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Nutrient Reduction Moneyball

Nutrient Reduction Moneyball. 5 Cities Plus Conference 2019. Nutrient Reduction Moneyball. Nutrient trading drivers and policies Assessment methodology What is a good trade? What can we learn about nutrient trading from baseball ?. Traditional Nutrient Reduction Drivers.

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Nutrient Reduction Moneyball

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  1. Nutrient Reduction Moneyball 5 Cities Plus Conference 2019

  2. Nutrient Reduction Moneyball • Nutrient trading drivers and policies • Assessment methodology • What is a good trade? • What can we learn about nutrient trading from baseball?

  3. Traditional Nutrient Reduction Drivers • Water Quality Standards • Total Maximum Daily Loads • Gulf Hypoxia Nutrient Reduction Plans

  4. 2019 EPA Trading Policy Update • Reiterated EPA’s strong support for water quality trading • Provided guidance regarding use of market-based programs to reduce water pollution • Watershed scale trading • Adaptive management • Credit banking • Establishing baselines • Credit generation for multiple markets • Financing opportunities

  5. Nutrient Removal Goals • Technology-Based Goals • Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR, or Level 1) • 10 mg/L N, 1 mg/L P • Enhanced Nutrient Removal (ENR, or Level 2) • 5 mg/L N, 0.5 mg/L P • Water-Quality Based Goals • Load Reductions to Meet Hypoxia Goals • 45% Overall but Higher Point Source Reductions Typical • Nutrient Criteria or TMDL

  6. Permitting Assumptions and Flexibilities • Seasonal or Annual Effluent Limit Averaging Period • Reduce Operational Impacts (e.g. wet weather) • Mass Limits rather than Concentrations • Facilitates Trading, “Bubble” Permitting • Design Flow vs. Actual Flow • Addressing Far Field Water Quality Impacts • “Bubble Permitting”, or point-to-point trading, is OK

  7. Setting Baselines and Goals

  8. Select Plant Improvement Approaches

  9. Nutrient Removal Portfolios • 6 Facilities • 6 Alternatives (Eliminated least cost-effective L1 and L2) • 6^6 = 46,656 possible treatment portfolios

  10. Generation of Treatment Portfolios (Each Row)

  11. Portfolio Assembly: Nitrogen

  12. Portfolio Assembly: Phosphorous

  13. Optimizing PerformanceEvaluating Trading Between Plants

  14. What is a good trade? Agricultural BMPs

  15. What is a good trade? • Facility dependent • Pollutant dependent • Depends on level of nutrient removal needed

  16. Final thoughts… • We need objective knowledge to evaluate pollutant trading • Computer modeling makes it cost effective to evaluate vast numbers of trade scenarios • Do we have the “right math” to evaluate the value of a trade? • Credit banking, credit generation, and so on…

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