PRESENTATION OF THE INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN (IEP)

1. PRESENTATION OF THE INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN (IEP)

2. BACKGROUND The development of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) was envisaged in the White Paper on Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa of 1998 The purpose and objectives of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) are further anchored in the National Energy Act, 2008 (Act No. 34 of 2008) which also mandates the Minister of Energy to develop, review and publish the IEP. To ensure a coherent and coordinated approach to meeting our energy needs, the IEP will ultimately incorporate detailed sector plans for electricity, gas and liquid fuels INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

3. ENERGY VALUE CHAIN The IEP considers all different energy carriers, all technology options and all key national policy imperatives and proposes an energy mix and policy recommendations which ensures that the energy sector can help achieve these in the most optimal manner.

4. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT – WHAT WE TEST • Agreement of the Purpose of the IEP • Agreement with stakeholders on the minimum content of the IEP • Agreement of the requisite quantitative baselines and assumptions • Assessment of the gaps between expected content and existing content and data • Agreement on the scenarios/pathways to be tested and the associated timelines • Integration of various sector plans (for electricity, gas, liquid fuels…) • Develop Draft IEP for consultation • After the Public Participation process, adoption of the IEP

5. PROBLEM STATEMENT • Energy is the life blood of the economy which impacts on all sectors as well as individual livelihoods. Integrated energy planning is required to ensure that future energy service needs can be met in the most cost effective, efficient and socially beneficial manner, also considering environmental impacts. • A lack of coordinated and integrated national planning for the energy sector has led to underinvestment in much needed energy infrastructure. • There is currently inadequate supply in both the electricity and liquid fuel industries due to a lack of timely investments in new capacity. • Electricity generation is constrained due to insufficient capacity and inadequate availability of existing infrastructure. • There is a high dependence on import of liquid fuels as the current production capacity does not meet national and export demand. No investments have been made in new capacity since the start of the new democracy. • Planning at individual organisation level is commercially driven and therefore investments which are required in order to ensure that the policy objectives of the country have been left under invested. • The IEP aims to guide future energy infrastructure investments, identify and recommend policy development to shape the future energy landscape of the country. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

6. 8 KEY OBJECTIVES Ensure Security of Supply Minimise Cost of Energy Promote Energy Access Social Development Economic Development IEP Promote Job Creation and Localisation Promote Energy Efficiency Environmental Sustainability Diversify Supply Sources Minimise Environmental Impacts Minimise Water Consumption INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

7. IEP AND OTHER SECTOR PLANS • Informs development of future energy sector roadmaps • Provides feedback to development & review of external policies The IEP takes into consideration existing policies Solar Energy Technology Road Map Transmission Development Plan Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Distribution Infrastructure Plan Biofuels Strategy Gas Roadmap (GUMP) Electricity Roadmap Renewable Energy Roadmap Liquid Fuels Roadmap Coal Roadmap Security of Supply Diversity of Supply Energy Efficiency Strategy Carbon Tax Policy Universal Energy Access Strategy Beneficiation Strategy National Climate Change Policy Transport Plan CLIMATE CHANGE SUPPLY DEMAND IEP 2015 THE INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN (IEP) 2050

8. KEY POLICY ISSUES INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

9. ENERGY PLANNING PROCESS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

10. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

11. ECONOMIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS Source: National Treasury – 2014 Budget INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

12. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

13. Electricity Technology Capital Costs INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

14. DESCRIPTION OF SCENARIOS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

15. MODELED SCENARIOS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

16. MODELED SCENARIOS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

17. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

18. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT • Explore solar augmentation for existing coal-fired power plants • Investigate possibilities for mass production of PV panels locally • Explore innovations that can aid in the reduction of CSP costs • Investigate the role of solar in providing heating needs of industry (starting with light industry) • Explore solar hybridization technologies (solar/gas, solar/diesel) INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

19. Source: DoE Analysis INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

20. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN Source: DoE Analysis

21. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN Source: Doe Analysis

22. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN Source: DoE Analysis

23. THANK YOU INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

24. ANNEXURE – MODEL OUTPUTS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

25. PROJECTED DEMAND PER SCENARIO INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

26. FINAL CONSUMPTION Final Consumption (PJ) INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

27. FINAL CONSUMPTION (PER CARRIER) Final Consumption (PJ) Source: Model Output INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

28. FINAL CONSUMPTION -BIG SWH VERSUS BASE CASE INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN Source: Doe Analysis

29. ENERGY MIX (SUPPLY-SIDE OPTIONS)FOR EACH SCENARIO INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

30. ELECTRICITY GENERATION INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

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32. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN Source: Doe Analysis

33. INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN Source: Doe Analysis

34. ELECTRICITY PRICE PATH INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

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36. LIQUID FUEL SUPPLY INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

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40. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS INTEGRATED ENERGY PLAN

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