observatory on Crime. Rosaria Conte Nicola Lettieri Mario Paolucci Laboratory of Agent Based Social Simulation http://labss.istc.cnr.it. What.

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Observatory on Crime

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  1. Observatory on Crime Rosaria Conte Nicola Lettieri Mario Paolucci Laboratory of Agent Based Social Simulation http://labss.istc.cnr.it

  2. What Systematicstudy of phenomenathatarouseserious social alarm(i.e. organizedcrime, cyber-crime, corruption, financialfraud, drug and armstrafficking, lowcompliance)

  3. Why Costs of corruption: from $800 billion to $2 trillion in current U.S. dollars (source: United Nations, World Bank) Cost of war on terrorism in US since 9/11: over $1 trillion (Source: US Congress Research Service report) – March 2011 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:20190295~menuPK:34457~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf Cost of global drug trade: over $321,6 billion (Source: United Nations report, 2005) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_drug_trade http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/features/GTD-Data-Rivers.aspx

  4. Social Contagion ? Observatory on financialcrisis Observatory on epidemics Crime Observatory LOW COMPLIANCE ORGANIZED CRIME CORRUPTION Extorsion racket systems

  5. Observatory: oneproposaltwopromises Science A A paradigmshift in ourunderstanding of complex, global, socially interactive systems revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies Policy making A deepchange in the way policy makers faceenormous challenges ranging from financial and economic instability to crime, environmental and climate change B

  6. What for • Support decision makers in the public and in the private sector

  7. An innovative approach of crime... • The Observatory will be built upon an innovative scientific view and technological instruments • Increasingspread and prosperity of organized crime systems • Organized crime systems and corruptioncontribute to worldwidewealth! • Criminal activities are interdependent and connected with low compliance phenomenaaffected by cognitive, cultural and social dynamics. • Westillneed a theoryabout the propserity and spread of crime. • Criminal systems like Extortion Racket Systems can be studied as systems establishing a “social order”, based on credible dominance relationships • Effective deterrence • Culture of honor

  8. The Observatory: The Observatory will apply innovative approach characterized as: Cross-methodological whereby real data are compared with simulation-based ones Interdisciplinary benefiting from the joint effort of a consortium including sociologists, political scientists, criminologists, sociologists of law, legal scientists, economists, computer scientists, mathematicians, analytical philosophers and game theorists, as well as cognitive scientists. Computational supplying computational laboratories where performing what-if analyses, testing hypotheses, and addressing policy design issues. Agent-based investigating and making explicit the socio-cognitive and behavioral individual mechanisms inducing people to low compliance.

  9. Aboutcorruption… Mostindexes (Ci,Ti etc.) are subjective! How to do data/reality mining? Where to put sensor? Major scientificproblems.

  10. Forecast social failures and crime dynamics in interaction with other social phenomena illegal systems flourish in typologies, frequency, spreading, and related costs. Can we predict the next step in crime spread/flow?

  11. Help coordinate and design law-making, policy modelling… • Global threatsneed global answers • Criminalactivities are oftenpunished and regulated in different ways in differenteuropeancountries… (PETRA RESKI) • European and nationalpoliciesneedcoordination and harmonizationatdifferentlevels (SEMIRA PROJECT):

  12. Expectedoutcomes

  13. Crime Observatory… howitshould work.

  14. About the stakeholders…

  15. About experts… Henri Berestycki (CNRS and EHESS, France) Marc Barthelemy (CEA-Saclay, France), Jean-Pierre Nadal (CNRS and EHESS, France) AndrzejNowak (Psychology, Poland) David Hales (Computer Sci. UK) Nigel Gilbert (Surrey, UK) Klaus Troitzsch (Political Science, Germany) Jeremy Pitt (Imperial College, UK) Arturo de Salabert (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid) Diego Gambetta (Oxford University, Nuffield College) Antonio La Spina (University of Palermo) Giovanni Sartor (EUI) Maurizio Bonolis (University “La Sapienza” – Sociology) FrancescoForgione (President of Italian Antimafia Commission) John E. Eck (University of Cincinnati Professor of CriminalJustice) Sergio Moccia (University“Federico II” - Criminal Law) Nicola Gratteri (Prosecutor – Antimafia) Donatella Della Porta (EuropeanUniversityInstitute –sociology) Federico Varese (Oxford University) Jakob Svensson (Political Science – Stocklolm) Vittorio Scarano (University of Salerno – Computer Science) Ernesto Fabiani (University of Benevento – Legal Science) Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University, Farifax, VA) Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Mellon – Cognitive Science) Martin Short (CAM, USA) Neil FJohnson (ESSEX UK) Aron Clauset (CO, USA) David Hales and others from P2P COMMUNITY …..

  16. Thankyou!

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